What will the "war of cities and tankers" between Moscow and Kiev turn into?

The Ukrainian army has launched a hunt for Russian tankers and dry cargo vehicles in the waters of the Azov and Black Seas and is intensifying strikes on land targets deep inside Russian territory. After attacks on oil refineries and storage facilities, massive attacks on logistics centers have begun. 

The Russian army is also intensifying strikes on the rear areas of Ukraine, which has been in the war for five years - attacking civilian ships in the Odessa area, hitting major cities with missiles and drones, bombing and shelling settlements on the front line. 

As a result of mutual shelling, more and more civilians are dying, and the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is increasingly reminiscent of the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988, or rather, its phase called the "war of cities and tankers". 

Four years after Saddam Hussein's army invaded Iran, a positional stalemate developed on the front, and the warring parties switched to massive missile strikes and bombing of the enemy's rear infrastructure, hoping to exhaust its forces and force it to surrender. 

During the war, at least 20,000 civilians became victims of attacks on capitals, large and port cities, civilian ships, including foreign ones, oil terminals and other industrial facilities. Material losses on both sides were enormous, but neither Iraq nor Iran managed to crush the enemy. 

How relevant is the parallel between the current stage of Russia's military confrontation with Ukraine and the events of 40 years ago? What could the so-called war of cities and the war of tankers turn into in modern conditions? Is it possible to emerge victorious from it? 

What is known about the casualties 

According to the UN observer mission, in June of this year alone, at least 293 civilians were killed and 1,990 were wounded in Russian strikes on Ukraine. Most of the civilian casualties occurred in territories controlled by Kiev, with the highest number in Dnipro, Zaporizhia, Kherson and the capital itself. 

According to the same estimates, in the first six months of 2026 alone, the number of deaths and injuries among the Ukrainian civilian population (1,396 and 7,978, respectively) was 37 percent higher than in the same period in 2025 (1,122 killed, 5,734 wounded) and 114 percent higher than in the same period in 2024 (940 killed, 3,442 wounded). 

The UN says the main reason for the increase in casualties is the expansion of Russian long-range missile and drone strikes on cities, as well as the increasingly active use of small drones in front-line areas. 

There are no exact figures on the number of Russian civilians killed in Ukrainian strikes over the same period, as Russia does not publish general statistics on casualties. 

Rosemary DiCarlo, head of the UN’s political affairs department, gave approximate figures at a meeting of the UN Security Council on July 9: she reported, citing Russian authorities, that 250 civilians were killed and 1,596 wounded on Russian territory in the first half of the year, but noted that the UN could not yet verify these figures. 

It is even more difficult to estimate the material losses of the parties - officially and with rare exceptions, both Russia and Ukraine either do not report on military-industrial and other strategic facilities that have been attacked, or provide limited information that does not allow us to assess the extent of the damage. 

But it is impossible to hide the facts about explosions and fires, most of which occur in or near large settlements. 

Attacks on cities 

According to open sources, from January to July, the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked all 11 of the largest oil refineries in the European part of Russia, as well as two refineries in Tyumen and Omsk. The Ukrainian army also attacked several dozen fuel depots, factories, seaports, oil terminals and other important facilities. 

Due to damage to primary oil refining facilities, Russian refineries have completely or partially stopped working. Russia is experiencing a decrease in the production and export of oil products, a load on individual refineries and fuel shortages. 

Despite serious disruptions, oil refining in Russia is not completely paralyzed, oil exports continue, some of the damaged facilities are later restored to operation, and the authorities are still managing to redistribute the flows of raw materials and fuel between regions. But it is difficult to assess the prospects for the Russian oil industry now, since the attacks continue. 

In July, new targets appeared in the sights of Ukrainian drones - warehouse complexes of large logistics centers. On the night of July 18, the Wildberries market in Elektrostal near Moscow and Kotovsk in the Tambov region was attacked, as a result of which the warehouse in the Moscow region was almost completely burned down. 

The next day, a list of the 25 largest hubs in the European part of Russia appeared on one of the websites of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a warning of future strikes. And the strikes did indeed continue. 

On July 20, after the drone attack, a fire broke out in the Yuzhnaya Brama industrial park in Domodedovo, and there were also reports of an attempted attack on the Wildberries sorting warehouse in the Podilsky region near Moscow. 

And on the night of July 22, Ukrainian drones attacked the Wildberries logistics centers in Krasnodar and Nevinnomyssk in the Stavropol Territory. Both centers have been shut down, the company reported. 

Russia is also intensifying attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. First of all, settlements on the front line and in the near-rear areas are suffering from the strikes of Russian drones and guided bombs, but cities in the deep rear are also suffering. 

Gas stations, train stations and locomotives, vehicles, farms, shopping malls and administrative buildings are burning, and medical facilities and residential buildings are often hit. 

Russia has been destroying terminals of the Ukrainian logistics operator Nova Poshta for several years. And on the night of July 19, a Russian ballistic missile almost completely destroyed the main distribution center of Amtel, covering an area of ​​​​100 thousand square meters near Kiev, which provided cargo delivery throughout the country. 

