EU urgency to dump Rosatom is growing but Russia will use every lever to prevent it

As we previously reported, the next five years will be a critical turning point for how much Western allies can decouple from Russian nuclear giant Rosatom. Energy and international relations analysts expect Moscow to use every soft power lever to keep that from happening.

Analysts believe demand will outstrip non-Russian supply over the next few years, forcing Western powers to tap into strategic reserves. This presents a window of opportunity for Russia to lock in dependencies.  

On the other hand, the US and Europe are more committed to rebuilding domestic fuel cycles as geopolitical security enters the nuclear energy sector for good, Al Habtoor Research Institute wrote. National security premiums on fuel are coming; the US bans Russian uranium starting in 2028, and Rosatom competitors Urenco and Orano are building more capacity. 

The REPower EU roadmap issued last month explicitly stated a goal to depart from Russian nuclear dependence. A source close to EU decisionmakers, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there are explicit growing calls to target “the untouchables” like Rosatom in closed-door meetings.

However, Moscow is not an actor that likes to play by the rules. Rosatom isn’t just the state nuclear company. It’s a major extension of Russia’s foreign influence, one of the country’s biggest exporters of technologically intensive goods, an importer of dual-use tech, and a big contributor to Moscow’s military-industrial complex. 

As such, it’s in Rosatom’s and Moscow's best interest to lobby, make deals, entrench dependencies, and disrupt unity at every turn to prevent the Europeans from rejecting it.

"Russia has been very successful at pulling these strings,” said Elina Ribakova, an economist with the Kyiv School of Economics. “Whenever the Rosatom conversation pops up in European sanctions, there is little appetite for that because certain countries are just very very resistant to it.” 

More to lose

While many Rosatom subsidiaries were sanctioned by the EU countries and others, Rosatom itself has escaped sanctions. Analysts said that around the start of the full-scale invasion enough people in power thought that the war would be relatively brief and not the harbinger that unmakes the post-Cold War order in Europe. 

However as time wore on, another reason began to be cited: the amount Russia makes on selling enriched uranium to European countries is a drop in the bucket compared to its oil and gas revenues. 

In 2024, European imports of enriched uranium were close to 700 million euros, Eurostat data shows. According to Russia Fossil Tracker, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, EU countries have bought more than 230 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels.

“From representatives of the European Commission we’ve heard the problem that if we sanction Rosatom, it will hurt the European energy sector more than it would actually hurt Rosatom,” said Truth Hounds investigator Denys Sultanhaliiev. “The funding which Rosatom receives from Europe is not that crucial for the Russian economy.”

He added that this is no reason not to sanction Moscow’s nuclear giant, which according to the NGO Truth Hounds’ investigation, was involved in war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine. 

More investigations by Ukrainian think tank DiXi Group and others found that Rosatom not only helps develop weapons and other war materiel, it also imports high technology assets that would otherwise be harder for Russia to get. 

When asked what EU governments are afraid of, Sultanhaliiev said “first of all, that they will lose access to enrichment capability, that’s the argument of the French government.” Secondly, there are technology services that Rosatom provides to the European nuclear energy sector, which are important for the operation of some of the plants.    

He added that these are used politically as a reason not to sanction Rosatom, even though these services could be diversified away from Russia.

Russian influence methods

Russian lobbying and influence on this issue exists but is difficult to prove, as much of it happens behind closed doors, multiple sources said. 

Ribakova said that Russia will often have experts in certain Western think tanks, who are paid to promote its worldview. Russia also has relationships with various politicians. These connections can be activated whenever a certain subject needs lobbying, whether it concerns Rosatom or fossil fuels, as state gas company Gazprom showed. 

“For example, Gazprom paid people permanently in some countries, even when they did nothing,” she said. “The person could be getting a full-time salary, doing nothing, until they’re necessary… And then the person will pop up, go around, and do some work.”