What could peace talks between Ukraine and Russia look like? The main scenarios of Kiev, Moscow and the USA

In this context, talks about peace negotiations between Moscow and Kiev are heard more and more often.

The BBC reports how the participants in the war and their main allies see the scenarios for ending the conflict and how their positions have changed recently.

Russia: Putin demands that the annexation of territories be recognized and that Kyiv not join NATO

Russian President Vladimir Putin has outlined his demands for the start of peace talks this summer. The conditions are as follows:

- Ukraine must completely withdraw troops from the occupied regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson within its administrative borders. That is, it is not only about the territories occupied by Russia, but also about the territories controlled by Kiev - they include, for example, the regional centers - Kherson and Zaporozhye.

- Kyiv must officially give up its plans to join NATO - that is, agree to a neutral status.

- The status of Crimea, Sevastopol and the annexed territories in the east of Ukraine as Russian territories should be recorded in international treaties.

- Sanctions against Russia should be lifted.

 

Putin said that Moscow is ready to sit down at the negotiating table "as early as tomorrow" if these conditions are met. He promised to issue an order to "cease fire" the moment Kiev begins to withdraw its troops. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called Putin's proposal an ultimatum.

 

In some issues, this position differs from the first demands of the Kremlin. From the beginning of the war, the Russian authorities spoke very vaguely about the goals of the "military operation": among them, the most common were "denazification", "demilitarization" and the protection of the people of Donbass.

However, recently investigative media journalists found and published Russia's first proposals for a peace agreement with Ukraine: they were sent by Moscow to Kiev shortly after the invasion began.

Among them are the following conditions - reducing the army to 50,000 people (which is five times less than it was in Ukraine by 2022), reducing the number of weapons to a level lower than in neighboring Belarus, abolishing all laws on decommunization, recognizing the Russian language as official language. At that time, Russia counted on the complete capitulation of Ukraine and, probably, on the change of government in this country.

Now there is no mention of this in the demands (although it cannot be ruled out that Russia will ask for a reduction of the Ukrainian army if negotiations begin). In addition, Russia now insists on recognizing the occupied territories as Russian. At the beginning of the war and during the negotiations in Istanbul, Russia did not yet have time to formally annex the Ukrainian regions and agreed to postpone the discussion on their status.

Despite the fact that Putin keeps saying that he is ready to start negotiations, in reality the picture looks somewhat different. Russian troops are advancing in Donbass and the Kursk region (The Telegraph wrote that Putin wants to regain territories in this region before the inauguration of Donald Trump).

And on November 21, Russia used a new medium-range ballistic missile "Oreshnik" in Ukraine - Putin at the same time threatened that in the future strikes with such weapons could occur on NATO countries. All this rather indicates that Russia is ready to fight and does not seek negotiations at any price.

Ukraine: Zelensky seeks support for "victory plan" to improve Kiev's position

Ukraine's position regarding negotiations with Russia has changed several times.

At the beginning of the war, Kiev agreed to dialogue with the Russian delegation. But already in the middle of 2022, this contact was terminated, and soon Zelensky signed a decision on the impossibility of negotiations with Vladimir Putin. But, in recent months, the president of Ukraine has been saying more and more often that the war can be ended with a diplomatic solution, but on the condition that the allies put Ukraine in a favorable negotiating position.

 

These proposals of Kiev are called "Vladimir Zelensky's victory plan". He secured them in the fall of this year. It has five main provisions:

- Ukraine should receive an official invitation to NATO.

- Strengthening of Ukrainian defense. Western allies should lift restrictions on strikes on Russian territory with long-range weapons, provide Ukraine with real-time intelligence and strengthen Ukraine's air defense system.

- Ukraine should deploy the "comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package" necessary to contain the Russian threat.

- Joint use of Ukrainian economic resources (for example, minerals) with Western countries and strengthening of sanctions against Russia.

