THE STRUGGLE FOR INFLUENCE: Experts warn of the strengthening of China in the Western Balkans, they say that this is a threat to the region's entry into the EU

 

The strengthening of China's influence in the countries of the Western Balkans is causing increasing headaches for the European Union.

In a recently published analysis of China's influence in the region, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation and the Wilfried Martnes Center for European Studies warn that China's growing influence in the Western Balkans is actually pushing those countries away from EU membership.

They are worried about the relationship between Beijing and Moscow

The reason for this is that there is a strong Chinese influence that is not in line with the EU acquis in a number of areas, especially in the segment of the rule of law, freedom of movement of goods, public procurement, commercial law and media freedom. Also, Chinese influence has a negative impact on the preparation of these countries for EU membership in numerous standards, such as food safety and phytosanitary policy, as well as environmental protection and taxation.

Experts from the aforementioned two think-tanks, close to the European People's Party (EPP), as well as the EU itself, are concerned about the security aspect of expanding Chinese influence in the region. This came to the fore especially after the Russian aggression against Ukraine, during which Beijing continued to strengthen relations with Moscow.

 

Disputed visa regime

The analysis also assesses that the strengthening of the relations of the countries of the region with China has a negative impact on the harmonization of their policy with the common foreign policy of the Union.

Namely, Chinese citizens (with the exception of those in Hong Kong and Macau) need a visa to visit EU members, while, on the other hand, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia do not require visas. However, Montenegro and North Macedonia, as well as Kosovo, which China does not recognize, require visas for Chinese citizens.

China's visa policy differs from one EU member state to another, so citizens of some countries do not need a Chinese visa for a short-term visit to that country, while others do. Croatian citizens, for example, need a visa to enter China.

 

On the other hand, China does not require visas for citizens of Albania, BiH and Serbia. However, following the principle of reciprocity, citizens of Albania and North Macedonia need a visa to enter China. Holders of Kosovo passports must also apply for a visa to enter China.

Chinese influence in the region has grown especially in the last ten years

The analysis warns that China's influence in the region has grown strongly in the last ten years and that it threatens to "undermine the accession process", especially since China's rules of the game in many areas of the EU acquis differ from those in force in the Union.

"In general, the Chinese presence in the Western Balkans represents a challenge to the region's efforts to adhere to EU values and standards," the analysis states.

It is added that the Chinese influence is particularly strong in Serbia and BiH, especially in the Republika Srpska. In other countries of the region, it is smaller, but that does not mean that it does not exist.

"Cooperation with China in trade, investment and infrastructure projects certainly has its advantages, such as lower prices for consumers and opportunities for local companies. However, it is a cause for concern about the quality and safety of Chinese imports, possible exploitation of workers, distortion of competition and circumvention of rules on state aid. Some countries, such as Serbia, offer special benefits to Chinese companies, but such practices must be harmonized with EU standards if the country wants to join the Union," the analysis warns.

It also refers to the loans given by Chinese state banks, which threaten to create debt dependence on China.

 

China is one of the most important foreign trade partners for the EU

The strengthening of Chinese influence in Europe, and especially in the countries of the Western Balkans, has long worried EU leaders. In Brussels, however, they often forget that China is one of the Union's largest foreign trade partners.

Thus, according to Eurostat data, more than a fifth, or 20.8 percent, of all goods in the EU last year were imported from China. China was the country from which the EU imported the most, significantly more than from the USA (11.9 percent), the United Kingdom (7.3 percent) or Russia (6.8 percent), and Norway (5.4 percent).

Last year, China was the third most important export market for the EU, with a share of nine percent of total exports from the Union. Companies from the Union exported more than to China only to the USA (19.8 percent of total exports from the EU) and Great Britain (12.8 percent).

In 2022, companies from the EU placed a higher value of goods on the Chinese market than in Switzerland (7.3 percent of total EU exports) and Turkey (3.9 percent), according to data from Eurostatisticians.

 

New Silk Road

 

The significance of China for the trade of the countries of the Western Balkans is not so great because it is still the main market for the placement of EU goods for all of them. The Union is also the market from which the countries of the Western Balkans import the most.

But China's influence is also growing, especially since the Belt and Road initiative, popularly called the "new Silk Road", was launched 10 years ago. Namely, China is more and more present in the region both through the exchange of goods and the increasing exchange of services (tourism), as well as through investment projects and investments.

 

China's economy has become the second largest in the world

According to the World Bank, China has the second largest economy in the world. China's gross domestic product (GDP) was slightly less than 18 trillion US dollars last year, which means that only the USA had a larger economy, whose GDP in 2022 was about 25.5 trillion dollars.

China alone accounts for almost 18 percent of world GDP, according to data from the World Bank.

Of course, the level of development of China and the USA cannot be compared, since China's GDP per capita, also according to World Bank data, is even six times lower than that of the USA. Namely, GDP per inhabitant in China, according to the same data, was 12,720 dollars last year, while in the USA it reached almost 76,400 dollars.

 

China overtook the EU

Nevertheless, the strong economic rise of China in recent decades is a big cause for concern both in the US and in the EU.

Namely, China overtook the EU in terms of the size of its economy, as evidenced by the fact that the EU's GDP last year was, according to the World Bank, about 16.6 trillion dollars.

 

Strong China was built by Western capital

For China's rise, warns political scientist and sociologist Anđelko Milardović, American and European, and especially German, capital are the most responsible. Namely, numerous American and European companies have moved their production to China in recent decades, attracted by the huge market and cheap labor force.

China's economic rise has also strengthened China's position on the international stage, since it is a large country that is also a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council with veto power and nuclear weapons.

 

"The strengthening of China led to the fact that it is expanding its influence around the world, including in the Western Balkans, but also in the EU. So who built the Pelješki Bridge in Croatia, and with money from EU funds?" Milardović points out for Euractiv.

It is unlikely that China could dissuade the countries of the region from EU membership

However, he agrees that China's influence in the Western Balkans is getting stronger and that this can potentially pose a problem in the integration of the countries of the region into the EU. This, he says, especially applies to Serbia and BiH, that is, Republika Srpska, where the Chinese are also significant investors.

But, he adds, for something like that to happen, it is necessary for Chinese influence to prevail in the region, which does not seem realistic. It also requires the political elites to turn away from Brussels and turn to Beijing, which also does not seem likely. In the whole story, one should not lose sight of the fact that China is still far from the Western Balkans, while the Western Balkans itself is surrounded by the Union.

"In a global world where national barriers are falling, all the big players are trying to expand their influence. China is also a big player. That's why you shouldn't blame it for trying to expand its influence, it's simply guided by its own interests," concludes Milardović.

 

Russia's influence is a bigger problem than China's influence

When the line is drawn, it can be said that the influence of Russia, and perhaps some other countries in the region, remains a bigger problem for the EU than the influence of China. However, the Chinese influence should not be neglected either, especially in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and then also in other countries of the Western Balkans.

At the same time, it should be said that the interests of Moscow and Beijing are not necessarily on the same track. Moreover, despite the proclaimed partnership, Russia and China act independently on the world stage, often from positions that do not go hand in hand.