24.06.2023.

What does close military cooperation between China and Russia look like?

CHINESE state-owned defense companies have maintained trade relations with sanctioned Russian defense companies over the past year, while many of the world's leading economies cut ties with Moscow and companies supporting Russia's attack on Ukraine.
Customs records reviewed by CNN show that key companies within both countries' vast military-industrial complexes have continued long-standing cooperation despite the terror Moscow has unleashed on Europe.
The documents show that during 2022, at least through mid-November, Beijing-based military supplier Poly Technologies made at least ten shipments - including helicopter parts and radio equipment - to a state-backed Russian company sanctioned by the US for its links to the war in Ukraine.
Poly Technologies' long-term trading partner - Ulan Ude Aviation Plant, a supplier of military helicopters - also continued to send parts and several helicopters to the Beijing-based company last year, trade data show.

There is no evidence that the goods ended up in the war
Most of the helicopter parts that were delivered to Russia were designated for use in the Mi-171E multipurpose helicopter, designed for transport, search and rescue. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China started importing this model of helicopter from Russia more than 10 years ago.
The three Poly Technologies shipments were identified as including products for the operation or maintenance of the Russian-made Mi-171SH, a weapons-capable military transport helicopter used in operations in Ukraine. There is no evidence that any of the goods exchanged were directly used in the Russian war.
Customs records were derived from two sets of data. The first was provided by trade data company Import Genius, whose information was gathered through secondary sources from official Russian customs and shipment records. Washington-based think tank C4ADS, which compares official customs records collected from multiple suppliers, provided the second set of data.
Close relations between China and Russia in recent years
CNN has not independently verified the data, which may provide a partial but not complete picture of trade exchanges. Military and security experts say the parts sent from the Chinese company to Russia are fairly basic equipment for Russian-designed aircraft that could be part of existing contracts and standard business relationships between the companies.

But last year's trade points to enduring ties between key players in the defense sectors on both sides — ties that have strengthened over the past decade as Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have developed their strategic alliance.
Experts say such well-established networks could be used for Beijing's eventual active and direct armed assistance to the Kremlin's war effort.
Western leaders have warned in recent weeks that China is considering such a move. Beijing has denied it, derided the warning as slander, repeatedly defended its "normal" trade with Russia and rejected what it calls "unilateral" sanctions against Moscow.
Military ties between Beijing and Moscow have developed dramatically since the height of the Cold War - a period marked by mutual hostility and ideological differences.
Although there is some friction, the two authoritarian neighbors have grown closer, especially under Putin and Xi, who declared a "no-holds-barred" partnership just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, a robust but highly one-way arms trade flourished in which Russia sold its superior weapons to China. Recently, the rapid modernization of China's military has begun to change that dynamic.

Putin boasted that China and Russia were jointly developing high-tech weapons
In 2021, Putin boasted that the two countries were "jointly developing certain high-tech types of weapons" and praised their joint military exercises, which were increasingly extensive and geographically widespread.

Military suppliers connected to the state are at the forefront of this relationship. They are being integrated into an increasingly sophisticated supply chain, according to Alex Gabuev, associate of the international think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Then came the war in Ukraine. So far, China has carefully sidestepped harsh Western sanctions aimed at those who support Russia - although 10 Chinese companies have been hit by US war-related restrictions.

But the main question for Western officials is whether China can use existing defense cooperation to provide concrete military aid to the Kremlin's war effort, which is believed to be running out of ammunition and weapons.

In February, CNN reported that US intelligence officials believed the Chinese government was considering sending drones and ammunition to Russia.
China's new foreign minister, Qin Gang, said on March 7 that China "has not sent weapons to any side" in Russia's war and denounced US concerns over the issue as hypocritical.
Chinese foreign affairs analysts say Chinese leaders are well aware of the reputational and economic damage if they are seen to be supporting Moscow militarily, and many are skeptical of the idea that Beijing would help nuclear power Russia at this point.
"Russia is losing this war, but it is not a loss that would lead to the death of Putin and the democratization of Russia, so I see no reason for China to do more than it is doing now," Gabuev said.

The Kremlin made a brief announcement
The goods traded between Chinese and Russian defense companies, according to data analyzed by CNN, are not the ammunition that the Russian army needs most after a year of war. China is also not the only one trading with Russia in the war.
Asked by CNN about shipments from China to sanctioned Russian companies, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said it was "not aware of the situation" and that China "stands firmly on the side of dialogue and peace."
The Kremlin did not respond to CNN's inquiry. However, on February 27, a Kremlin spokesman said that Russia saw no need to comment on claims that it had asked China for military equipment because Beijing had already denied it.
Poly Technologies describes itself on its website as the main subsidiary of China Poly Group, a leading state-owned enterprise "exclusively authorized by the Chinese central government to import/export defense systems".
Poly Technologies was sanctioned by the US in 2013, under rules for companies that supply Iran, North Korea and Syria, and again in January last year for alleged missile deliveries.
The Ulan Ude Aviation Plant, a subsidiary of the largest state-owned manufacturer Russian Helicopters, which makes Mi-8/17 series military transport helicopters, did not respond to a request for comment, nor did Poly Technologies.
Two other key companies also appear in the customs data - China's AVIC International Holding, controlled by the state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China, and Russia's United Engine Corporation (UEC), which is part of the state-owned defense giant Rostec.
Their trade included Russian jet engine parts, many of which were destined for the engine used in Chinese fighter jets.
Deliveries from AVIC International to UEC made up to July last year are listed as contractual obligations under the warranty, and export records show that UEC shipped parts for the same engine model to China until December last year.

AVIC International and UEC did not respond to requests for comment. The Wall Street Journal previously mentioned the deliveries of Poly Technologies and AVIC International Holding to Russian partners.

Washington's position
Washington's position is that any company that supplies or operates within the Russian defense sector risks being sanctioned. But China may not be too worried about the transactions shown in the aforementioned trade data, according to Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington.
"This type of export has to be approved by the government. But given the nature of these parts and the fact that Poly Technologies has been under US sanctions since 2013, the government may not see the need to disapprove," Sun said.
Some experts have raised questions about whether the aircraft parts coming from China to Russia - many of which are labeled as "used" or of Russian origin - could still be the spare parts Russia needs in the war.
Sun said it was no surprise that Russia would continue to honor contracts for equipment bought by China, but warned that goods going in the opposite direction could be "re-imported by Russia to make up for the war." It is also unlikely that the full picture will ever be revealed.
"Neither China nor Russia want Western intelligence to be aware of the depth and breadth of their strategic cooperation," said Alexander Korolev, a lecturer in international relations at the University of New South Wales in Australia.
If China were to deliver weapons to destroy the enemy's manpower, Korolyov added, everything would be done to cover it up: "And one way to cover it up is to present it as if it were just part of regular, long-term military-technical cooperation, and not an answer to war."