Putin plays on the "Anchorage spirit" again: what the Kremlin is counting on

Panic as a weapon of the Kremlin

In the chaos that the American campaign in Iran brought to the Western world, Russia saw an opportunity to revive the withered "Anchorage spirit".

Last year, this stillborn child of Kremlin propaganda was supposed to achieve the Kremlin's imperial ambitions peacefully: to force the Ukrainians to surrender territory. However, neither the red carpet, nor the handshake and the ride in the same car made the Kremlin leader a "master" and Russia a major league player.

Within a year, the "Anchorage spirit" had lost all traces of imperial relations - only the familiar stench of resentment remained. Russian newspapers were filled with headlines about "The West, dreaming of the collapse of Russia", and in the meantime war had come to Russia's backyard. This violated the unwritten contract between Putin and the Russians - "I can do anything, in return there is no war at home" - and such violations do not go unpunished. Putin has no choice but to blackmail the good old winter.

The lack of PAC-3 missiles (due to the US campaign in Iran) affects the ability of air defense to cover critical infrastructure, which is precisely why the Kremlin is already scaring Ukraine and Europe, spreading panic about a terrible winter. Unfortunately, the helplessness on the ground and the statements of those in power about the need to "end the war before the heating season" are perfectly consistent with this propaganda. Such feelings will create the most favorable negotiating position for the Russians to return to their dreamed-of "Anchorage spirit" and, at the very least, advance the scenario of the Finlandization of Ukraine. And according to maximalist demands, they insist on a Georgian scenario with full control over political and economic processes.

Putin will agree only to a ceasefire that will allow him to declare himself the winner, and then achieve his main goal: to demonstrate the incompetence of NATO as a bloc. He still hopes that by allowing Trump to call for a ceasefire, he can further divide the United States and Europe, and if something goes wrong, he can always blame Ukraine for the collapse of the negotiations and continue to bombard its cities with ballistic missiles. If all goes well, in the absence of visible aggression, Russia's ability to manipulate European politicians will increase - including attempts to block Ukraine's EU accession talks.

What are Ukraine's options in these conditions? The most important thing is not to buy what is being sold for all the money. The Kremlin's main weapon this fall is not ballistics, but moral panic, which, unfortunately, more and more people are succumbing to these days. These waves can be traced even on social networks: after another call to leave the country immediately, there follows a skillful spread of lies about the lifting of the moratorium for parents with many children, and immediately after that another one appears, about the mobilization of childless women.

Nobel laureate Thomas Schelling explained in 1960 in his "Strategy of Conflict": it is easier to force someone to do something with threats if they themselves build the reality of these threats and believe in them in advance. Critical thinking in such conditions becomes no less important than air defense, as an element of defense. Ukraine must enter the negotiations, which will most likely begin in the fall, without any illusions: we will not be able to quickly end in the interests of Ukraine. It is necessary to prepare for a long and difficult negotiation process, in which the main task of Ukraine will be to hold on to its positions and allies. And this is possible only with a cool head.