Why the war in Ukraine continues despite the forecasts of experts

There is great variety in this number: from "two or three weeks" to "several years" of war. Why does a large and well-documented armed conflict remain "terra incognita" for many military experts? And why does it destroy many stereotypes about the wars of the past?

 

Negative expectations in the West

 

It should be noted that the war in Ukraine has defied most of the forecasts of Western experts from the very beginning. On the eve of the invasion, forecasts were based on the huge disparity in armaments and numbers of the armed forces of the Russian Federation and Ukraine.

For example, according to the number of planes and tanks, the advantage of the Russians was approximately 10 times greater.

Also, the Russian Federation had a huge advantage in ships and long-range missiles.

Therefore, it is not surprising that in the first days of the invasion, many Western analysts were not optimistic about the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to repel an attack by the Russian army, especially from four directions at once.

"There are several main reasons that explain why so many analysts were convinced that the war would end in a few weeks or months," Natia Seskurija, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute in London (Royal United Services Institute-RUSI), explained to BBC News Ukraine .

"First, many underestimated the desire of the Ukrainian people to fight and defend their country, such a strong resilience of society and resistance was a surprise. There were also serious assumptions that Zelenski and his government would succumb to pressure."

Second, notes Seskuri, there were false expectations about the capabilities of the Russian army.

Due to the large number of reforms initiated by Moscow in the defense sector since 2008, there have been misconceptions about the "invincibility of the Russian army". This has led analysts to speculate that Russia will win the war, possibly by blitzkrieg and unmolested.

 

Third, there was no expectation that Ukraine would receive strong support from Western countries, especially countries like Germany.

"I think it was a surprise even for Putin," says the RUSI analyst.

 

Optimism in Ukraine

 

However, in the first weeks the "fog of war" changed to the idea that Ukraine was quite successfully holding back Russian troop attacks. The decisive factor was the fact that the aggressor failed to surround or capture the capital - Kiev.

Against the background of reports of numerous defeats of Russian columns in the north of Ukraine and heavy losses of the Russian army, analytical centers changed their opinion by 180 degrees and began to predict the victory of Kiev, not Moscow.

Ukrainian officials and military experts showed the greatest optimism here. In the spring of 2022, the famous expression of former adviser to the Office of the President Aleksi Arestović about "two or three weeks" appeared. That much time, he said, will be needed to end the conflict.

However, a few months later, Arestovich explained that he was referring to the end of the "Russian operation near Kiev" and not the war as a whole.

However, he was far from alone in the Ukrainian news space, which expressed similar thoughts about ending the war quickly.

For example, in early March 2022, in a BBC commentary, the former Deputy General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Igor Romanenko, said that the war could last "a few more months".

"I believe it could last from a few weeks to a few months. Depending on how the situation will develop."

Now - at the end of February 2023 - he explains that he meant the end of hostilities in the north of Ukraine. He explains to the BBC that even then he saw the futility of Russian attacks in this direction.

Now General Romanenko is talking about the readiness of the Russian Federation for a long war, the availability of a huge resource base, and intends to throw an additional 150-200 thousand military reserves into the battle.

"I have to admit, it was my, and not just my, misjudgment," admits Aleksij Melnik, former military pilot and current head of the Razumkov Center's foreign policy and international security programs, in an interview with the BBC.

 

In March 2022, he expected that the Russian leadership would begin negotiations on the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine after a short time due to heavy losses.

"I was wrong about how insensitive the Russian population was to losses. I admit that misjudgment."

According to estimates by the US authorities, Russia lost around 200,000 dead and wounded soldiers during the year of the war, and the Ukrainian General Staff states that around 150,000 Russians died.

Melnik calls such indifference of the Russian population to the huge number of dead "an absolute phenomenon".

 

Internal disagreements in Russia

 

It turns out that the bet on anti-war protests in the Russian Federation was wrong? Melnik warns that this factor is not completely dismissed.

Even such large one-time losses as the death of hundreds of mobilized Russians in one place in Makievka (Donetsk region) on January 1 did not lead to a rebellion of relatives, but there are certain preconditions for public actions in the future, he said he believes.

Center analyst Razumkov draws attention to local precedents in some regions of the Russian Federation, when disaffected mobilized individuals record videos and ensure that they are not sent to the front. Such cases are usually recorded in national republics, for example, in Tatarstan.

"These are not yet anti-war protests, but they are already a manifestation of dissatisfaction, a manifestation of internal friction," the expert believes.

Potentially, such manifestations of dissatisfaction can turn into larger-scale protests. However, these will not be anti-war, but anti-government actions, notes Melnik.

Another factor that can hasten the end of the war is material.

Reports of non-payment of financial support to mobilized military personnel have recently started to spread on Russian pro-war Telegram channels and social networks. This caused a wave of discontent among them.

The conflict between the private military company "Wagner" and the Russian Ministry of Defense is also intensifying. The head of "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin has already accused the military leadership of the Russian Federation of not wanting to provide ammunition to his fighters.

 

"I don't blame anyone and I don't want to show anything to anyone, I'm just saying: leave your whims, your principles and give me ammunition," asks a Russian businessman close to Putin.

These internal differences work to weaken Russia. But the direct military capabilities for a long war in this country are still sufficient, as well as the mobilization of human resources.

And the main danger is that this war remains an "existential issue" for Russian President Putin, all analysts note.

"Putin no longer makes rational decisions - believes Natia Seskurija. - He is increasingly desperate not to lose. Therefore, he is ready to throw everything at military efforts. That is why it is difficult to predict the future course of events from a rational point of view".

 

When will it even end?

 

Despite the unpredictable nature of the war, many are still trying to set a date for its end.

For example, back in September 2022, the former commander of the US Army in Europe, General Ben Godges, in an interview with the BBC, predicted the withdrawal of the Russian Federation from the occupied territories by the end of last year.

"This war will end when the last Russian soldier crosses that great bridge over the Kerch Strait. I believe that Ukrainian forces have the potential to push Russian forces to the line on February 23 - by the end of this year. I think it is really possible. It will be difficult, but I think it's quite possible."

His hopes were not fulfilled. But General Godges is already making a bold new prediction: the Ukrainian army can liberate occupied Crimea by the end of the summer and end the war this year.

Retired Ukrainian general Romanenko also points to 2023 as the possible last year of this conflict. But he notes that there are several conditions for this.

"It is possible if (Western) equipment is provided on time and in the right amount. But the West is always late. All the time during this war."

Melnik, an analyst at the Razumkov Center, says that the "decisive period" of the war is now beginning.

"Spring is coming, when both sides will try to make their offensive or counteroffensive. And it is already absolutely obvious that the scale of this escalation will be unprecedented."

How these offensives/counteroffensives will end will make the "path" of the further course of the war clear, says the analyst. According to him, the Russian president will do everything to "freeze the conflict". And that does not suit Ukraine.

 

This was recently stated by Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky. In an interview with the Italian publication Il Mondo, he said that Kiev is determined to end the war "quickly" and not prolong the conflict.

"We are preparing for a quick war that will end in victory. It is very important not to freeze this conflict, as was the case in 2014," Zelenski said.

According to him, the victory of Ukraine should happen already this year.