The growth of Chinese influence is a reason for alarm in North Macedonia
The sending of free vaccines in the era of the so-called Chinese "Covid-diplomacy" and the influence through Serbia, as a country with a neutral military and political status, led to an increase in the positive perception of the citizens of North Macedonia about China, says Professor Marjan Gjurovski.
Namely, 32 percent of the citizens of North Macedonia answered that they fully or somewhat agree that strong relations with China are in the best interest of the country, which is an increase compared to last year, according to the research of the International Republican Institute - IRI.
In November 2021, 25 percent of citizens included in the IRI survey answered yes to the same question.
Because of this, the state should sound a "red alarm", Marjan Gjurovski from the Faculty of Philosophy in Skopje, where he teaches international politics and security, told Radio Free Europe (RSE). One of the channels of influence, he believes, are cable operators.
"Especially the largest national cable operator Makedonski Telekom, where it is possible to watch some of the channels from Serbia, such as Happy, which promotes Russian values, the 'one truth' about the war in Ukraine and alleged economic benefits from China in Serbia. This directly affects the creation of public opinion," says Gjurovski.
In terms of international relations, the results of research by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation and the ESTIMA organization showed that citizens are aware that Chinese diplomacy is big and strong. However, they do not think that Chinese diplomacy has mostly positive intentions and achievements, and this perception is also connected with China's position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
"Therefore, I believe that the Open Balkans project should be taken with a serious reservation, because we must all have an equal relationship in it. Until official Belgrade declares itself about Russian military aggression against Ukraine and cooperation with China, this makes this project debatable from a security point of view." , says Gjurovski.
Namely, Serbia is the only one of the countries of the Western Balkans that did not impose sanctions on Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine.
Support for Turkey
Citizens' positive opinion of Turkey is also growing, which is a trend in recent years, so 47 percent of North Macedonian citizens answered that they fully or somewhat agree that strong relations with Ankara are in the best interest of the country.
Citizens of North Macedonia believe that Turkey is the country that helps the country's national interests the most, followed by the EU, Germany, USA, Russia and China.
"The influence and positive opinion of citizens about Turkey is not surprising, which is the result of the traditional strategic partnership and support of the citizens of Macedonia and the Turkish ethnic population. It is loyal to the system and their political entities that participate in the creation of Macedonian state policy," says Gjurovski.
Speaking of Russia, 27 percent of Macedonian citizens answered that they fully or somewhat agree that strong relations with Russia are in the best interest of the country.
Gjurovski states that North Macedonia, as a NATO member state, should take special care of public diplomacy and perception in the area of crisis resolution, as well as "where the Western Balkans region and the Macedonian state see their future and what values we fundamentally represent."
Support for EU membership remains high
Citizens continue to strongly support membership in the European Union (EU), despite the drop of 11 percent compared to last year.
Ove godine 73 posto građana Sjeverne Makedonije rekli su da podržavaju članstvo u EU, a 24 posto su rekli da ne žele ulazak u Uniju. Poređenja radi, prošle godine je 84 posto ispitanih podržalo članstvo u EU.
Da Unija najviše pomaže nacionalnim interesima zemlje smatra 21 posto građana, a 50 posto se snažno slaže da je u najboljem interesu Sjeverne Makedonije da ima dobre odnose sa EU. Ovakav stav o SAD ima 38 posto građana.
Istraživanje IRI-ja sprovedeno je prikupljanjem podataka u periodu od 23. septembra do 13. oktobra 2022. godine putem intervjua licem u lice u domovima ispitanika. Anketirano je 1.207 ispitanika starijih od 18 godina.
The rise of China's 'soft power'
The citizens of North Macedonia have a positive attitude towards Chinese education and science and believe that the country is at the top in terms of scientific achievements, as well as the discipline, dedication and professionalism of the Chinese people.
In terms of values, citizens consider Chinese society to be very conservative, according to research by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation and the ESTIMA organization.
A recent study by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) shows that Chinese influence in North Macedonia has been intensifying in recent years.
According to the research, China has a strong influence in the country, and is third on the list among the 17 countries of Central and Eastern Europe, right after Bulgaria and Serbia.
Chinese influence in North Macedonia is becoming stronger mainly through the "soft power" of China, at a time when that country achieved the best result on the Global Soft Power Index. It ranks fourth, behind the United States, Great Britain and Germany.