What to expect after Russia’s new mobilization

The Ukrainian General Staff has officially confirmed that the defense forces have liberated part of the village of Opytne, near Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. The head of the Avdiivka city military administration, Vitaliy Barabash, asked me to comment on the situation in Opytne carefully. Because not only do we understand the significance of Opytne, but the enemy does as well. As Vitaliy explained, we don't control the entire village. We have reached the center, but it is almost three and a half kilometers from the center to the edge. Every meter there is a challenge. Our military now needs to assess how tactically we need to move forward. However, we also need to weigh our forces, to what extent the Russians can use their reserves there, and to what extent they can try to retake the village. In any case, even partially, the liberation of Opytne will make the situation in Avdiivka safer. It will move the front line away from the south of Avdiivka and put an end to Russia's attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Therefore, it is crucial.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine says that Russia will conduct a massive forced mobilization in the near future. According to various estimates, the plan is to mobilize from 400 to 700 thousand people, including in the occupied territories. You and I understood that this mobilization would happen. First, they held these fake elections to conduct this mobilization and use human resources in the occupied territories, particularly in the newly occupied territories of Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Mobilization is the next obvious step because their only resource now is human power. Our enemy understands that Ukrainians from the newly occupied territories do not want to shoot their fellow citizens, to put it mildly, and would instead turn their weapons against the occupiers. So, they will not recruit those people who can turn their weapons against them. They will recruit submissive people who are ready to cooperate with any government and cannot resist.

The word "negotiations" came from Blinken's mouth, and it seems this is the danger

For them, the only thing they need to do now is to hold the front line at any cost. They will now recruit this low-quality resource, which will never become a professional army. Still, there are many of them, which Putin and his general staff expect to be able to keep the Ukrainian army within its current limits. After forcing a battlefield stalemate, Russia hopes the Western world will then demand a peace settlement. This is their plan, and it is undeniable. That's why this ugly Putin went to Vladivostok to talk to Kim Jong-un and ask him for artillery ammunition from their warehouses, some artillery systems that could help them overcome how Ukraine has gradually closed the artillery gap. The only remaining goal is to keep the occupied territories they currently control simply. This is their strategy; it is obvious. What should we do?

I read the transcript of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's interview with The Economist, where he hints quite transparently that the war is becoming protracted and that we will need to mobilize the entire society to put our economy on a war footing. I think this is already a situation that is obvious to many. That is, if the Russians engage in this human resource, even if it is of poor quality, and if they reach an agreement with Kim Jong-un, we will have to prepare for the fact that our economy (which is sometimes peaceful, judging by the way people feel in Kyiv) will be put on a war footing. I'm not saying everyone will mobilize, but the economy in this situation should work for war and victory.

What is wrong with our communication that the US has yet to decide to give us long-range ATACMS missiles? It's hard to say; unlike American journalists, I just don't have any insights from the US government or the White House. It's worth pointing out Anthony Blinken's statement to journalists the day after the meeting in Kyiv. I'm not going to quote him verbatim, but the point is that any war ends at the negotiating table, but Putin is not interested in negotiations, so there will be no negotiations. Maybe Kyiv should first ask whether Kyiv wants to negotiate with Putin. Zelenskyy and other politicians openly state that we will not negotiate with this man. You can't negotiate with a person who is a pathological liar, a murderer, a war criminal, and a sick person. How can we talk, and what can we negotiate about? But here's the point: the word "negotiations" came from Blinken's mouth, and it seems this is the danger. This is becoming a trend, meaning that the option of negotiations is probably being discussed at some level. If not at the official level, then other points may be raised behind the curtain in some conversations of people on whom the fate of war and peace depends. This is a dangerous trend.

So, it's hard for me to understand why we don't get weapons that will help us win this war quickly. We will win this war, but the longer it lasts, the more Ukrainians will die, and the more Russians sent to this war because of such shameful mobilization measures will die (and there are many more of them). Why not save people's lives? Why not help Ukraine win quickly? I have no answer.