- The use of the Ukrainian military to replace certain parts of the American contingent in Europe after the end of the war.

According to Kiev's plan, the fulfillment of all these conditions will force Russia to sit down at the negotiating table. One of them has actually already been fulfilled - the US allowed the Ukrainian army to strike with long-range weapons on the territory of Russia. These strikes have already begun - Russia took it as an escalation of the conflict and changed its nuclear doctrine. The Allies disagree on other matters.

The Financial Times claims that the last two points were written by the Zelenskyi administration in cooperation with the Republicans with reference to the victory of Donald Trump, who is close to the topic of reducing military support to Europe from the US.

 

Zelensky and Trump

As it follows from the "victory plan", Kiev does not agree either to the refusal to join NATO or to the ceding of Ukrainian territories. At the same time, the FT wrote that Ukrainian authorities are actually discussing a formal (but not legal) refusal to return territories by military means in exchange for NATO entry and guarantees.

The rhetoric of Kiev in recent weeks indeed suggests that the Ukrainian authorities no longer consider it possible to return all the territories from 1991 by military means.

"Legally, we don't recognize it. We don't accept it. On the other hand, we understand that so far we don't have the strength to push Putin back to the line from 1991 with weapons in our hands," Zelenski said in an interview with Fox News.

 

"We cannot waste tens of thousands of our people dying for the return of Crimea... We understand that Crimea can be returned diplomatically."

 

This is a significant change in Zelensky's rhetoric: he even recently said that no negotiations on ending the war are possible until the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders.

How does Kiev see a diplomatic path that would help bring Russia to the negotiating table? At least earlier, Ukraine had planned to invite Moscow to the so-called peace summit. The first was held in Switzerland this summer, and the second was supposed to be held in November.

"Representatives of Russia must be present there. We understand that it is very difficult to end this war diplomatically without the Russian side," Zelensky said in September.

The agenda of the peace summit, according to Zelensky's plan, should be a 10-point "peace formula", which he presented to the world in 2022. Among them are ensuring nuclear, food and energy security, the release of prisoners (including deported children), as well as the withdrawal of Russian troops and the payment of reparations for the damage caused.

The Russian side showed no interest in participating in the summit. He is being talked about less and less in Ukraine: the second peace summit has been postponed indefinitely.

But negotiations on certain points of the plan may already be underway. In October, the Financial Times wrote that Ukraine and Russia are discussing the continuation of negotiations on mutual renunciation of strikes on energy facilities. The mediator is Qatar, which started preparations immediately after the first peace summit. The negotiations got stuck in the background of the invasion of the Kursk region by the Ukrainian army.

Officially, the parties do not comment on the facts surrounding the negotiations. But Volodymyr Zelensky said that stopping the attacks on energy facilities could be the first step towards ending the war. As winter approaches, this is a very sore topic for Kyiv.

But it is not clear at what stage these negotiations are. However, it is obvious that they have not brought great results so far. In mid-November, Russia carried out one of the biggest attacks on energy facilities since the beginning of the war. This led to many hours without electricity across Ukraine.

USA: Everyone is waiting for Donald Trump's plan

The position of the USA will be crucial in any scenario of the end of the war - that is why the results of the presidential elections were so closely watched in both Kiev and Moscow.

In January, Donald Trump will become the president of the United States of America. During his campaign, he repeatedly said that he was capable of ending the conflict before the inauguration and that he would even stop the war within a day. Since his election victory, neither he nor his associates have yet presented a concrete plan to end the conflict.

But its contours can be understood thanks to statements in the media and candidates for the Trump team who are running for jobs in the White House and other departments.

Back this summer, Reuters wrote about the plan developed by retired general Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz - Trump's advisers and members of the Security Council, during his presidency. Among other things, they suggested withdrawing support from Ukraine until it agrees to negotiations with Russia. In case of Russia's refusal to start negotiations, they offered to threaten Moscow with increased support for Kiev.

