Why the invasion of Ukraine looks more and more like "Russian roulette"

 

The first 300 days of massive destruction and loss of human life in Ukraine have passed, and no side, including observers and helpers from almost the entire world, can say that they have achieved their goals. On the contrary. The results of the war are devastating. Russia has no power even in the areas it forcibly declared as its parts, although it has announced the rapid denazification and demilitarization of its first western neighbor, while Ukraine fails to return the occupied parts of its country. The invasion of Ukraine now looks more and more like "Russian Roulette", in which the capture of only a few villages or settlements is celebrated as a great advance by Russian, sometimes Ukrainian troops.

 

That one bullet in the barrel of a revolver can be fatal in the sense of denying Russia its right of veto in the United Nations Security Council, and even membership itself, while Ukraine enters the winter with an almost completely destroyed energy and utility infrastructure and a deficit of ten million inhabitants who are left the country fleeing Russian shells.

 

Is Belarus entering the Ukrainian war?

On the 300th day since the start of the Russian attack on Kyiv, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin visited Belarus, from where observers expect a new attack on Kyiv, perhaps as early as the first days after the New Year, this time together with the Belarusian army. Information about the rapid deployment of Belarusian troops on the Ukrainian border and the raising of combat readiness cannot be dismissed as propaganda, especially after the Ministry of Defense of Russia announced tactical military exercises of about 9,000 soldiers in Belarus.

 

But we still have to wait and see what Putin has agreed on with his probably only "real ally" Alexander Lukashenko. According to the Russian president, who ordered a "special military operation" ten months ago, even though he claimed days before that there would be no war, the war will last at least another year. His latest screaming command to the FBS, or KGB in old fashioned terms, is: "Find traitors, spies and saboteurs!"

 

His Ukrainian colleague Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who previously announced that the war will not end for at least another six months, went to the front line of the war in the Kherson region, handing out medals to the bravest in the battles for the strategically very important city of Bakhmut in the Donbass. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is also not optimistic, specifying that the war in Ukraine will last at least another year.

Even though the risks of war are still huge and unfathomable - true, with the possible nuclear attacks being mentioned less and less - the war in Ukraine is no longer necessarily on the front pages, not even in the first news of news shows. Not because there is less blood and casualties on the fronts or because the frantic information propaganda of both sides has weakened, but because the audience all over the world is a bit tired of listening to strictly controlled reports served by propaganda and military headquarters 24 hours a day. Circulation media, portals and televisions care about greater readership and viewership, because only that brings advertising ads and profits. The sale of advertising space was mostly influenced by the just concluded World Football Championship in Qatar, which is not a surprise.

 

In contrast to the audience, Putin and Zelenskiy haven't gotten tired yet, nor have they used up all their stocks of ammunition and weapons, and no one is asking the military or civilians anything. Simple logic, but also theorists of war, say that wars end the moment they run out of ammunition and food, and fatigue reaches its peak. Putin and Zelensky agree on only one thing: that the situation on all fronts is difficult. Although offensives and counter-offensives alternate almost on a daily basis, sometimes in favor of one side, sometimes in favor of the other, depending on who is reporting, the fighting is currently mostly fought in the air, with unmanned aerial vehicles or drones, in contrast to the beginning of the invasion, when the main ones were tanks and planes.

 

What could the Russian Federation lose apart from what the sanctions and (self)isolation brought to it due to the attack on Ukraine? The largest country in the world by area, the winner of two world wars, the owner of the largest reserves of fossil fuels and one of the founders of the United Nations, could be left without the right of veto in the UN Security Council, which until now allowed it the illusion of its political and economic greatness as a world superpower. Russia does not want that at all, on the contrary, it will do everything to stand by the United States of America and China, which, with more or less success, especially the former, currently rule the world. And this is the "roulette" with which Moscow plays, trying to restore the old Cold War balance of fear. Which can hit her head no matter how the war in Ukraine ends.

