TOP 10 regions of Russia by war losses. Who dies for Putin

There are no accurate data on the losses of the parties in the Russian-Ukrainian war. The Russian Federation proudly cites a relatively small number. In September, he told Šojgu about 5,000 dead since the start of the "operation". In December, "Izvestija" gave an "intelligence assessment" — "losses are minimal." At the same time, the losses of the Ukrainian side were estimated at tens of thousands. This is surprising, considering the attempts of the Russian army to advance, the announced mobilization and, finally, the recruitment of prisoners, and also the state of the front, for example, under Bahmut, which is covered with corpses.

 

The Ukrainian side also does not state the number of its losses, but counts the Russian ones. According to these data, the Russian Federation has already lost more than 135,000 people. This theoretically explains the need for mobilization, Putin's decrees to increase the size of the army, mentioned by Russian "prisoners" at the front.

Exact totals will most likely not be available until after the war. But even in this case, Russian and Ukrainian data will most likely differ. At least a similar picture is observed in the results of most wars and regional conflicts. But there is another aspect to consider, the regional arrangement - the peculiarities of the subjects of the federation. And, finally, not only the absolute numbers of losses by region, but also their share (percentage) in the population of the observed territory. After all, 100 corpses from the front will not be noticed in Moscow, and in a city with 100,000 inhabitants, that is already a large number.

This again rests on the lack of numbers. More precisely, there is a lack of them, because obituaries and materials about the dead are published in the local press (where it exists). Not about all of them, of course, but even monitoring such messages gives a figure that significantly exceeds the data of the Ministry of Defense of Russia. Moreover, in the case of following the local press, each "unit" has a name, surname, relatives, burial history.

 

A similar calculation is carried out by several organizations. Russian service BBC and Mediazone provide statistics every month. I have used their information in previous reviews. Then a vivid picture emerged - the most massive (as a percentage of the population) losses were in national autonomies and depressed regions with a wage level significantly lower than the Russian average. And the smallest share of losses is in "rich" and developed territories. Simply put, those who had no chance of securing a decent life under Putin in today's Russia were sent to die for Putin. And the difference in the percentage of the dead (from the population) reached 50-60 times.

TOP 10 regions by share of losses

 

Some time has passed since September 2022 when we analyzed the regional share of frontline losses. Russia managed to escape from the Kherson region and continued its attempts to attack Bakhmut. There were losses (which only increased), the mobilization was carried out, the TOP 10 regions with the maximum and minimum share of losses changed.

In September, Šojgu spoke about 5,937 dead. A check of the local press at the time gave a figure of 6,424 buried. And these are the ones the media wrote about, because not all cases of the burial of the "black package" that arrived from the front end up in the media. And in some regions (villages, cities, etc.) there may be no local media at all.

At the beginning of February 2023, the number of confirmed burials in the Russian Federation doubled to 12,925 cases. The TOP 10 regions with the highest number of deaths in the war (per 10,000 inhabitants) were also changed, whereby a clear border can be followed between the regions that supply the front with cannon fodder and all the others. If the average number of people buried in the Russian Federation is 0.008 percent, then the regions with the most deaths have figures from 0.02 to 0.042 percent.

 

This list, which includes 11 instead of 10 regions, looks like this:

 

Tiva (0.0425 percent or 4 confirmed burial sites per 10,000 inhabitants)

Buryatia (0.04 percent)

Nenets dd (0.036 percent)

North Ossetia (0.0277 percent)

Magadan region (0.0276 percent)

Transbaikal Territory (0.0256 percent)

Republic of Altai (0.0244 percent)

Sakhalin region (0.0242 percent)

Chukotka Autonomous District (0.024 percent)

Pskov region (0.022 percent)

Kostroma region (0.0205 percent)

Then there is a significant gap. To understand the scale of the problem for the mentioned regions, we emphasize that the average indicator for the Russian Federation is 0.008 percent.

 

And here are the TOP 10 regions with the smallest share of losses at the front:

 

Moscow (0.0006 percent or six burials per million inhabitants (not 10,000))

Saint Petersburg (0.0021 percent)

Tyumen region (0.0028 percent)

Moscow Region (0.0029 percent)

Khanty-Mansiysk (0.0037 percent)

JANAO (0.0047 percent)

Kemerovo region (0.0048 percent)

Kaluga region (0.005 percent)

Tula region (0.0059 percent)

Tomsk region (0.006 percent)

 

Each group has its own characteristics. The leading regions in terms of the share of recognized losses usually have an average salary that is significantly lower than the average Russian level. Unlike the September rating, the "asset" gap is no longer visible. The reason is the ranking of five regions with "northern additions" at once. But they all have common characteristics - in total there are only four industrial enterprises in the TOP 250 of Russian industry in 10 regions. There is no one in the TOP 50 companies for 10 regions. Simply put, these are depressed or harsh regions (which, from the point of view of socio-economic development, can also be classified as depressed). And most of them are located far from the center.

The regions with the lowest share of losses have more in common. In each of them, the income level is higher than the Russian average. At least 30 percent of Russian industrial potential is concentrated in these regions (including a company in the TOP 250 Russian companies). At least 30 universities among the Russian TOP 50 are concentrated in these territories. And, in the end, these are either "main" regions or key raw material territories.

At the same time, the difference in the share of losses in the war according to the population of the region in Moscow and Tiva differs 70 times!

 

But the situation will change. At the same time, it is worth noting a certain leveling of indicators. The regions that served as a source of cannon fodder have relatively small reserves of human resources. And an increase in the share of losses can cause dissatisfaction at the local level. After all, even 0.042 percent in Tiva means that the war directly affected at least 0.1 percent of the population (deceased + family). And these are only cases confirmed through the mass media. The actual number may be higher.

Given the limited mobilization potential of depressed regions, the Russian Federation is forced to recruit residents of other regions of the Federation into the army. The effect was somewhat mitigated by the recruitment of prisoners. As well as the active use of those mobilized from the so-called "LPR" and "DPR", which Russian statistics will not take into account for a long time. But this resource ends sooner or later. Thus, a mobilization was carried out, which the Kremlin can not only repeat, but will repeat in the process of using manpower.

And the first results of the mobilization have already appeared in the statistics for February. So, for example, the share of confirmed deaths in the Magadan region from September to the end of January increased by 6.6 times, in Chukotka - by five times, in the Sverdlovsk region - by 2.4 times, in Janao - by three times.

This will increase the number of local funerals. The share of deaths in the population is the same. And this indicator will begin to equalize. The exception will, of course, be central and rich regions. After all, problems in key entities of the Federation are undesirable for the Kremlin. In the rest, propaganda with the image of a "great war against the West" and a regime of secrecy will work, which sooner or later will be fully understood by the owners of the local press. After that, information about the burial of those who returned from the front will become a rare exception to the rule. In this context, the task of the Ukrainian side is to continue the battle with the occupiers and to carefully calculate what they promise the "white order" or give (but then take away) fur coats.