Putin's "diplomacy": air in exchange for concessions

 

Putin continues to use tricks with America and Ukraine. The Trump administration has not yet managed to announce the first success of its mediation mission - an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to stop hostilities in the Black Sea - an explanation has come from Moscow in the best traditions of Joseph Stalin and Vyacheslav Molotov.

 

 

Putin agrees to a truce only on the condition that the West eases sanctions against Russian exports of agricultural products and fertilizers, plus removes restrictions and reconnects a number of banks, including the state-owned Rosselkhozbank, to the SWIFT international payment system. Nikolai Petrushev's son, Dmitry, works there as chairman of the board.

 

Volodymyr Zelensky has already accused Russia of distorting the terms of the Black Sea ceasefire, and he also called the Kremlin's statement that the Russian military had stopped striking Ukraine's energy infrastructure false.

 

But Ukrainians are used to Putin's lies. Americans are another matter. For them, this completely standard trick of the Kremlin has become an unpleasant surprise for some reason. Trump has found himself in a humiliating position. He understands this, but does not want to admit it. He is forced to justify himself in a simplified way: they say that Putin "maybe" is delaying the negotiations, although, in fact, he "wants peace".

 

In fact, everything was predictable and simply explainable. Putin considers the current US administration weak, and some of its employees incompetent. President Trump's endless assurances that he will definitely reconcile Russia and Ukraine are seen in Moscow as a sign of vanity, which Putin, a member of the KGB staff, knows how to play on. The demand to effectively lift some of the sanctions on Russia has a clear purpose - to test how far the current US administration is willing to go to achieve peace, and to try to sow discord between the United States and its European allies. Take financial sanctions as an example. They were imposed by both the Americans and the Europeans.

 

Moreover, SWIFT is an international joint-stock company based in Belgium, and its shareholders include both American and European banks. That is, to make the Patrushev family happy, you need to put pressure on the Europeans. If they "click" and comply - great, Moscow wins. If they do not comply (or the Americans do not put pressure on their partners) - that is also not bad. First, Washington's real position will become clear, and secondly, it will be possible to say: "We really wanted peace, but the West really does not want it." And then wait for the White House envoys to get in touch again with the question "Is there anything else we can do for you? Just tell us what."

 

 

And if they don't get in touch, then, they believe in the Kremlin, nothing terrible will happen. Russia can continue the war, Putin is convinced. He also seems confident that the US administration will not apply new sanctions against his regime. Or, at the very least, they won't impose really painful sanctions, even if the Kremlin doesn't "really" agree to peace in the end.

Another characteristic of the psychology of the collective Kremlin is revealed here. Moscow is convinced: the West is afraid to increase pressure on the Russian Federation because of the fear of "unforeseen consequences in case of instability in a nuclear state". And therefore, you can continue to fight, make more and more new demands and deceive.

President Trump and his administration will sooner or later (sooner, sooner) face a choice: either start putting pressure on Russia, or abandon mediation efforts and, in this case, either continue to support Ukraine (best option), or entrust it to the Europeans (worst option).

What will certainly not happen is a situation where only Ukraine will make concessions. There is no doubt that Volodymyr Zelensky has a reserve of goodwill. But he also has his own red lines that he will not cross.