'To the negotiator go the spoils': how Ukraine became global battleground

The war has indirectly engaged countries worldwide–some aid Ukraine, others pretend to offer peace plans, some profit from it, while others send weapons, money, and soldiers to Russia, preparing for their own future conflicts.

American analysts from Foreign Affairs argue that Europe, which has been projected power for centuries, has become the subject of power projection, and Ukraine's battlefield is now determining the future world order. Here's a summary by LIGA.net.

Hollow peace proposals

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has become a global event. Millions of Ukrainian refugees fled to the EU. Fuel and fertilizer prices soared, driving global inflation. The war disrupted production and grain trade. With the conflict nearing its third year, its repercussions continue to grow.

While the West ostensibly insists on the justice of Ukraine's military efforts, the inadmissibility of yielding to Russian demands, and the importance of Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty, actual support remains insufficient and is declining.

Fear of escalation limits the types of weapons Western nations provide to Kyiv, despite viewing the war as existential for Europe's security.

This self-restraint has opened the door to actors outside Europe.

"No country, group of countries, or international institution is powerful enough to impose a cease-fire in Ukraine, much less an armistice or a negotiated settlement. Yet no one wants to be seen as not trying to mediate," the publication notes.

Many countries are vying for this role. Turkey brokered humanitarian corridors during the Mariupol siege, mediated the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and hosted early peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE facilitated prisoner swaps. The UAE claims its efforts freed 2,200 captives, while Saudi Arabia hosted discussions in Jeddah with 40 nations (excluding Russia) on ending the war in August 2023.

Qatar reportedly mediated talks between Moscow and Kyiv on halting strikes on energy infrastructure, according to Foreign Affairs.

Other non-European nations, from China to Brazil, have presented "peace plans." This diplomacy is notable not for its progress, but for its scale.

The war in Ukraine has led to economic costs beyond Europe. Being at the negotiating table means potentially determining the post-war economic and geopolitical landscape. "That was the lesson of the conferences at Versailles, Yalta, and Potsdam after the two world wars: to the negotiator go the spoils," the article notes.

Thus, Ukraine's post-war future matters to everyone.

Arms and troops for Russia

While international diplomacy remains ephemeral, support for Russia's military-industrial complex is tangible. Western sanctions weren't designed to change the Kremlin's regime or even raise the cost of war for Russia. Their goal was to stifle Moscow's military efforts, deprive it of capital and technology, and give Kyiv a long-term advantage.

"Out of economic self-interest, non-European countries have undercut this approach by maintaining ties with Russia; by purchasing Russian oil, gas, and fertilizer; and by facilitating its 'roundabout' trade. Throwing lifelines to Russia's economy enhances its military machine."

Even if strengthening Russia's military-industrial complex isn't the goal of Brazil, India, or Saudi Arabia. But if these countries' priority was Russia's defeat, they would act differently.

The most significant contributors, however, are countries providing direct military aid to Russia. China supplies dual-use goods—from machinery to chips—crucial for Russia's weapons manufacturers, giving Beijing leverage over the war.

Iran delivers combat drones, ammunition, and short-range ballistic missiles, continuing its supply even as tensions with Israel temporarily slow volumes.

Though Iranian missiles haven't yet appeared on Ukraine's battlefields, Russia has been using North Korean missiles since early 2024. Pyongyang also supplied nearly half the artillery shells Russia currently uses. Once dismissed as "fellow pariahs," Iran and North Korea are now actively shaping the conflict's trajectory.

"Given the importance of manpower in a war of attrition, the first battlefield employment of thousands of North Korean troops recently deployed to Russia marks another escalation in non-European involvement."

While Moscow already has a manpower advantage, it has lost an enormous number of soldiers in this war. Putin resists calling for another mobilization. Reports over the past two years suggest Russia has recruited Cuban, Indian, and Nepali mercenaries.

However, deploying North Korean forces represents a different scale. The West has few tools to stop Pyongyang, which has long been isolated and heavily sanctioned.

The war is slowly transforming into the world's war. For China, Iran, and North Korea, deeper involvement helps them prepare for their own wars they plan to eventually start. This isn't just about tangible contributions to these countries' defense capabilities from Russia in return for help, but also about learning from a real battlefield–in Ukraine.

Chinese strategists are studying the effectiveness of drones and HIMARS systems, which they might hypothetically face in a war over Taiwan. Iran has obtained captured Western technologies in Ukraine, including anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, which it can study to design its analogs or develop countermeasures. North Korea is simply training its soldiers–Pyongyang hasn't fought since the Korean War of 1950-1953.

"Ukraine has become a laboratory for non-European powers contemplating future wars."

The world comes to Europe

Since the 16th century, Europe has primarily waged wars outside its borders. In recent decades, Europeans fought in Afghanistan and Iraq, and France maintained troops in Africa's Sahel region until recently.

For NATO, projecting European power beyond the continent has been a Cold War necessity. European forces joined the U.S. in Korea and Vietnam and participated in Libya's 2011 intervention. Washington welcomed their involvement in combating terrorism and dictatorships.

Europe's long history of power projection has shaped the worldview of Western capitals, making it nearly impossible to imagine Iran or North Korea influencing European security. Yet what was once unthinkable is now reality.

The role of non-European countries in Ukraine's war is growing.

Iran and North Korea share Russia's anti-Western sentiment. Many nations benefit from prolonging the conflict in Ukraine, and they possess the tools to sustain it.

If Russia begins to falter and seeks an exit from the war, non-European nations could play a key role in diplomacy. It would matter little to Ukraine, the EU, or the U.S. which country hosts talks or whose plan prevails.

The West still has options to curb Russian aid from China, Iran, and North Korea or increase the cost of such support. But the best defense against eroding European security is smart, patient support for Ukraine—especially as U.S. military commitment to Ukraine may wane during a potential second Trump term.