Unfinished War: How Georgia is looking for the culprit for the defeat in 2008 and playing into the hands of the occupying country

A particularly popular thesis is that there is no reaction from the world, both to the aggression against Georgia itself, and to the Kremlin's demonstrative non-compliance with the provisions of the peace agreement (instead of withdrawing troops from the territory of Georgia, the Russian authorities went for the annexation of part of its territory, confirming it as recognition of their "independence"), enabled the further aggressive policy of the Russian Federation: the annexation of Crimea, the war in Donbas and the invasion of Ukraine.

This war also changed Georgia to a great extent.

Although the Georgian opposition refused to criticize the government during hostilities, after the war the issue of responsibility for the war divided Georgian politicians.

Although President Mikheil Saakashvili managed to hang on to power after a military defeat, the Georgian Dream party won the 2012 parliamentary elections, largely due to criticism of Saakashvili for allowing the war.

This topic has returned to the rhetoric of the current Georgian government in recent years, just as the rating of the "Georgian Dream" began to decline.

And now the unbelievable is happening - the authorities are actively using the topic of the 2008 war to legitimize the foreign policy turn from the West towards Russia.

 

Date of separation

 

"Today we pay tribute to our heroic soldiers and soldiers who died in the war. The government is committed to the idea of peaceful restoration of territorial integrity and unification of the country. We are guided by the unshakable belief that a peaceful, united, strong, developed Georgia is the best prospect for Georgians, Ossetians, Abkhazia and all who live in our country, and we are doing everything to make it a reality as soon as possible," Georgian Prime Minister Iraklii Garibashvili said in a statement on August 8.

This statement is indicative in at least two points.

 

First, the head of the Government of Georgia mentions the name of the country of the aggressor only once. Instead, much of his statement refers to the guilt of the previous government and former President Saakashvili himself for those events.

"We have repeatedly said that this war could have been avoided... Once again, I want to point out that the former commander-in-chief showed great irresponsibility at the expense of the great heroism and self-sacrifice of our heroic soldiers. Many examples of heroism were presented to our people and future generations. At the same time, we became witnesses to the shame of the former commander-in-chief. You remember how he fell to the ground when he heard the sound of the plane," Garibashvili claims.

The second point is the date of this statement. For many years, Georgia claimed that the day the war began was not August 8 (as the Russian Federation insists), but the seventh, the day Russian troops entered Georgian territory and began shelling villages on the demarcation line with unoccupied territory.

This position is shared by many countries. It is no coincidence that the statements of the EU countries, the USA and Ukraine on the occasion of the 15th anniversary of the war were published on August 7.

On the other hand, the current Government of Georgia ignores it and considers August 8 as the day the war began, just as the Kremlin claims. This is very disappointing for Georgia.

And it shows that the topic of the 15-year war still affects Georgian politics.

And recently, this topic has become an important tool for explaining the deterioration of relations with the West and the simultaneous approach of the country to the aggressor.

 

"Second front" request

 

"What, you want it to be like in Ukraine?". "Do you want to do the same with Batumi as with Mariupol?"

These are the usual theses of representatives of the Georgian authorities in recent months, with which they explain their decision to stay away from the Russian-Ukrainian war, and especially the refusal to impose sanctions on the Russian Federation.

However, the use of public trauma from the 2008 war for political purposes is not limited to these topics.

Another very important thesis of the current Georgian government is that the West is allegedly asking Georgia to "open a second front" in the war against Russia.

Despite the fact that none of the Western politicians made such statements (and on the Ukrainian side, appeals did not come from leading politicians), mass propaganda is bearing fruit. A significant part of the "Georgian Dream" voters believed or allowed themselves to believe that the current problems in Georgia's relations with the European Union are not related to the country's departure from democracy, but to the reluctance to enter into a new war with the Russian Federation.

Most likely, problems in relations with the EU will only increase.

By the end of the year, the European Commission should publish a report on Tbilisi's homework, which is necessary to obtain the status of a candidate for EU membership. Given the tendency to do this homework, the findings of this report are likely to be disappointing.

Brussels' refusal may provoke Georgian society to anti-government protests.

After all, more than 80 percent of Georgian citizens believe that their country should join the EU and NATO. And instead, Georgia still cannot overcome the first barrier, which was successfully crossed by Ukraine and Moldova.

In such a situation, the Georgian authorities have to justify themselves by the fact that, in fact, all necessary reforms in Tbilisi have already been implemented, and the European Commission's refusal has other reasons, which foreshadows the current policy of non-compliance - interference and refusal to support Ukraine.

It is significant that the Georgian government has at least one ally in the EU that supports these theses. We are talking about Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. He has repeatedly stated that he considers Georgia to be the favorite in the implementation of European reforms. And the Georgian authorities in response claim that they are learning "democratic processes" precisely from Orban's Hungary.

 

Course in the Russian Federation

 

All last year, Russian propaganda did not hesitate to praise the Georgian government for its "balanced and independent" foreign policy.

However, in recent months it has been noticeable that Georgia is not only trying to stand aside from the European conflict, but is increasingly moving towards rapprochement with the Russian Federation.

Moscow and Tbilisi are restoring air connections, and on the Russian side, flights to Georgia are operated by airlines that are under Ukrainian sanctions for flights to occupied Crimea.

Russia lifts some trade restrictions on Georgian exports and restores the visa-free regime for Georgian citizens.

The Georgian authorities are trying to adopt a law on foreign agents that is, in fact, a copy of the Russian one. However, after large protests, they were forced to abandon this plan. Most likely, temporarily.

The latest scandal was the stop in Batumi of a liner with Russian passengers, among whom were Putin's propagandists and violators of Georgian legislation.

The Georgian authorities demonstratively turn a blind eye to such violations, and accuse those who go to the protests of harming the national economy, which depends on the income of the Russian Federation.

Most likely, the expected deterioration of relations with the EU will lead to a new rapprochement with Russia. A possible step in this direction could be the launch of a freight rail link between the Russian Federation and Georgia, which will pass through the territory of occupied Abkhazia.

Even more in support of the thesis about the rapprochement between Russia and Georgia is the fact that both open pro-Russian activists (until recently there were almost none in Georgia, and now their number is growing rapidly) and pro-government bots are actively working in Georgia.

Georgian society is actively promoting the idea that in response to Tbilisi's pro-Russian policy, the Kremlin could agree to the return of the occupied territories. And that this is the only chance for the return of these parts without bloodshed.

Of course, such a scenario seems absolutely utopian.

Recent history knows no examples of Russia voluntarily relinquishing something it had already occupied.

And the current pro-Russian course of Tbilisi did not even manage to stop the process of border issues - the gradual shifting of the demarcation line with the occupied territories, as a result of which the Russian Federation "bites off" more and more parts of the Georgian territory.

Despite these arguments, the idea of the possibility of a compromise with the Russian Federation and the peaceful return of the occupied territories is actively promoted in society and, obviously, will find a response among voters of an uncritical way of thinking.

 

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So, no matter how absurd it may seem, the fear of a new war with the Russian Federation, reinforced by references to the events of 2008, only pushes Georgia to become an aggressor country. And the protests currently taking place across the country in response to yet another pro-Russian government move are clearly not enough to stop this retreat.

Currently, the Georgian opposition hopes that the final rejection by the EU should mobilize citizens for much larger protests.

 

However, it seems that the Georgian authorities are ready for such a development. And they will defend themselves by referring to the 2008 war.