Estonia warns of rising Russian pressure and global power shifts in new report

Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service has published its 2026 yearbook, offering a stark assessment of the security environment facing the Baltic state. The 86-page report argues that Russia remains the principal threat, even as it projects a facade of diplomatic engagement, Estonia’s national broadcaster ERR.ee reported on February 12.

According to the agency, the Kremlin is only pretending to pursue peace talks, seeking instead to repair bilateral ties with Washington and formalise Ukraine’s defeat. Despite any perceived thaw, Moscow continues to view the United States as its main adversary while striving to reshape the international order and assert great-power status.

The report says Russia’s attempt to unseat Moldova’s pro-Western government has failed, but further efforts are likely. A US-brokered breakthrough between Armenia and Azerbaijan is seen as a geopolitical setback for Moscow, which may respond with a broad influence campaign in Armenia next year.

In the Baltic Sea region – now labelled by Moscow as the “Baltic–Scandinavian macro-region” – Russia is seeking to rebuild influence networks and obscure its strategic intentions. Isolated from mainstream Western political and cultural circles, it is also constructing parallel initiatives to soften its image abroad, ERR.ee said.

Russia’s war economy is under strain. While the defence sector is expanding rapidly, civilian sectors are contracting and economic pressures are mounting. The report notes that artillery ammunition production has increased more than seventeen-fold since 2021, signalling preparations for prolonged or future conflict. At the same time, Russia is expanding unmanned systems units across all branches of its armed forces.

The intelligence service highlights widespread abuses within the Russian military and warns of growing ideological control at home, including tighter restrictions on independent media and heightened pressure during the 2026 State Duma elections.

Beyond Russia, the report flags deepening cooperation between Moscow and Beijing, even amid mutual distrust. It also draws attention to China’s technological ambitions, North Korea’s overseas fundraising for weapons programmes and the strategic risks posed by artificial intelligence.

Estonia concludes that safeguarding classified information and managing emerging risks must remain a continuous, adaptive process in an increasingly volatile world, ERR.ee said.