Is Russia ready to do everything to keep Vučić?

Therefore, the statements of Russian officials and the Russian Ambassador to Serbia, Aleksandr Botsan Kharchenko, can be interpreted not only as support for Vučić, but also as a strong warning to all participants in the protests in Serbia that Russia will not just "let" those who are pro-Russian oriented leave power in Serbia.

This is how Danas' interlocutors assess the latest statement by the Russian ambassador to Belgrade that the West wants to replace President Aleksandar Vučić with a weak politician who would be under the complete control of the European Union, and that the EU is not far from organizing a color revolution in Serbia.

“In fact, there is a desire to remove Vučić and replace him with one of the leaders (conditionally speaking, in quotes) who would be similar to those people who are formally in power in other countries, but are completely subordinate to the European Union,” Botsan-Kharchenko told the Russian agency RIA Novosti.

Kharchenko also stated that the West once expected and demanded that Vučić recognize the independence of Kosovo and renounce support for Republika Srpska, and when it did not get that, it wanted to remove him.

And this is not the first time that the Russian ambassador has judged what is good and what is bad for Serbia. A little over a month ago, he also commented on the student blockades, stating that they undermine and hinder Aleksandar Vučić’s plans, which are based on the economic growth and development of Serbia. And then he stated that since November last year, a “sluggish process of a colored revolution” has been underway in Serbia aimed at “squeezing out” the government.”

Russia considers Serbia its sphere of influence

Commenting on the statements of the Russian diplomat in Belgrade, Branka Latinović, a former ambassador, tells Danas that from the very beginning of the student and, for a long time, civil protests in Serbia, representatives of the Russian authorities were very critical of these events, calling them a colored revolution.

"Dmitry Peskov and Maria Zakharova were clear from the beginning about Russia's attitude towards the protests in Serbia, with Zakharova being much harsher. We should also recall the recent conversation between Patriarch Porfiry and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and that the Kremlin released to the public the part in which the patriarch explains that a colored revolution is taking place in Serbia. Unusual, but it was a clear and unambiguous message from the Kremlin, or rather the Russian president himself, about what he thinks about these events in our country," our interlocutor notes.

According to her, the Russian side has been continuously, at certain intervals, repeating this position, and it is well known what happened with Georgia and what is happening in Ukraine, countries where the color revolution took place, and which Russia considers to be its sphere of influence.

"Therefore, these statements by Russian officials cannot be interpreted only as support for Vučić, but also as a strong warning to all participants in the protests, that Russia is following the developments in our country with concern and that it will not easily "let" those who are pro-Russian oriented leave power in Serbia," notes Latinović.

She emphasizes that Kharchenko's statement that a state of emergency may be introduced in Serbia is inappropriate for an ambassador. The Russian ambassador has interfered in Serbia's internal affairs before, and the government has not reacted to these statements.

"In all this, the question also arises as to what is the reason for the announced return visit of Aleksandar Vučić to Moscow, where he recently attended the May 9th celebration? Is this a re-test of the great powers, and thus putting Serbia in an unenviable position in the context of the current geopolitical situation in Europe," notes the former ambassador.

Vučić was and remains a Russian man

Her colleague, diplomat Srećko Đukić, reminds that Vučić and his regime have been subjected to fierce criticism and attacks from various levels in recent months coming from Moscow. And this criticism, which is noticeable, is happening after the highest-level meeting in Moscow, on May 9, between Vučić and Putin. From the Russian foreign intelligence service, like a cold shower, came the information that the Serbian government, as promised, did not stop the delivery of artillery ammunition, missiles, mortars to Ukraine, so Vučić was left short in Moscow even for a new contract on the delivery of Russian gas, which was postponed to an uncertain September.

Moscow has clearly begun to discipline Belgrade. It is sending a clear message: it is not Russia that the EU is turning a blind eye to Vučić, despite the fact that even after four and a half years he has not imposed a single sanction on Russia. There is no doubt that Moscow treats this fact as something given, unchangeable in the policy of the Serbian regime. However, one should not draw the wrong conclusion from these and other elements of Serbian-Russian relations. Vučić was and remains a Russian man, as is the policy he personifies, the prolonged Russian policy in the Balkans, regardless of how much it suits Serbia's interests," Djukić notes.

