"Water War": What Will Happen to the Northern Crimean Canal

What is the current situation of the Northern Crimean Canal and what does it affect? Will Russia be able to solve the problem of land irrigation in the occupied territories of the south? This is what the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty project "News of the Azov Region" is investigating.

Sergey Gapon, head of the GIS Laboratory at the World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development, told "Azov News" that after 2014, the Russian occupation authorities in Crimea used separate sections of the Northern Crimean Canal to transport water from underground sources. Now, based on Saldo's statements, they will do the same.

 

About the Negative Consequences

 

"More than 50 percent of the canal was completely neglected and unused for almost 10 years. However, some parts, especially those leading to the eastern Crimea and supplying Feodosia, the Kerch Peninsula, began to be actively used for water transport from underground sources around 2016. In other words, water from artesian wells was used, which was transported to the eastern Crimea. Many artesian sources started flowing rapidly due to the fact that water was actively used. That is, water was not being consumed in tens or hundreds of liters per second, but very often in cubic meters per second," recalled Gapon.

According to Gapon, there is now a real possibility of using those sections of the Northern Crimean Canal for transporting local water, as was done about eight years ago.

"The consequences are mainly ecological, and of course, they are mostly negative, or 100 percent negative, because changes in the groundwater level greatly affect the functioning of natural landscapes. The region has experienced such changes more than twice in the past decade. The soil's salt level changes, leading to a change in the functioning of the entire ecosystem," emphasizes the expert.

 

"The 'Golden' Water"

 

Sergei Aksyonov, appointed by Russia to govern Crimea, immediately after the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, stated that there is enough water on the peninsula for the needs of the population. Regarding irrigation, he is convinced that this problem can only be solved after the war.

The problem with land irrigation is that it requires a lot of water, and the Northern Crimean Canal has addressed this issue, says expert Gapon. There is not enough water from other sources in Crimea.

"When it comes to the population, the amount of water needed to sustain it is large, but not as much as for agriculture. Using underground wells for agriculture only leads to further depletion, even faster; their number decreases, and it is already, in principle, catastrophically low. There is great concern that it simply won't be enough for the needs of the population because the water quality in Crimea has greatly deteriorated over the past 10 years. So, the Northern Crimean Canal will not be an alternative for agriculture here. And if it does exist, then it is water that will be 'golden' in the literal sense of the word. Such water cannot be used for irrigation because it is possible to consume so much water in a year that it will not recover normally for decades," warned Gapon.

 

"Declining Field Bioproductivity"

 

Due to problems with the irrigation system in the occupied territories of the Kherson region, some land can no longer be used for agricultural activities. In the future, the situation in this region will depend on the climate.

"Satellite images show that the bioproductivity of many fields is declining. The regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia are turning from advanced regions into ones that produce a lot of products. And those who can still obtain water in various ways, they get it and maintain it at a normal level. And where the systems have long been disrupted by hostilities, simply because they were not cared for, then a large part of the region can rely on agricultural production only when it rains literally. Then the region really produces normal amounts of products," emphasized Gapon.

 

"Forecast - Low Harvests"

 

Serhiy Rybalko, the head of the Adelaide farm and a member of the Regional Council of Kherson, believes that this part of the region will gradually turn into a desert without irrigation systems.

 

"The past two years have been very rainy, very good, so we could work without irrigation. But we understand that a certain number of crops, such as certain vegetables, orchards, soybeans, melons, rice, cannot be grown without irrigation. Most likely, this whole group of agricultural crops will not be cultivated here. Wheat, rapeseed, and sunflower will be grown, but these are low-profit crops. Without irrigation, they will yield very low yields. Profitability is 50 percent. Half is profitable, half is unprofitable. Ultimately, it's zero work," explained Rybalko.

 

"Deadly Water"

 

The amount of water sufficient for irrigation in the south can only be taken from the Dnieper, but there is no such possibility after the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station, says the entrepreneur.

"No one will pump water from the Dnieper. It is impossible to start the Northern Crimea Canal or the Main Kakhovka Canal because, firstly, the water level has dropped by almost 18 meters, and it is impossible to draw this water from the Kakhovka reservoir and pump it there. If we talk about drilling wells and releasing groundwater into the canal, then it should be understood that this is also very difficult; it is difficult to fill the canal in this way. Secondly, at a distance of about 20-30 kilometers from the Dnieper, we no longer have fresh water in the canal. All the water in those wells is highly saline, with two to three percent, and in some cases up to five percent salinity. In other words, that water kills the plant more than it helps it grow," explained Rybalko.

 

 

The Fate of the Canal After De-Occupation

 

Dean of the Faculty of Natural Sciences at the National University "Kyiv-Mohyla Academy," Professor Yevhen Hlobystov, told "Novosti iz Azova" that after the de-occupation of the territories, the North Crimean Canal will need to be restored. It is unlikely to function in its current state.

"The canal has been without water for 10 years. There was a small breach in one of these canals when the Russians occupied part of the Kherson region and let water through it, but it was of very poor quality. Experts have considered some options regarding recovery after the de-occupation of Crimea. Specifically, this is the closed form of the canal, which can save us from this excess evaporation. And other technical ideas on this issue. But most likely, in its current form, it will no longer function. Because to restore its permeability, such huge funds will be needed that can be compared to building a new building with similar functionality," Hlobystov noted.

 

Dependency on the North Crimean Canal is not as pronounced in Crimea today, says the scientist, because there is actually no agriculture left in Crimea. But after the peninsula's liberation, Ukraine will have to introduce a full water supply system to the region.

According to his opinion, in the period of global climate change, Crimea can expect even drier years, so there will be a certain water deficit, but not every year. After the de-occupation of Crimea, Ukraine will face the task of ensuring full, permanent, and stable water supply to the peninsula, emphasized Hlobystov.