Ukraine 2023-2024: Russia's main line of attack

Failures in the realization of Shoigu-Gerasim's plans led to correction and adaptation to the prevailing conditions. They have become more realistic and flexible. The enemy is learning and not resting. It is not a great honor to defeat fools, it is an honor to defeat a strong enemy. Ukrainians are fighting and winning the battle against a great dark force, and this only emphasizes the power of the nation.

The Kremlin changed tactics from short-term to long-term, counting on the boa constrictor effect - gradually increasing pressure and repression, but left unchanged the strategic goal - the destruction of the Ukrainian state.

Putin believes that he is not limited by time and therefore can wait for favorable external circumstances for him, but history has seen many such "immortals" - some urinated on themselves in a cottage in Kuntsevo, others were hanged.

Putin's new plan, developed by a group of Kremlin experts, is based on three factors that determine the strength of Ukrainian resistance and national stability - Ukrainian unity, Western support, motivation and combat capability of Ukraine's defense forces.

According to Russian analysts, Ukrainian unity is a key factor and cornerstone of stability. Moving it can cause a domino effect.

Without chaos in the internal situation in Ukraine, it is impossible to achieve Russia's military goals.

The ideal situation for Russia and Putin is the return of Ukraine to the state of ungovernability and complete anarchy, in which the country found itself in 1917-1921, when the war was fought from outside and inside. When the Ukrainian army had to fight against the Bolsheviks, Denikinists and other interventionists, "republics" were created in almost every village and chiefs ruled, subordinate to no one. Instead of uniting, Ukrainian parties fought each other. When "we only did that for the entire time of our country's existence, we were cut on all sides". We know the result - another chance for Independence and Statehood has been lost for 70 long years.

In Russia, this period of Ukrainian history is well remembered and they hope to repeat it.

In order to create the necessary conditions that will ensure internal political destabilization, the new Russian plan envisages a series of successive steps – military, informational and political. Some of these measures are already in the works, some are waiting for their turn.

 

From a military point of view, the Russians are maximizing military pressure on all key areas of the front with the aim of worsening Ukrainian military positions as much as possible.

 

At the same time, via Telegram channels controlled by the Kremlin, panic is spreading about "huge" losses, "failure" of mobilization, "depleted" human resources, corruption in the army, etc.

Another important military direction is "missile terror" in the critical winter period. For this purpose, Russian troops are accumulating significant amounts of missile weapons, necessary for the destruction of energy and oil infrastructure, communication and Internet facilities, logistics hubs and transport hubs.

At the same time, an information campaign is being conducted through intelligence channels and various Putin's "useful idiots" to artificially create and demonstrate an apparently existing conflict in the highest military and political top of the country.

All these measures in the complex should create a critically negative social background, sow hopelessness and depression, increase the number of those who are ready to compromise and reduce the number of those who are sure of victory, lead to the idea of the need to change the government. Creating conditions so that the central government does not keep the situation under control and under the threat of a social explosion in the capital and the spread of protests to the regions is a change of government.

According to such a plan, civil confrontation is the most desirable scenario for the Kremlin, but elections will also serve. According to the Russian plan, as a result of the elections, it will be possible to revive and introduce the "fifth column" into the Ukrainian parliament, whose electoral list is being formed before our eyes from various "trainers-saboteurs", "specialists" among "good Russians", defenders of the Russian language , "women for peace" and "men against war".

As a result of implementing the planned subversive measures, the public consensus of Ukrainian unity should be undermined, which should lead to the destruction of Western support and the undermining of the morale and combat capacity of the Defense. Forces of Ukraine.

According to Putin's analysts, no new ruling team will be able to eliminate the political rift, implement reforms and maintain the support of the West in a short period of time, which will face the fact of the impossibility of maintaining contacts with the government, which is in a state of permanent turbulence and management chaos.

Therefore, there is only one way out for Brussels and Washington - to appeal to Moscow with the recognition of its own mistakes in the Ukrainian issue and the de jure recognition of Russia's right to Ukraine as exclusively a zone of Russian interests.

All this, I would like to emphasize, is still largely the imagination of Moscow developers, but the threat cannot be categorically underestimated. Certain phases of the outlined Russian plan are already being implemented, and all security and defense agencies are working to counter it, but our efforts will be multiplied if we have the public on our side.

Ukrainians are worthy of respect, honest and sincere conversation, worthy of knowing and understanding what will happen under such an arrangement. We will be united in our understanding of

the danger, in our actions and countermeasures, leaving no chance for the enemy to get a chance to put his plans into action.

 

 

OLEKSIY DANILOV
Sekretar RNBO Ukrayiny