The plan included freezing the conflict at the line of contact. Fleitz said at the time that Trump liked the plan, even though he didn't agree with "every word of it." Republican officials distanced themselves from the plan.

Already after Trump's election victory, The Wall Street Journal published material on more detailed discussions in Trump's team. The newspaper emphasizes that several scenarios are being discussed among the associates of the future president. But they are trying to abandon the principle of the current administration - to support Ukraine "as long as necessary". After the election, Trump's son joked on social media that Zelensky would soon "lose his subsidies."

The proposals have another common feature, the WSJ claims: they all propose freezing the conflict on current frontline positions and at least temporarily rejecting Ukraine's admission to NATO.

From a formal point of view, the administration of Joe Biden also did not agree to approve Ukraine's application to join the alliance. After his visit to Washington, American media reported that the White House was skeptical of Zelensky's "victory plan" and that Washington no longer had fundamental objections to this issue.

The election of Trump makes the admission of Ukraine to the Alliance less likely, writes Reuters citing an unnamed Ukrainian official. The WSJ claims that one of the plans currently being discussed by Trump's team assumes that Kiev will withdraw from the

Alliance within the next 20 years. In return, the US will continue to provide Ukraine with weapons to deter Russia.

The same plan assumes that the parties will agree to the creation of a demilitarized zone where European peacekeeping forces will be stationed.

The White House will try to end the war as soon as possible, according to the candidates it has chosen for positions in foreign policy. Trump offered Senator Marco Rubio the position of head of the State Department. Although Rubio has called Putin a "gangster" in the past, in recent months he has said that the war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate and that it is necessary to seek an end to it.

Trump invited Tulsi Gabbard to the position of head of the National Intelligence Service, who called Russia's fears of Ukraine's membership in NATO "legitimate" and criticized Biden for military aid to Kiev.

Congressman Mike Waltz will be the national security assistant in the incoming Trump administration. He criticized the Russian invasion, but in the spring he was one of those Republicans who voted against providing financial and military aid to Kiev.

Much will depend on who Trump appoints as his special representative for the war in Ukraine.

Currently, there is no such position in the White House, but, according to Reuters, its creation is being considered. As the agency learns, the possibility of appointing the former US ambassador to Germany, Richard Grennell, among others, is being considered for that position. In the past, he has spoken in favor of stopping the war and against the current admission of Ukraine into NATO.

Vladimir Putin said Trump's desire to end the war "deserves attention."

BBC Ukraine previously wrote about how Kiev views the prospect of peace talks. On the one hand, Ukrainian authorities hope to gain as much as possible during the final months of Joe Biden's administration. On the other hand, Kyiv is already establishing contacts with the new administration.

Europe: Ukraine is promised support, but everyone has a different opinion on how to end the war

Ukraine's European allies have not outlined their plans for a peaceful solution. The formal position of the European Union is as follows: only Kiev will decide how and when to negotiate with Moscow, while Europe will support Ukraine with money, weapons and sanctions against Russia in the meantime.

Regarding the specific scenarios for ending the war, the opinions of the countries differ significantly.

Among Kiev's allies, the most conservative position is occupied by Germany - the country that provides the second largest aid to Ukraine after the USA. Chancellor Olaf Scholz speaks out against Ukraine joining NATO, fearing a direct conflict between the alliance and Russia. He did not change this position even after Russia used the Oreshnik missile in Ukraine and threatened to strike Europe. On the contrary, Scholz once again reiterated that Europe must do everything in its power to avoid an escalation of the war.

 

Moreover, in mid-November, Scholz spoke on the phone with Vladimir Putin for the first time in two years. He announced from Berlin that the chancellor invited Putin to negotiate with Kiev in order to "establish a just and reliable peace". Putin, according to Kremlin statements, told Scholz that peace negotiations should be conducted "on the basis of new territorial realities."

