The marathon towards the EU feeds the Russian propaganda in Macedonia Sonja Kramarska

The marathon towards the EU and the obscured perspective due to the indecisiveness of the Brussels bureaucracy have left room for Russian influence in Macedonia as well.

It has been a long time since the former Prime Minister Dimitar Kovačevski, annoyed by criticism of the French proposal and the requested constitutional changes, shouted that “Russian bots and paid politicians and analysts” are spreading lies and hysteria that they will be Bulgarianized and assimilated. “They have to say that for financial reasons”, he said.

His statement was met with fierce reactions but, basically, it has rekindled the bidding about the magnitude of Russian interference in Macedonia’s path to the European Union. The marathon towards the EU and the obscured perspective due to the indecisiveness of the Brussels bureaucracy and the blockages of bilateral disputes have left, according to analysts, room for Russian influence and have fueled the dreams of some domestic groups that Macedonia’s prosperity can be achieved through closeness and cooperation with its Russian brothers.

Macedonia, however, right since its independence, declared a policy that is opposite of the policy desired by Russia. It opted for NATO and the EU – the two most powerful world organizations, which are not to the Kremlin’s liking.

On the other hand, some of the local population grew up with mandatory Russian literature in education, with stories about their parents’ and grandparents’ excursions to Russia and the luxurious fur coats and Russian watches purchased in the boutiques of Moscow and Leningrad.

That complicates the story a bit.

Today, when the Western Balkans region is of vital importance to the EU and the US, it has been shown that Russia continues to aim to influence identity policy, religious ties and economic interests in the region, using various means of projecting soft power, including the media, the Orthodox Church, businesses, biker groups that also exist in Skopje, and others. Former US Secretary of State John Kerry once gave statement on that topic, saying that Macedonia, along with Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Moldova and Georgia, are in the line of fire, that is, they are the targets of Russian influence.

Pro-Russian narratives are gaining momentum

Meanwhile, Macedonia has also become a member of NATO, under the name ‘North Macedonia’, and Russian interference appears to have continued, albeit with varying intensity.

The analysis of the Institute for Communication Studies on “Russian Interference and Information Manipulation in North Macedonia: Exploiting Vulnerability through Bilateral

Disputes” reveals that North Macedonia continues to be the target of coordinated Russian activities. It also points out that the Metamorphosis Foundation’s Report on foreign manipulation and information interference in Macedonia warns of the continued amplification of pro-Russian narratives in the country through various channels.

The same study also points out that the 2018 referendum on the Prespa Agreement was a key flashpoint and that the turnout was deliberately suppressed by disinformation campaigns. “Then-US Secretary of Defense James Mattis directly warned that Russia was funding and spreading false narratives to reduce turnout and encourage boycotts”, the analysis points out.

Seven years have passed since 2018 – a period of intense political and security turbulence on the world stage, with Russia as the main actor. The attack on Ukraine shifted the balance of power among world powers and put Russia on the map of aggressors, while President Putin’s policies became the greatest threat to peace. Macedonia sided with Ukraine, thus becoming a hostile country to Russia. It seems, however, that this has not diminished Russia’s interest in exerting influence over a NATO member state such as Macedonia.

The Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) warned a few days ago that even with reduced political and economic resources since 2022, Russia continues to pursue a strategy of disruption in the Western Balkans, supporting local actors and narratives that fuel instability.

Serbian pro-Russian television stations broadcasting in Macedonia

A prime example of this are the social networks that are abuzz with comments in favor of Russia. “A huge majority of the people is with Russia and the government takes money from

the EU and does whatever it is told” – this is just one of the many comments on the social networks left by a citizen of North Macedonia about the policy of the current government in the country. The comments mostly glorify Russia’s military power and the fear of NATO, the EU and the US that Putin will not stop at aggression against Ukraine but will expand military actions to neighboring countries as well.

An interesting moment is that there is a strong polarization – the official policy of our country is pro-Western while the significant part of the supporters of the ruling right spread stories on the social networks about the justification of the Russian aggression against Ukraine and about the alleged fascist regime led by Zelensky. Skopje has officially joined the policy of the EU and the US in support of Kiev, and this goes with both the current and previous governments, thus fully harmonizing its foreign policy with the Union and with the sanctions that were imposed on Russia. At the same time, there was also expulsion of Embassy personnel. As a result, Russia declared Macedonia an enemy state along with about twenty other countries.

