The Western Balkans between myth and manipulation: Russian influence and the strategy of destabilizing the region

The Balkans have historically been called “Pandora’s Box” and “the powder keg of Europe.” The complex relationships between the peoples living there have led to numerous social, religious, ethnic, and political conflicts. Unions have formed and broken up, states have gained and lost independence. For a long time, the Balkans have been a “zone of vital interests,” as Russian Foreign Minister Alexander Gorchakov described it during the reign of Tsar Alexander II—not only for Russia, but for all the great powers of the 19th and 20th centuries.

 

The Russian Empire had sought to increase its influence in the Balkans since the late 18th century. On the one hand, this interest was explained by the desire to establish control over Constantinople—a key communications hub of the time—and over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits that would provide access to the Mediterranean. On the other hand, Russia wanted to confirm its status as the protector of the Slavic Christian peoples. Russia's main opponents in the struggle for influence were Great Britain, which sought to protect its imperial interests in Asia, and Austria-Hungary, which considered the Balkans its own backyard.

 

When Ivan Zinoviev was appointed Russian ambassador to Constantinople, he was tasked with developing friendly relations with Turkey and preventing any power from strengthening its position at the expense of others. The main line of Russian policy in the Balkans at the end of the 19th century was to “freeze” the conflict, in order to avoid the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and, thus, a new major international war.

 

It should be remembered that every Russian ruler in the 19th and early 20th centuries claimed that Russia was “liberating” some peoples, “helping” others, and “enlightening” others. One of the most striking examples of this rhetoric is the Balkans, which Russian troops “liberated” from Ottoman rule during the Russo-Turkish War of 1875–1878. However, it should be noted that the main mobilization activities for this war were carried out on the territory of present-day Ukraine, which was geographically closest to the Balkans.

 

The Russian plan was military, political, and cultural expansion, with the aim of turning the Balkan countries into a shield against the West and Turkey. The Russians openly questioned the ethnic independence of their “protected” peoples, thereby justifying their own aggressive policy. Systems of Russian military administration were established in the conquered territories – contrary to applicable international treaties. Thus, the ideological matrix of Russian expansionism in the region was formed.

Today, Moscow continues to actively challenge Western policy in the Balkans, without offering any viable alternatives for reconciliation and coexistence of the peoples of the region. The Kremlin’s policy is aimed at polarizing societies and generating conflicts. In doing so, it uses instruments such as Pan-Slavism, Orthodoxy, and the myth of a “special historical relationship” between Russia and the Slavic peoples of the Balkans. The Kremlin insists on the narrative that only Russia cares about Serbs, Montenegrins, and Macedonians, while the West supposedly supports only Albanians, Bosniaks, and Croats.

 

Russian propaganda often portrays Russians as the “older brothers” of Slavic peoples, although historically, Russians have the least Slavic ancestry – the first Slavs arrived in the territory of present-day Russia only in the 8th century, while they came to the Balkans as early as the 6th century from the territory of present-day Ukraine.

 

The instruments of Russian policy include pro-Russian propaganda, anti-Western rhetoric, the corruption of influential individuals, the organization of provocations, assassination attempts, and coups. Russia shows a strong interest in the region in order to maintain the possibility of influencing political processes. At the same time, through limited resources and institutional capacities, the Kremlin is trying to destabilize the region instead of competing with it constructively.

 

The Western Balkans can serve as a flashpoint for Moscow to divert attention from the war in Ukraine. The aim is to undermine NATO and EU efforts in the region. The accession of countries such as Croatia, Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia to NATO is deeply irritating to Moscow, which is testing the strength of Atlantic solidarity in these countries, hoping to show that NATO membership is not a real guarantee of security.

 

In this sense, the Western Balkans have become a battlefield for special influence operations, which Moscow also conducts in the countries of the former Soviet Union. The Kremlin uses social media, especially fake profiles, for psychological and political operations. Media outlets such as Sputnik and RT, as well as the Telegram app, are becoming key channels for distributing propaganda.

 

Religion is another tool. During nationalist protests, church rhetoric and ideology are often used to create resistance to supposedly “decadent” Western values. The Kremlin also uses youth in a targeted manner, organizing events through the "Russian House", distributing music and cultural content with messages of national exclusivity and alleged Russian superiority.

 

Russian intelligence services use culture, music, art, literature and history as a means of influence, systematically working on this approach for decades. The most drastic example is Ukraine. Although the Kremlin has promoted the narrative of the “brotherly” Ukrainian people for years, from the moment Ukraine began to approach the EU and NATO, the Russians began to portray it as a Nazi threat that must be destroyed.

The suffering of the Ukrainian people today is comparable to the crimes committed against them by the Nazis during World War II. Then Ukraine lost 10 million people, more than any other European country. Today it is fighting again, this time against Moscow, which proclaims itself the heir to the Third Rome.

 

The free peoples of Europe must unite to stop the ideology of “Russian fascism” – Russism. The Third Rome will suffer the same fate as the Third Reich. And the Slavic peoples of the Western Balkans must remember: Russia was never a good mother to them – but an evil stepmother.