WORLD MEDIA ON THE CRISIS IN BIH: Harmful influence of Russia and China on the threshold of Europe
The incendiary rhetoric of the member of the Presidency of BiH raises fears that the dormant barrel of gunpowder in the Balkans could ignite again. Dodik has been holding the reins of power in Republika Srpska for 15 years and regularly threatens to secede from the rest of the country, which he openly despises - French media write
A session of the UN Security Council on the situation in BiH will be held today. This time, Russia got what it wanted, behind closed doors - the first comments of the compromise are to extend the mandate of EUFOR forces in BiH if the High Representative in BiH Christian Schmidt does not address the session and his name is practically removed from the Resolution.
As expected, because Russia and China did not even support his appointment.
In BiH, the announced US sanctions for some RS officials have not yet taken effect, and Mathew Palmer announced a new arrival in BiH at the end of the month. At the end of the week, Gabriel Escobar will come to BiH, a man whom many expected to "restrain" Milorad Dodik.
At the hearing in the US Congress American Engagement in the Western Balkans, the importance of these visits was emphasized - the engagement of Matthew Palmer, Special Representative for Electoral Reform in BiH, and Gabriel Escobar, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs and Special Representative for the Western Balkans.
At the hearing, Escobar said that the American leadership is key to stability in BiH, and stressed the importance of resisting "the harmful influence of Russia and China on the threshold of Europe."
Milorad Dodik and Dragan Covic have their first support from their closest neighbors, Croatia and Serbia. After the meetings with the presidents of Serbia and Croatia, Zoran Milanović and Aleksandar Vučić, who knows how many times a phrase about caring for the constituency of the people was placed.
BiH, Kosovo, Montenegro…
The world media covered the crisis in BiH, which is very reminiscent of those from the 1990s. They warn that this crisis may be related to the crisis in the region - in Kosovo and Montenegro. Thus, Politico will write in the text entitled "Alarming echoes of the 1990s spread through the Western Balkans":
- While the talks on the enlargement of the European Union are currently stalled, BiH, Kosovo and Montenegro are a disturbing common factor. The Serbian government actively supports efforts to destabilize them, supports MPs and threatens sovereignty and territorial integrity. The progress made in the region during the 2000s is being reversed, and space is open to those causing trouble. It is time for the EU and NATO to take action together to safeguard the progress that has been made.
In its analysis, the Guardian states that international peacekeeping duties in Bosnia are currently the task of the remaining EU (EUFOR) force of 700 troops:
- NATO retains formal authority based in Sarajevo. A renewal of the annual mandate is due this week in the UN Security Council, but Russia has threatened to block the resolution unless all references to the High Representative are removed, potentially undermining Schmidt's authority as overseer of the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords.
In his first report since taking office in August, Schmidt, a former German government minister, warned that Bosnia was facing "the greatest existential threat in the post-war period".
Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik is threatening to withdraw from state-level institutions, including a national army built with international aid in the last quarter of a century, and to reconstitute Serb forces, the paper said. On October 14, Dodik said he would force the Bosnian army to withdraw from Republika Srpska by surrounding its barracks, and that if the West tried to intervene militarily, he had "friends" who had promised to "support the Serb cause," which is presumed reference to Serbia and Russia.
- The High Representative said that it is possible that there will be a conflict between the Bosnian national law enforcement agencies and the Bosnian Serb police. "If the BiH armed forces split into two or more armies, the level of the international military presence would require a reassessment," Schmidt warned. "The lack of a response to the current situation would jeopardize the Dayton Accords, while instability in BiH would have broader regional implications," he said. "The prospects for further divisions and conflicts are very realistic."
The Kremlin, the Guardian continues, opposed Schmidt's appointment by the Peace Implementation Council:
"I doubt that Russia really wants to abolish the authority of the Office of the High Representative by preventing him from reporting to the Council," a Guardian source in diplomatic circles said.
The Guardian quotes Kurt Bassuener, co-founder and senior contributor to the Council for Democratization Policy, a Berlin-based research center: all previous resolutions. " He added: "And while it doesn't legally undermine the High Representative, it's politically safe as hell."
Even if EUFOR's mandate is renewed, the EU does not have enough appetite to bolster the small forces left in Bosnia. Some member states, especially Hungary, support Dodik.
Dodik: From social democrats to ultranationalists
In the text from October 22, France 24 warns that after more than 25 years of hard-won peace, Milorad Dodik is starting to dismantle what he calls an "impossible state".
- The incendiary rhetoric of the member of the Presidency of BiH provokes fears that a dormant barrel of gunpowder in the Balkans could ignite again. Dodik has held the reins of power in Republika Srpska for 15 years and regularly threatens to secede from the rest of the country, which he openly despises. The tone of the former Social Democrat has become the tone of the ultranationalist and has strengthened in recent months as he presented a plan to break the fragile foundations of BiH, calling it a "failed country" and a Western "experiment" that does not work.