He adds that Russia is ready to do everything to preserve both Vučić and his regime. It considers this its obligation to help sovereign regimes of sovereign nation-states, and not at all as interference in internal affairs "as it believes the political West, especially the "colonial EU", is doing.

"Because every change in Serbia brings uncertainty for Moscow, and Moscow does not like change, it is suited to a long-term, unchangeable and questionable ruler, one who has been criticized from all sides, like Lukashenko and others who forgot when they came to power. Moscow will defend him to the last, but will hurry to be the first to greet the new leader who will be born in Belgrade", Đukić assesses.

The arrival of the new Russian ambassador will actually provide an answer to whether Moscow is changing its policy towards Belgrade

Mihajlo Brkić, vice president of the Serbia Center party and a former diplomat, believes that if Russia's position towards Vučić and the ruling SNS in general were assessed solely through the prism of the statements of Russian ambassador Botsan-Kharchenko, it would be said that Russia's support for the regime has been obvious and unchanged for years.

"Of course, the starting point is that the ambassador does not speak on his own behalf but represents the official position of his country. However, things are more complicated, the very influential spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, can often be harsh and even very malicious when assessing Vučić's policy. The fact that the Russian position on the events in Serbia and the ruling regime is not unambiguous is also proven by the recent statement of the respected Russian foreign policy commentator Igor Psheničnikov. He assessed the situation in Serbia completely opposite to Ambassador Botsan-Kharchenko, saying that a national, not a colored revolution, is underway in Serbia," Brkić notes.

According to him, such ambivalence of both official Moscow and the Russian media in their attitudes towards Vučić and the SNS regime actually indicates that he is being treated as, for lack of a better word, an unloved and insincere ally.

"The role of the good policeman towards Vučić and the SNS regime is played by Ambassador Bocan-Kharchenko, whose term is coming to an end. The arrival of the new Russian ambassador will actually provide the answer to whether Moscow is changing its policy towards Belgrade or continuing with the narrative of a colored revolution, which in any case harms Russian interests in Serbia in the long term," says the vice president of SRCA, while his party colleague and vice president of the Forum for International Relations, Duško Lopandić, notes that official Moscow has clearly aligned itself in support of the authorities in Belgrade, and that the latest statements by the Russian ambassador indicate this.

Like rejoices in like

He also recalls the agreements that Aleksandar Vulin, in his official capacity, concluded with Russian state services during the height of his glory, and the result of which is part of the regime's tactics in the fight against student and civic demands for democracy and accountability.

"The Serbian regime is among the leaders in match-fixing and combinations, so it also benefits from Russian support, as has already been shown in the so-called Russian FSB report on the use of a sonic cannon, or advice given on suppressing the "colored" revolution, such as blocking the city center and creating a paramilitary camp, etc. "Russian influence, including the ambassador's interference in internal political issues in Serbia, is as great as the regime allows it to be," says Lopandić.

He also says that it might be good for all Russophiles in Serbia to receive a clear message, if it was not clear to them so far, in which direction the tendencies of the authorities in Moscow are heading, and that cannot be any different than the examples in Belarus and elsewhere.

"And they boil down to supporting the beating of citizens, the persecution of dissenters through arrests and repression, i.e. supporting everything that strengthens the authoritarianism and centralism of the government and the development of a system that is alien to any accountability to the public, or the right of the people to have the last word when it comes to democracy, the work of state institutions, or respect for the law," our interlocutor emphasizes and adds that, according to the Latin proverb - like rejoices in like.

Vučić's departure pulls the rug from under Russia's feet

Nebojša Vujović, a former diplomat, believes that one thing is constant, and that is that Russia only cares about itself and those who allow it to broker and knit its Siberian sweater.

"Unfortunately, Russia is more aware than the West that Vučić's departure bothers it more than the West. Because Vučić's departure pulls the rug from under Russia's feet, and for the West it's just "a few euros more". So, Russia is interfering without knocking and using Vučić's height and Dačić's herculean strength to preserve and expand their Wax Museum through our spine," Vujović concludes.