Why Vladimir Putin needs Alexander Lukashenko's army

Vladimir Putin needs Alexander Lukashenko and his participation in the war against Ukraine

The long talks between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko were held on March 11 without final statements for the press. However, observers understand what Russian and Belarusian rulers have been talking about and why their talks are so frequent. Putin needs Lukashenko and his participation in the war against Ukraine. And this is in the literal sense of the word. Lukashenko is already giving the territory of Belarus for Russian aggression against Ukraine. But for the President of Russia, it is important that the Belarusian army participates in the invasion.

Why does the Russian president need this? And why was he supposed to hold a live meeting of the Russian Security Council, which decided to recognize the independence of the so-called "people's republics" of Donbass? Share the responsibility with the allies, show that he enjoys the full support of the entire Russian top leadership. If there was no one who could say that he did not participate in making this criminal decision that enabled Vladimir Putin to attack Ukraine.

The story is the same with Alexander Lukashenko. Putin needs the Belarusian ruler to be linked to him by a chain of joint war crimes. But not just because. As the Russian president gathers resources to continue the war, he needs the Belarusian military to keep Ukrainian defenders from hesitating.

Lukashenko understands all this perfectly. In addition, unlike Putin, he is at the head of a country whose large population recently went on mass protests against his rule and falsifying the results of the last presidential election in Belarus.

Lukashenko has every reason to doubt the loyalty of his own citizens and the fighting ability of his own army. He cannot help but realize that the death of Belarusian soldiers in this shameful war could lead to completely different consequences in Belarus than in Russia. After all, Belarusian stability is literally in question.

That is why Lukashenko does not need this war. Yes, he voluntarily participates in Putin's funniest propaganda wars. It is no coincidence that at the last meeting with his Russian counterpart, he brought a map that was supposed to illustrate

the preparations for Ukraine's attack on Belarus. But one thing is a terrible lie, and quite another - a terrible war.

Both Lukashenko and Putin are weak

However, it is unknown how much Lukashenko can resist Putin's wishes. After the protest in 2020, he lost his subjectivity and ability to maneuver. If before the mass protests in Belarus Lukashenko could still afford relative independence in foreign policy in the post-Soviet space, now that is out of the question. But, on the other hand, it is not only Lukashenko who is weak. Putin, too, is weak.

The Belarusian ruler cannot help but see that the sanctions of the civilized world against Russia are sending the Russian economy into a real knockout. And in this case, how will Russia subsidize Belarus - especially since this country is also under Western sanctions for participating in the war?

Lukashenko may doubt that sooner or later he will have to survive without Putin - or at least without Putin's support. Can he afford to burn all the bridges and take part in the attack on the neighboring state? Will Putin be able to protect him from the wrath of his own people under the new conditions? Lukashenko cannot but ask himself all these questions during his meetings with the Russian president. That's why he's in no hurry to fight.