 

 

Ever since Russia vetoed the UN Security Council resolution condemning its alleged right to four Ukrainian regions, intense lobbying has begun in the UN General Assembly. The European Union invited almost all UN members, except Belarus, Syria, North Korea and Eritrea, for siding with Russia. Kyiv, Washington and Brussels were quite direct: Russia should be denied not only the right of veto, but also membership in the UN Security Council, which, realistically speaking, could be the end of such United Nations, which, however, have not been more divided for a long time. .

 

Although voices can be heard that the collapse of the European Union is more certain than the collapse of the United Nations, pressure is growing from Europe to suspend the right of veto to countries like Russia, "which started an unjust war". This is exactly what Putin fears the most, because it would mean the return of Russia to the level of a regional power, which would definitely distance it from its sweet dreams of imperial power and the restoration of the Russian Empire at the expense of Europe. As things stand now, these are more rhetorical games than realistic sketches of the future world once the war ends.

 

On the other hand, Ukraine, following an accelerated procedure, became a candidate for membership in the European Union, which will not help it if its capital, Kyiv, is bombarded with rockets from Belarus after the New Year, which Putin just presented to Lukashenka on the 300th day of the war. Despite that, Zelenski, at least for now, does not think of sitting down at the negotiating table under any conditions, although he regularly monitors the messages that come to him, first of all, from America, but also from Europe. Especially those who claim that the military's weapons arsenals are running out and that American HIMARS and drones are not worth much without ammunition.

 

The Ukrainian president, who was declared the person of the year by the American Time, is more concerned that he is getting more and more messages that it is time to start the negotiation process to end the war, even though Kyiv is not even close to the ultimate goal, i.e. the establishment of international borders before the start of the war. And that is his bullet from the Russian revolver for "roulette". If that were to happen, then all the sacrifices and destruction of villages and cities would be in vain.

 

 

There is something else unfavorable for Zelenskiy - there is more and more evidence that, in addition to many Russian ones, there are also war crimes committed by members of the Ukrainian army, which cannot be erased even by the cry "Glory to Ukraine!" There is a lot about it in the latest report of Amnesty International, about the shooting of Russian prisoners, for example, which are not foreseen by the rules of war and the Geneva Conventions. Based on this, it is increasingly difficult to view events as black and white, or, as Zelensky himself often emphasizes, about the conflict between good and evil, in which the bad gays are exclusively Russians.

 

Amnesty International, of course, has an influence on public opinion in Western countries, and Western leaders usually listen to public opinion and create their decisions based on it. Without the support of the West, Zelensky could quickly and easily become Russian prey. Although he currently has the undivided support of Western countries, it is difficult for him to accept as truth the possibility that at some point the world, for its own interests, could reward Russian aggression by dismembering his country.

 

Serbia, as a candidate country for joining the European Union, has not imposed sanctions on Russia even to this day, although it condemned the aggression against Ukraine, so the Belgrade media listened with special attention to what was happening at the last session of the UN General Assembly. From there, information was also leaked that the possibility of challenging Moscow and the very way in which it became the direct heir to the chair of the Soviet Union in the UN was allegedly considered. The former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Vladislav Jovanović, believes that the veto right is a "victor's right" and that the winners created this right for themselves in order to secure their interests and international peace "as it suits them". "If that was taken away from one member, then the entire architecture of preserving peace and security in the world would suddenly be damaged, if not completely collapsed. That doesn't suit anyone," said Jovanović.

 

Serbia also fears a "roulette ending"

 

Of the 193 countries, none has ever been excluded from membership, even though the UN Charter provides for this possibility. Russia could experience this, only if it did not veto its own exclusion. This could eventually be replaced by a two-thirds majority, and such an example was recorded at the beginning of the Korean War in 1951. If it really happens that a two-thirds majority votes to deny the veto to Russia, that would open the door for the UN Security Council Resolution 1244 on Kosovo to be amended and a new one passed, which would certainly not suit either Russia or Serbia.

 

While these considerations fall under the worst possible "what if" scenarios, most Ukrainians, those who are not in the trenches, are burning furniture to keep warm, not expecting anything to change for the better soon despite the arrival of the New Year holidays. . Most are sick of waiting for a revolver with one bullet in the drum to finally fire.