War-Weary Ukrainians Reel under Massive Flooding

Was it Russian incompetence or a monstrous war crime? Following the massive dam breach on Tuesday morning, several possible theories have emerged to explain the disaster.

When the water out in front of their homes receded further than it ever had before, the people of Osokorivka sensed that something wasn’t right. They know the river well, but they didn’t fully understand what was going on. In the first months of the year, the lakeshore receded bit by bit, leaving behind grayish-brown mud and docks that ended far from the water’s edge. In February, the level of the reservoir was two meters lower than normal.

The village of Osokorivka lies on the right bank of the Dnieper River, the side under Ukrainian control, around 90 kilometers (56 miles) northeast of the Kakhovka Dam. The people here live with and from the water stored in the gigantic, Soviet-era Kakhovka Reservoir. They refer to it reverently as their "sea." Osokorivka Mayor Serhii Kunez, a stoic 58-year-old, is fond of talking about how he would catch crabs in the lake as a youth.

Kunez didn’t really have an explanation for the historically low water levels at the beginning of the year, but figured the dam had been damaged by artillery strikes. Few came to the conclusion that the Russians, who have controlled the dam and its power plant since early on in the war, might have been intentionally releasing water. Or that they weren’t regulating the reservoir at all – perhaps because they had no idea how to.

This spring, the level then began rising, as it does every year. But this time, the water just kept coming – and never stopped. In May, the reservoir apparently reached a record height of 17.5 meters (57 feet).

And then, in the early hours of Tuesday morning, the dam broke.