But the official condemnation of Russia by the Macedonian side does not seem to apply to the Macedonian airwaves as well – they are used to spread Russian narratives through the presence of several Serbian television stations with an open pro-Russian orientation. These television stations invite pro-Russian military analysts every night to analyze the successful advance of Russian forces on the front in Ukraine, fully accepting the Kremlin’s lies that Russia is liberating occupied territories. At the same time, several times a day, every day, Russian soap operas are broadcast, advertising Russia’s great technological progress in all areas and presenting Russia as a country of modern, rich and happy people.

The EU has already banned Russian media such as Voice of Europe, RIA Novosti, Izvestia and Rossiyskaya Gazeta, assessing them as instruments for distorting the facts about the Russian attack on Ukraine. In Macedonia, although there are formally no pro-Russian traditional media, the online sphere provides access to media that are not broadcast in our country and can be followed online. The organization “Reporters Without Borders” published, one year ago, a story titled “From Russia to Serbia: How ‘Russia Today’ Spreads Kremlin Propaganda in the Balkans Despite EU Sanctions.”

The story alleges that thanks to the Serbian government’s control of the media and a favorable political environment, RT – formerly Russia Today – uses its Belgrade office to adapt Kremlin narratives before spreading them across Southeast Europe. In doing so, Reporters Without Borders called on the European Union and its member states to hold Serbia accountable for hosting Vladimir Putin’s lie factory.

Reaction of the Minister of Foreign Affairs

In view of the above, it should not come to us as a surprise the warning statement given by the Macedonian Minister of foreign affairs, Mr. Timcho Mucunski, for Euronews about the growing Russian influence in the Western Balkans if the EU does not quickly and clearly commit to enlargement. “There are malign actors who want to point fingers and say: do you really believe that the EU is honest in its intention to enlarge? Look at what they are doing to the Macedonians”, Mucunski said.

As confirmation of the Minister’s statement, the media outlets in Macedonia analyzed that the recent local elections revealed signs of Russian influence through the rhetoric and activities of certain politicians. “While all of them have marginal support, this shows that Moscow has ideological and political advocates on the Macedonian local stage and signals an attempt to change the political narrative, especially in relation to Euro-Atlantic integration,” the Reports say. The openly pro-Russian party “United Macedonia” is cited as an example, which publicly advocates deepening ties with Russia and turning its back on the EU and the US.

Macedonia has a Deputy Prime Minister from the Democratic Party of Serbs who is known for his close relations with Moscow and for his participation in Russian security forums, where he affirms his commitment to deepening bilateral cooperation. He also does not hide that he is a personal friend of Moscow’s favorite, Milorad Dodik. The analysis which was recently published by the Italian Institute for International Political Studies dedicated to Russian interference in the Western Balkans, reports that Dodik has met with Putin nine times on his turf since 2022.

And we also have a parliamentary party whose leader attended the military parade in Moscow to celebrate the Victory Day over Fascism at the invitation of the Chairman of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), Gennady Zyuganov.

If we also take a look at the findings included the Study carried out by the civil association MOST regarding Russian propaganda, influence and disinformation, one can come to the conclusion that Russian influence in Macedonia is also carried out by promoting the Slavic-Orthodox brotherhood and the use of the church.

MOST analyzed four thousand journalistic articles and ten thousand Facebook statuses, noting massive quoting and presence of Kremlin representatives in the online space in Macedonia, use of media outlets that are under Russian state control as sources in articles, pro-Russian messages from politicians in the region, who are also Russian allies, as well as multiple cases of coordinated mass dissemination of content on Facebook through a well-established and coordinated Russian infrastructure.

Given that Facebook does not vet the content it publishes, unlike more traditional media outlets, this social network remains fertile ground for the spread of Russian propaganda. It is well known that young people get more information online than through traditional media, which drastically increases their chances of exposure to Russian influence. The good news, however, is that the Macedonian mainstream politics is distancing itself from, and is responding to, the phenomena of Russian interference.