Russian authorities and state media usually explain attacks on terminals and logistics centers by saying that these facilities are allegedly used not only for civilian transport, but also for military purposes. 

So, in June 2026, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that weapons, including drones and their components, were stored in the attacked logistics centers of Novaya Poshta in the Novy Korotich area near Kharkiv and in the Sumy region. 

Russian z-blogger Fighterbomber criticizes such explanations, in his opinion, in such cases one should "******** [beat] quietly". 

"We are digging a hole for ourselves and jumping into it with both feet. Because the same Wildberries is engaged in the reception, storage and distribution of dual-use goods, for example, an attack on which we officially call a targeted terrorist attack," writes Fighterbomber. 

"Tanker War" 

A few days before the attacks on Russian logistics centers began, the warring parties launched a major campaign against shipping in the Black and Azov Seas. 

According to the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces, from July 6 to 17 alone, drones hit at least 159 vessels associated with Russian logistics, including 117 in the Sea of ​​Azov and 42 in the Black Sea. 

Most of the reported targets were oil tankers, as well as gas carriers, bulk carriers, tugboats and ferries. There is no independent confirmation that all of them were permanently disabled, but at least several were badly burned or had serious visible damage. 

Last Friday, Russian authorities restricted shipping in the Sea of ​​Azov, through which a quarter of Russia's grain exports pass, and this week they banned ships from entering the port of Azov in the Gulf of Taganrog and the port of Kavkaz in the Kerch Strait. 

“Now the enemy has redirected its attacks to the Black Sea due to a significant reduction in traffic in the Sea of ​​Azov,” wrote the Russian Telegram channel “Military Informer.” “According to SAR images, the number of ships there has decreased by 78 percent, and the largest concentrations near the ports and the Kerch Strait have practically disappeared.” 

On the other hand, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on July 16 that Russian forces had hit a warship and a speedboat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which were heading towards ports in the Odessa region. Ukraine has not confirmed this. 

On July 19, Ukrainian authorities reported an attack on Odessa’s port infrastructure, damaging a civilian ship flying the flag of Antigua and Barbuda. 

The following day, the Ukrainian side reported that Russian forces had fired three cruise missiles at the bulk carrier Golden Leo, flying the flag of Guinea-Bissau and transporting grain off the coast of Odessa. At least 10 crew members were reported killed. The incident was confirmed by Reuters, DW and a number of other international media outlets. 

Historical parallels 

The current situation has similarities with the Iran-Iraq war in terms of the timing of the transition to this phase of hostilities, the intensity of the strikes and the choice of targets. However, there are also important differences. 

The war of cities and tankers between Iran and Iraq began almost simultaneously - formally, Hussein was the first to start it, when it became clear that the situation on the front was not in his favor, but the Iranian side did not hesitate to respond. 

In the case of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, the transition to the phase of the "war of cities" began to be discussed only when the retaliatory strikes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine became particularly noticeable, although Russia has actually been waging it for five years. 

“Back in 2022, Russia took over all of Ukraine’s oil refineries and major oil storage facilities. Then it took over the gas refinery. It started attacking production,” recalls Ukrainian military observer Oleksiy Kopytko, noting that at the time Ukraine lacked adequate defense assets and long-range attack weapons.  

“Russia completely attacked the defense industry. Chemical plants. Only machine-building plants. Only metallurgical enterprises, etc. Having carried out priority deindustrialization wherever they could reach, the Russians shifted their focus to ports, grain silos. Then came attacks on logistics centers, warehouses,” the Ukrainian expert writes. 

There is another difference. The weapons used by Iran and Iraq 40 years ago were not highly accurate, many people died from indiscriminate strikes and missile deviations from the target. 

Modern missiles and drones used by Russia and Ukraine are much more accurate, and although they can miss or crash into a residential high-rise building that was not taken into account in the flight program, most often end up exactly where they were programmed. 

This means that, on the one hand, it is possible to minimize casualties among the civilian population if civil protection is established, primarily warning systems and evacuation mechanisms. 

But, on the other hand, it will be very difficult to protect large bases and production sites from targeted attacks. Especially in Russia, with its centralization of production and concentration of storage. 

In the conditions of a protracted war, the means of attack begin to noticeably outweigh the means of defense - shock weapons are, as a rule, simpler and cheaper to produce. 

According to Ukrainian military sources, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian military-industrial complex has tripled the production of Iskander ballistic missiles, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine simply do not have such a number of expensive anti-missile systems capable of shooting them down. 

On the other hand, Russia faces similar problems - its air defense is not guaranteed to destroy hundreds of cheap Ukrainian drones that daily attack objects on the vast Russian territory. 

At the same time, the Russian military is also massively launching drones over Ukraine, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine have increasingly begun to use cruise missiles and may soon use their own ballistics. 

Given this trend, the prospects for the continuation of the "urban war" look bleak for both sides. But if the Ukrainians have been living in such conditions for five years, the Russians are just beginning to get used to them.