The Repayment of Crimea
A series of articles in American publications about a possible peace plan by former US President Donald Trump – though Trump's staff denies the existence of such a plan – have revived the debate on the topic of exchanging "territorial concessions" to end the war. Essentially, it's about Crimea and Donbas paying for peace. And of course, these are by no means the first publications allowing for the possibility of such concessions.
However, the concept of such an exchange is fundamentally flawed. Those who believe that war can be stopped by Crimea paying the price for peace misjudge the Russo-Ukrainian conflict as merely a territorial dispute. It's worth reminding that it was precisely in such terms that what happened was perceived in 2014, during the occupation and subsequent annexation of Crimea. At that time, many in the West argued that this was an important territory for Russia, and after its seizure, Russia would have no further claims on Ukraine. Former US President Barack Obama demanded that Russian President Vladimir Putin refrain from invading mainland Ukraine, which, however, did not prevent the Kremlin from launching an undeclared war in Donbas.
And then the talk began about the peculiarities of this Ukrainian region, about the traditional sympathies of its population towards Russia, about "separatism" - although such separatism in Donbas could not be found until 2014, not even under scrutiny. Not to mention the fact that until 2014, the president of the country, the speaker of parliament, and almost all government officials were from Donetsk Oblast, and the head of the parliamentary faction of the ruling party was from Luhansk Oblast. Do we need further evidence that the inhabitants of both regions actively participated in the all-Ukrainian political process and did not consider secession?
But now, five Ukrainian regions are mentioned in the Russian constitution. The regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia are not even part of Donbas, but their territories were occupied by Russian troops in 2022. And there is no doubt that if the Russian side managed to establish control over other Ukrainian regions, it would also annex those parts of Ukraine. In fact, this was recently unequivocally stated by the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev: the whole of Ukraine should become part of Russia. Not just Crimea and Donbas.
Therefore, Russia's war against Ukraine is not a war for territory but a war for statehood. Ukraine seeks not only to restore its territorial integrity but, above all, to preserve its sovereignty. Russia seeks not only to retain the territories occupied by the Russian army but also to eliminate Ukraine's sovereignty.
That is why it is impossible to "repay" Crimea or any other Ukrainian region. Not only because Ukraine cannot renounce its own territorial integrity and the protection of the principles of international law, but also because Putin needs much more than Crimea. He needs control over the entire Ukraine. He is fighting for control over the entire Ukraine, not for a territorial reward. Moreover, the Russian president has never hidden his goal; he has confirmed it in numerous speeches, interviews, and texts. There is no reason not to believe him regarding these statements. On the contrary, we are certain that Putin seeks the restoration of the Soviet empire, not the preservation of the territory of annexed Crimea.
Therefore, no plan for exchanging territories at the end of the war will succeed - at least not in the long run.