ISW warns of coordinated Russian campaign against Europe: NATO must prepare for possible attacks

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns that the Kremlin is developing a coordinated series of actions against Europe, while NATO should also prepare for the possibility of a limited conventional Russian attack in the near future.

In a new special report, ISW analyzes the Russian threat to Europe and assesses that NATO countries need to understand and openly discuss Moscow's ongoing actions, as well as the changing nature of the Russian conventional threat.

According to the report, Russia has long considered itself in a long-term conflict with the West, but has recently escalated this confrontation through a series of coordinated operations against European targets even outside the territory of Ukraine.

ISW argues that European states should treat these developments as part of a broader and coordinated campaign, and not as isolated incidents or mere “provocations”.

According to the Institute, these are kinetic and non-kinetic actions against military and civilian targets of NATO countries.

ISW welcomes the fact that European officials are increasingly speaking openly about Russian activities. However, it believes that the way NATO and some European countries describe these cases continues to obscure the coordinated nature of Moscow's operations.

The report also raises concerns about the possibility of a limited Russian conventional attack against NATO.

Such a scenario, according to ISW's analysis, may not pose an existential military threat to the Alliance, but could have major political consequences, especially if the aim were to divide member countries.
The institute warns that such action could happen sooner than many European officials currently anticipate.
For this reason, ISW calls for NATO and European countries to create a common understanding of the threat and coordinate policies to respond to ongoing Russian operations.

The report identifies three main tasks for NATO and Europe.

The first is identifying and responding to ongoing Russian campaigns against Europe, using clear language about the nature of these actions.
The second is to accelerate preparations for the possibility of a limited conventional Russian attack in the near future, a scenario that, according to ISW, NATO is still not sufficiently considering.

The third task is related to using the experience of the war in Ukraine to understand the changing nature of modern warfare and to strengthen NATO's ability to deter or confront the Russian military threat.

ISW emphasizes that these three challenges are interrelated and must be addressed as a whole.

According to the Institute, NATO and Europe should discuss openly and without delay possible responses to the Russian threat and the risk of further actions by Moscow to directly test or attack the Alliance./TheGeopost