Volodymyr Zelensky called the conversation "Pandora's box" and repeated that Russia is not asking for peace, but only asking for an end in order to continue the war later.

 

Scholz's stance on ending the war is important, but after the collapse of the coalition in February, the chancellor faces a snap election. In other European capitals, opinions differ on exactly how to help Kiev and end the war.

In Paris, there is public talk of support for the "victory plan". Hungary demands an immediate start of negotiations between Moscow and Ukraine.

The UK is pledging aid to Ukraine even if the US cuts supplies and funding and publicly supports Kiev's reluctance to discuss ceding Ukrainian territories. Moreover, although London has not publicly announced the decision to allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use long-range Storm Shadow missiles to hit targets inside Russia, in practice this is already happening.

At the same time, one of the main supporters of Ukraine in Europe, the president of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, has repeatedly said in recent months that it is difficult to achieve a "100 percent just peace" for Ukraine (that is, the return of all territories and the payment of reparations). Pavel, a former NATO general, said that Ukraine will have to come to terms with the fact that after the end of the war, part of its territory will be under Russian control, at least "temporarily".

According to the WSJ, in recent weeks, given the escalation of attacks on Ukraine and the advance of the Russian army in the Donbass, the number of countries in Europe that agree with Trump's plan, which seeks to achieve peace talks between Moscow and Kiev, is growing.

The rest of the world: Beijing stands for all good against all bad with the Global South

Other countries are also closely following the events in Ukraine. And some are trying to actively participate in conflict resolution and even offer their plans to Russia and Ukraine.

For example, as Bloomberg has learned, Turkish President Recep Erdogan has his own proposals. Turkey is not the only NATO member state that maintains close relations with Moscow. Through the mediation of Ankara, they reached one of the rare agreements between Moscow and Kiev after the start of the war - an agreement on grain.

Erdogan will announce his plan at the recently held G20 summit, Bloomberg wrote. According to the agency, the plan is to freeze Ukraine's access to NATO for 10 years (in exchange for that, Kiev must receive military supplies) and create a demilitarized zone in the eastern part of the Donbass, with a contingent of peacekeepers stationed there. Turkish authorities are proposing to postpone the question of ownership of the annexed territories and instead focus on a ceasefire.

It is unclear whether Ankara delivered this plan to the Russian and Ukrainian sides, the Turkish authorities deny its existence.

China and Brazil also have their own plan - these countries have already managed to gather a large coalition around it. At the end of September, these countries in a coalition with the countries of the Global South (which Kiev and Moscow have been trying to attract to their side since the beginning of the war) created the "Friends of Peace" platform. The group's meeting was held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly - China and Brazil were joined by representatives of 17 other countries, including Egypt, Indonesia, South Africa, Mexico and Zambia.

The meeting was attended by representatives of three European countries - Switzerland, France and Hungary.

The plan itself, which formed the basis of the platform, consists of six points: the cessation of hostilities, the holding of a housing conference, humanitarian aid and the exchange of prisoners of war, the rejection of the use of weapons of mass destruction and strikes on nuclear facilities, and ensuring the stability of global supply.

In the final statement based on the results of the meeting (Algeria, Kazakhstan, Turkey and others joined it) it is stated that countries call for respect for the UN Charter and the territorial integrity of states, but at the same time - for respect for the "legitimate concerns of states." Taking into account that Vladimir Putin explained the need for the invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of its territories with "legitimate fears" of possible aggression, it is not clear how such a plan can reconcile the two countries.

The Russian side reacted positively to the Chinese-Brazilian initiative. Yuriy Ushakov, Vladimir Putin's foreign policy aide, said the country's leaders discussed its position at the BRICS summit in Kazan (so without Kiev's participation) in late November.

Volodymyr Zelensky, on the other hand, called this plan "destructive".

"How can you propose your initiative without asking us anything? And Russia intervenes and says: 'We support this initiative'!", Zelenski was outraged: "We are not stupid! What is this theater for?".