The number of dead Russian soldiers has tripled. What do the data say about the losses of the Russian Federation in Ukraine

The "Informative Resistance" group continues to collect information about the losses of the Russian occupation forces.

By December 18, 38,753 names were recorded in this database for which comprehensive data is available. And about 700 more names, about which there are certain doubts.

We emphasize that these are names that have been officially recognized as having died or had a public burial in Russia.

That is, these are very incomplete numbers that do not allow us to make quantitative conclusions (only assumptions, extrapolations, because the real losses of the Russian Federation are many times higher), but they are quite representative for qualitative assessments and identification of trends.

What is interesting.

1. The mobilization carried out in the Russian Federation changed the structure of losses by region.

At the end of 2023, the leaders in absolute loss figures are as follows:

Krasnodar Territory — 2,241;

Sverdlovsk Region — 1,447;

Bashkortostan — 1,291;

Samara Region — 1,147;

Chelyabinsk region — 1,095;

Buryatia — 1,051;

Novosibirsk region — 995;

Perm region — 964;

Volgograd region — 948;

Moscow region — 907.

At the end of 2022, the figures were:

Krasnodar Territory — 487;

Republic of Dagestan — 370;

Buryatia — 351;

Sverdlovsk Region — 331;

Bashkortostan — 305;

Chelyabinsk region — 292;

Volgograd region — 291;

Rostov Oblast -263;

Transbaikalia — 230;

Saratov region — 212.

The number of Russian soldiers killed in 2022 was mainly a reflection of the losses of the professional army and mercenary units. Many of those killed are from regions where the army is perceived as a possibility for social advancement (eg Dagestan) and where the locations of military units are concentrated (Buryatia, Transbaikalia). At the end of last year, the September mobilization already began to correct these figures, but not critically.

The second year of the war brought losses of members of the private mercenary army "Wagner" (which is why the number of those buried in the Krasnodar Territory is very high) and voluntary forced mobilization. The quantitative relationship "the greater the number of inhabitants in the region, the more killed" (with the exception of Moscow and St. Petersburg) begins to be established.

2. Certain inconsistencies and peculiarities are immediately visible on this material.

The total number of losses of the Russian Federation by the end of December 2023 compared to the same date in 2022 increased by 3.87 times. While you can only compare calendar year, year to year will be two months later. But it is already clear that in 10 months of the first year of the war, the Kremlin officially drove more than 10,000 soldiers to the grave, and in the second - almost 30,000. We emphasize - these are those that can be found public data in Russia itself. It is also clear that there are regions with special access.

For example, Dagestan, which was on the 1st place for the number of victims for almost the whole of last year, by the end of 2023 fell to the 15th place (the 10th most populated region in the Russian Federation). Federal and regional authorities feel the limits of what is allowed and are afraid of causing discontent. How negativity can be poured out - everyone saw the example of the occupation of the airport.

Bashkortostan and Tatarstan have almost the same population, but the losses in Bashkortostan are 30 percent higher than in Tatarstan. This is the result of the zeal of the local commander Radi Khabirov, who is trying to curry favor with Moscow by promoting mobilization, creating regional units, etc.

In Ingushetia (where Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Yunus-Beg Yevkurov is from) the total number of victims increased by 30 percent this year alone. In Tuva (where Shoigu comes from) — 3.65 times.

In the Sverdlovsk region, an increase of 4.37 times was recorded. In the Krasnodar region — 4.6 times. These are prisoners recruited by the mercenary group "Wagner".

 

In Yakutia, losses increased 7.7 times. It is the result of mobilization. Do you remember the videos with the joyful send-off of Yakut to the army? Those lucky Yakuts are now among the dead.

In general, the pattern of losses shows which regional governments are active in the war and which are not showing much enthusiasm. All this is material for a future tribunal.

3. We looked at how much the regions of the Russian Federation lost for every 10,000 men of working age.

The image is as follows:

Tuva — 46;

Buryatia — 37;

Chukotka — 32;

Sakhalin — 29;

Republic of Altai — 28;

Transbaikalia — 27;

Magadan — 26;

Nenets dd — 25;

North Ossetia — 23;

Pskov region — 19;

Karelia and Komi - 18 each.

The smallest relative losses are in Moscow (less than one per 10,000), St. Petersburg (2.8 per 10,000) and Moscow Oblast (3.6 per 10,000). A Muscovite is approximately 50 times more valuable than a resident of Tuva.

In general, it must be recognized that, with the exception of a few regions, the number of losses, both in absolute and relative numbers, is still not critical, even taking extrapolation into account.

In order to understand where the sensitive points are, it is necessary to take additional elements of losses.

For example, in the Kostroma region, the increase in losses is 2.2 times, which is significantly below the average. The region never recovered from the total destruction of the landing regiment in the first months of the war.

In the Pskov region, an increase of 2.6 times was recorded. This is a reflection of the losses of the paratroopers. And an indicator of how much the threat to NATO has decreased.

Losses from the Primorsky Krai increased 4.4 times. Sakhalin losses are 4.14. Most of them are marines, whom the Russian command buried in the Ukrainian steppes.

 

It is not for nothing that material is currently circulating on the Internet about the losses of the 155th Marine Brigade of the Primorsky Krai. The result is a significant reduction in risk for Japan and South Korea.

 

In absolute numbers, the losses of Sakhalin and Primorje can be compared, but in relative numbers, Sakhalin has 3.6 times more losses.

It is interesting to compare the figures of losses from regions with the same number of inhabitants. For example, the number of victims in Karelia is 4.2 times higher than in Ingushetia. It is clear who is more valuable to the Russian Federation.

Yakutia, Transbaikalia and Buryatia have comparable populations - just under a million in each region. At the same time, losses from Buryatia are three times higher than in Yakutia, and 27 percent higher than in Transbaikalia. First of all, it is a marker of the place of permanent troop deployment.

If you look at the picture in general, there are indications where the Kremlin still has a lot of reservations, and where nuances have already appeared. This allows for the assessment of the safety margin and the setting of priorities for work with the regions of the Russian Federation.