The second phase of the war and the beginning of the collapse of the "Barbarossa Plan"

"The second blitzkrieg is planned in Ukraine - the rapid capture of Kiev and the introduction of a government loyal to Russia. Then the legalization of the occupation of Crimea, the Black Sea and the Azov region, the quasi-entity" LDNR "," denazification "and" demilitarization ".

Andrei Jermak, the head of the cabinet of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, announced the beginning of the "second phase of the war". It is about the offensive in Donbas, which has been intensified since April 18.

The outlines of Russia's strategy for the entire current year are already visible.

The "Barbarossa Plan" in the 21st century was supposed to consist of an Anschluss, two blitzkriegs, and look like this.

A "three-act" plan to revive the "quasi-USSR" is planned.

Given the love of Moscow's "Gerontians" for round dates, the end of the "multi-walk" is planned for December 2022, ie the centenary of the formation of the Soviet Union. Anschluss - annexation of Belarus, involvement in joint aggressive actions.

The first blitzkrieg is Kazakhstan.

To that end, at the beginning of this year, a special operation was conducted in which Kazakh powerful people participated. Blitzkrieg in Kazakhstan was directed against the political elites of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who are accused of nationalism because they advocate Latin instead of Cyrillic, rapprochement with Turkey, revision of historical narratives, gradual expulsion of Russian from the official sphere, etc. internal clan conflicts.

But it seems that the whole process of "denursultanization" of Kazakhstan started with the current president Kasim Tokayev. As a result, CSTO troops entered the country, mostly from Russia and Belarus.

At the end of January 2022, many were convinced that Kazakhstan would soon become the third member of the Union of Russia and Belarus, withdraw from informal integration with the Turkish Union, and return the Cyrillic alphabet and previous historical narratives.

Another blitzkrieg is planned in Ukraine - the rapid capture of Kiev and the bringing of a government loyal to Russia.

Then the legalization of the occupation of Crimea, the Black Sea region and the Azov region, the quasi-entity "LDNR", "denazification" and "demilitarization".

As a result, the country would be divided and consolidated by placing Russian troops somewhere along the Zbruch River line.

In December 2022, according to the authors of the plan, nothing should have prevented the creation of a new state - a Union consisting of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.

It was this format of new integration that was in the dreams of Alexander Solzhenitsyn, who was an opponent of the USSR, but complained about the impossibility of reviving the new union of the four above-mentioned states.

Solzhenitsyn's ideas decisively influenced Putin's doctrinal beliefs.

"NATO is methodically and persistently developing its military apparatus - in Eastern Europe and on the continental part towards Russia from the south.

Material and ideological support for the "colored" revolutions and the paradoxical introduction of North Atlantic interests in Central Asia are open here.

All this leaves no doubt that a complete encirclement of Russia is being prepared, and then its loss of sovereignty ", this is not an excerpt from Putin's next speech, but a fragment of Solzhenitsyn's interview from 2006, a year before the Russian president's" Munich speech ".

The first part of the "Barbarossa Plan" in the form of a light Anschluss of Belarus went smoothly.

The second part is - a military blitzkrieg in Kazakhstan - too. The exercises in the occupation of the country by the CSTO in 24 hours were successful.

But Ukraine's violation disrupted the third step in the plan for the reincarnation of the USSR. Blitzkrieg in Kiev failed. The Ukrainian government did not surrender or hold separate talks. Russia had to show the true essence of "polite green people".

So zealous that Kazakhstan's position has changed - Kazakhs have expressed support for Ukraine, increased their turn to China and renewed their integration into the Turkish Union instead of Russia as a balance of Chinese influence, focusing on Turkey, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

Russia intended to frighten Kazakhstan with the rapid occupation of Ukraine, but now it has frightened only its neighborhood, from which Nursultan Nazarbayev will be saved by Beijing and Ankara. And instead of Kazakhstan, the Union will have to accept fragments in the form of Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, etc.

Russia's Plan "A" failed due to heroic resistance. The "beautiful" USSR does not work, you need to shape the "bumps". Russia is also moving to Plan B - an attempt to carry out the maximum occupation of Ukrainian territories in the southeast of the country: Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhia. The goal is to create a "second Ukraine" as the "successor to the USSR."

Moscow will desperately save the "December 2022 project" and create a "different Ukraine" in order to preserve the concept of signing a tripartite union. And Ukraine, as a sovereign state, is the only one that can oppose this plan.

Why is this critical?

If the concept of creating a "quasi-USSR" is completed in December 2022, Moscow will create a new narrative about "the tasks of the special operation in Ukraine" and that "we no longer need that destroyed country."

In my opinion, the chances of continuing active hostilities from October this year are minimal.

After all, for a farce in the form of a "new union agreement", it is necessary to have time to wipe the ashes from the ruins of the occupied territories and "ideologically" reshape the consciousness of the electorate for a new format of goals.

In addition to the factor of round dates (100 years since the formation of the USSR), there is also the factor of the coming crisis. In November and December 2022, Russia will enter the peak of the crisis: a fall in GDP by 10-15 percent and revenue by 20-30 percent.

But ideologically, the Russian Federation is the Panem from the Hunger Games, which consists of districts - subjects of the federation. The people need glasses to divert attention from the crisis.

In the period 2014-2015, the main actor in the Hunger Games was Crimea. In December 2022 - the new USSR should become.

Creating a "different Ukraine" carries long-term risks for us, when after a while the Russian Federation will want to show the "civil conflict" in Ukraine again. Russia's attempts to mobilize in the occupied territories of Ukraine are only part of this underlying plan.

But if the Ukrainian army manages to keep the enemy on the line of demarcation - the Russian project of creating a "different Ukraine" will fail. In the "new USSR" it will be necessary to take only fragments in the form of the so-called "LDNR" and take a long break in attempts at new aggression against Ukraine.

Chechnya received such a break in August 1996 in the form of the Khasavyurt Accords. In August 1999, the second Chechen war began. But then, Chechnya did not use the historic opportunity to strengthen its statehood, and no one imposed sanctions on Russia.

Ukraine's current strategy should be to destroy Russia's plan to occupy a number of regions and make the most of the historic pause (from the fall of 2022) to strengthen the economy and integrate into the EU. And Western sanctions on Russia will do their job, and in two to three years, Russia will not have the current potential for aggression.

Most likely, the empire will continue to try to keep the occupied parts and its ability to expand will weigh zero.

Ukraine has already disrupted two cycles of the "Barbarossa Plan", maybe a third.