Peace (is) not possible

There is a constant expectation of change in the air. The unprecedented intensity of negotiations forms a demand and fuels the hope that "this will end soon".

Emotions are particularly heightened on the eve of the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, because few could have imagined on February 24, 2022 what a sea of suffering and tears would have to be crossed: "We thought it was the moon. It turned out to be an abyss".

The elephant in the room

Numerous Ukrainian meetings with Americans and Europeans, as well as the various settlement plans, security guarantees and accompanying documents they generated, formed a backdrop that was more reassuring than convincing.
The absence of the main figure and the real addressee for decisions - Russia as an aggressor state - created a constant "elephant in the room" effect. After all, regardless of the number of previous statements and forums held, the order for a ceasefire must be given in the same place where the order for its beginning was given. And it definitely won't be in Miami, Oman or Brussels.
Therefore, in order to assess the prospects for ending or escalating the war, it is worth understanding the motives of the person who is solely responsible for it.
In 2026, the correct answer is as critical as in 2022 the question: Will there be an invasion? The difference in assessment implies diametrically opposed strategies - to start forging swords or to continue collecting funds to make the maximum number of swords.

A dark fixed idea

Although the psychoanalysis of Putin's personality - a man who travels in an armored train and does not provide support - is a thankless task, the logic of the actions is simple: the supporting structure of the worldview remains the question of immortality and place in history - how he and his time will be described in textbooks.
The years and the approach of the finale have led to this dark fixed idea - a fixation on the Polovtsy, the Rurikovichs and the tsars. And this is bad news. Bad because the decision to launch the so-called SVO, which grew into a large-scale war, from the very beginning implied the final outcome - "all or nothing".
The formulas "Putin is a land collector, the heir of Peter I and Catherine the Great" or "Putin is a war criminal, dictator and vassal of China" leave an extremely narrow field for compromises. And four years of Ukrainian resistance have critically narrowed Putin's ability to write a "heroic chronicle", bringing him ever closer to the scenario of a shameful war.

Misery and ridicule

By applying this measure of "historical size" to the various options for peace agreements, one can assess their viability: whether they bring the ruler of the Kremlin closer to the realization of his messianic goals or, on the contrary, move him away from them.
As of today, even the options most loyal to the Kremlin are essentially capitulating to Russia. All that the West can offer and Ukraine can agree to is a pittance and mockery.
Even if America recognizes Crimea as Russian, will this decision last until the next election or presidential impeachment in the US?
Include in the Constitution of Ukraine that the country will not join NATO? After one, maximum two election cycles, the next majority will unanimously abolish this norm.
Demands related to the Russian language, limitations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official renunciation of the territory are possible only in the case of the Russian flag above the Maidan, concentration camps and complete occupation. Russia is ready for this - is its military maximum today reduced to attempts to complete the TE-5 in Kiev?

Bet on time

The only minimally acceptable option for the Kremlin is the official recognition of the loss of the occupied territories by Ukraine (first of all) and the West. Only this solution can at least partially justify the catastrophic consequences of the war for Russia, and not plant the eternally smoldering Bickford rope of Ukrainian resentment.
"Finlandization" - as a historical precedent. Ukraine adopts a document of irreversible legal force, which legalizes and recognizes the seizure of the territory of a sovereign state.
What is not a way out? Several decades have passed: Finland is there, Russia is there, and there are no claims - "everything is silent, because it is prosperous." But since such a development of events is hardly possible in the near future, the question arises: what to wait for?
Putin is ready to continue. When it comes to eternity, the price does not matter. The entire experience of 26 years of holding power suggests: time is the main ally. We must wait. A bad combination will sooner or later change for the better. Who else has in reserve for a miserable four or five years of an electoral term, but, in fact, a political eternity - especially if you plan to live to be one hundred and fifty? The whole problem is that even the most loyal ally can betray.

Two realities

The scale of desire has many times exceeded the size of the remaining time, shrinking at the speed of shagreen leather.
"Civilizational break", "overexertion" - what Russian Eurasians like to think about the West, can be observed today in relation to Russia itself. The cracks of the economic and social crisis are spreading with increasing speed across the Russian authoritarian ice.
However, all these "storm warnings" do not prevent Putin from existing in his own reality, in which Ukraine is approaching the point of "breakdown", when:

- the Ukrainian front "will bend and fall apart";

- the rear will freeze and rebel;

- we will buy America, we will drive Europe away.

In these ideas - the UNR "triangle of death" cosplay from 1919: the "reds" from the north, the "whites" from the east, the Poles from the west and the burning fire of the ataman's anarchy in the center. 2026 version: Russians from the East and North, Europe turned from the West and internal destabilization.
But there is another reality - "on the ground", where for Russia:
– minimal tactical gains;
– colossal human losses;
– lack of chances to win.

Stall as a condition for exit

What can change the situation and form a request in the Kremlin for the reality of the results and exit from the war? It is the same set of circumstances that Moscow is counting on in relation to Ukraine: a crisis at the front, internal Russian tensions and external pressure.
Ukraine's homework is to create a situation of long and stable positional stagnation. Blocking the possibility of further Russian advancement. Minimizing terror in the Ukrainian background. Demonstrating inner resilience and stability.
Putin is not seeking peace – he is negotiating his place in history.
All he is offered today is a choice between misery and ridicule: fragments of Donbas and the “spirit of Anchorage” instead of the “new Yalta” and USSR-2.0. In this logic, compromise is tantamount to capitulation.
In the Kremlin’s reality, Ukraine can still be pressed and frozen, and the West can be tired and wait. Hence the bet on time as the main resource. But the calculation of its limitlessness rests on the limitation of the resources themselves, which causes a general overload of the system. And although when it comes to “eternity”, the price does not matter, this rule is valid only as long as the system can withstand it.