Threat from Belarus: Russia May Mobilize 100,000 Troops for a Potential Offensive

Russia may be preparing a new large-scale mobilization wave for the war against Ukraine. According to sources in the Defense Forces, the Kremlin is considering the possibility of recruiting an additional 100,000 people, who could be used in the future for a new operation in northern Ukraine. 

As noted in the material of the publication "RBK-Ukraine", Moscow is currently considering several scenarios for the development of events near the Ukrainian border - from an attempt to create a "buffer zone" in the Chernihiv region to potential pressure in the direction of Kiev. 

In particular, among the plans of the Russian Federation is a new wave of mobilization, similar to the one that Russia carried out in the fall of 2022, after heavy losses at the front. Then the Kremlin massively mobilized people into the army, and now, according to the publication's sources, it may again resort to such a step in order to get an additional reserve for the war. According to the interlocutor of RBC-Ukraine, it is precisely these 100,000 soldiers that Russia potentially plans to use in the northern direction, if a decision is made to launch a new offensive. 

At the same time, there are currently not enough Russian forces near the Ukrainian border for a major offensive operation. Therefore, according to sources, even if Russia prepares a new offensive, it will take several more months to accumulate resources and manpower. In addition, according to the publication's sources, the Russian leadership is currently considering five possible scenarios for action in the north. 

It is worth noting that, in general, among the five main motives of Putin in the north, the following were identified: 

- tying up the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the north; 

- transferring troops from the Donetsk region; 

- creating a buffer zone; 

- exerting psychological pressure and attempting to take over the country's leadership (in the event of an attack on Kiev). 

The most realistic is called an attempt to enter the border areas of the Chernihiv region and create there the so-called "buffer zone" with a depth of approximately 10 to 20 kilometers. At the same time, the interlocutors consider the option of a re-attack on Kiev to be unlikely, since such a scenario would require a much larger group of troops from Russia, which is currently not present near the border. 

Currently, the Ukrainian authorities are closely monitoring the situation in Belarus. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to persuade Alexander Lukashenko to become more actively involved in a new phase of the war against Ukraine. In turn, Lukashenko himself publicly assures that Belarus does not plan to enter the war unless, in his words, there is "aggression" from Ukraine. 

In general, the situation on the northern border is currently being actively monitored. On the Belarusian side, according to sources, there are approximately 1,900 Belarusian soldiers near the border - four battalions that are constantly rotated. Also, there are not enough Russian troops either in Belarus or near the Bryansk region. 

However, the Ukrainian military continues to monitor important signals, in particular - the active development of military infrastructure in the south of Belarus. This includes new logistics routes, the construction of training grounds and bases that Russian troops could use in the future. 

In addition, the Defense Forces are paying attention to the possible intensification of intelligence activities and the activity of sabotage groups near the northern border. So far, no such signs have been officially recorded, but this direction remains under constant control of Ukrainian intelligence services. 

Recall that President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the strengthening of defense in the northern direction due to the threat associated with the possible use of the territory of Belarus by Russia for attacks on Ukraine. According to him, Ukraine has the resources to strengthen the border and conduct preventive work, and is also ready to respond to any threats from Russian troops and their allies. It is worth noting that Alexander Lukashenko stated that he was ready to meet with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky anywhere in Belarus or Ukraine. In response to his proposal, the OP stated that the words of the Belarusian dictator should not be trusted.