Citing the most important parts of Dodik's plan to break up the state and establish parallel institutions, the media quoted Milorad Dodik as saying:
"We will dispute all that," Dodik promised at a recent press conference, "there is no authority in the world that can stop us."
France 24 states that Milorad Dodik has the tacit support of Moscow for his plan.
Russian media do not cover Russia's influence in BiH to a large extent. Russian RT stands out, often characterized as a propaganda tool of the Russian government. During October, he published several texts on the website in direct or indirect connection with BiH. In mid-October, in a text with the headline "EU Empire", RT wrote that stability in BiH was falling apart and that the EU's efforts to restore that stability only made things worse:
- While Brussels sees itself as someone who selflessly provides security, the reality is that it only makes the situation worse. In fact, the EU has become a major contributor to the country's political conflict, due to its attempts to exert exclusive influence.
According to RT, Russia is provoking the hegemonic ambitions of the West in the region, and the EU blames Moscow for endangering peace.
- After the Cold War, the West contributed to the break-up of Yugoslavia as an independent entity and after that it tried to reassemble its parts under the collective hegemony of the EU and NATO. The West has established a parallel international legal infrastructure separate from international law under the UN Charter.
RT recalls the words of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who condemned the "unacceptable colonial mentality" of the EU in Bosnia. The text repeatedly states that the EU treats BiH as a colony and is in fact to blame for the insecurity of the state.
- As Western dominance declines, the entire parallel international framework is collapsing… The Bonn powers used by the EU High Representative are being used to "dismantle Dayton". Brussels has now blocked all roads for Bosnia to regain its sovereignty - RT writes.
The text discusses the role of the OHR:
- Brussels has unhappily and insincerely accused RS of undermining the "spirit" of the Dayton Agreement by opposing the EU's Dayton powers. Despite the fact that these powers are used to undermine the agreement.
From Moscow's perspective, the situation in Bosnia shows the shortcomings of the disintegrating unipolar order imposed by the West after the Cold War. NATO has monopolized security in Europe and the EU has imposed itself as a "regulatory empire" because neighboring countries have been expected to adopt Brussels regulations and laws to gain access to a huge market… Moscow is therefore likely to offer more support to the RS president, who advocates closing the OHR and restoring sovereignty to Bosnia. The EU should accept a new international distribution of power and work with Russia to develop mutually acceptable solutions. This includes the phasing out of the OHR, which was supposed to exist for two or three years to implement the agreement, but has now existed for more than a quarter of a century and is making laws.
Repeal of reforms
In a report prepared for the UN Security Council, High Representative to BiH Christian Schmidt warns that security and peace are seriously threatened and that the international community must respond urgently to Milorad Dodik's secessionist policies. The announcement of the withdrawal from the long-reached agreements on the transfer of entity competencies in the field of defense, indirect taxes, the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council, caused the escalation of the crisis:
- These moves would go back 15 years only in the field of defense reform, and then in building confidence and security… The goal of this policy is to annul hard-won reforms in the last 26 years… Dodik wants to withdraw RS from the constitutional order established under Annex 4 Of the General Framework Agreement for Peace - the report states.
Christian Schmidt warns the international community that the unilateral withdrawal of any entity from state institutions is not possible under the constitutional framework and would lead to the collapse of those institutions and the functioning of the state:
- Mr. Dodik revealed his goal - an independent RS within BiH, he wrote, citing the genesis of the current situation, recalling Dodik's earlier moves, and especially obstructions in connection with amendments to the law punishing genocide denial.
Although Milorad Dodik said in public that his goal was not to provoke war, Schmidt made it clear that any attempt to overthrow state-level judicial institutions or law enforcement agencies could result in conflicts:
- RS will seek the help of unnamed friends who convinced him of their readiness in this regard… If they succeed in this endeavor, RS authorities would establish a new constitutional and legal framework that removes RS from Dayton architecture, especially from the BiH constitutional order. Ignoring or diminishing this state of affairs could have dangerous implications for the region and beyond, Schmidt warned.
The report also touched on the government crisis in the Federation of BiH, stating that the FBiH Government has not been appointed for three years since the 2018 General Elections. He reminded of the weak performance of institutions and unrealized electoral reforms.
The influence that Russia is now exerting on the fate of BiH is only the culmination of many years of relations. We also wrote that the actions on the line Moscow - Belgrade - Dodik - Covic are becoming synchronized: at the end of 2020, on the eve of the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Dodik goes to visit Croatian President Zoran Milanovic, and then leads Dragan Covic to Aleksandar Vucic. Everything is repeated a year later, during the latest offensive on the sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina carried out by Dodik and Covic with the support of Russia - Milanovic receives Dodik again in Zagreb, and Vucic welcomes Covic.
In a series of articles in previous years, the magazine wrote about the growing influence of Russia in BiH, from the influence on the judicial system, the process of changing the election law, security and intelligence system, then realized through humanitarian organizations and various associations, all for maintaining (i) economic interests such as opening up the drug market even to untested drugs from Russia.