"Swap Places" As Europe Prepares for NATO War with Russia

 

NATO is conducting its biggest exercise since the Cold War, Stadfast Defender 2024: by May, 90,000 soldiers will work out a scenario for an attack on Russia. The head of NATO's military committee, Rob Bauer, called on civilians to be prepared for a conflict with the Russian Federation.

More and more European political leaders directly declare that Russia represents an immediate threat to them.

"After all the political talk about 'fatigue' and 'negotiations' before Christmas, the pendulum has swung back," Dr. Karsten Friis, Head of the Security and Defense Research Group at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI).

Now the Baltic and Scandinavian countries are the "eastern front" in the path of the old threat, adds to LIGA.net the professor of military strategy at the Swedish Defense University, Lt. Col. Joakim Paasikivy.

"NATO was created to contain the Soviet Union. We are returning to the same threat under a different name - Russia."

Is Europe really "waking up" to the fact that NATO can (or can't) confront Russian forces and how will all this affect support for Ukraine?

 

"Alarm clock" for Europe

 

It seems that the political and military leaders of the EU and NATO have agreed on their messages about the threat posed by Russia in early 2024, Sven Biskop, an analyst at the Royal Brussels Institute for International Relations "Egmond", tells LIGA.net:

"I assess that it strengthens the political, financial and public determination to invest in defense," says Bishop.

Most European leaders really see Russia as the main threat to European security, but for different countries this "alarm" rang at different times, Ivo Juurvee from the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) from Estonia adds to LIGA.net.

 

In Estonia, according to him, this happened after riots and cyber attacks in 2007, which happened with the support of Russia. Some countries "woke up" after the Russian aggression against Georgia in 2008. Many - only after the attack on Crimea or even later - after February 2022.

"But until 2022, it was still possible to assume that Russia could hold back because of the large number of casualties," adds Juurvee.

Even the Soviet Union was sensitive to its losses during the war in Afghanistan. Today's Russia apparently does not pay attention to them.

It also became clear that the sanctions, while having some effect, had not destroyed the Russian economy, nor Russia's desire to continue the war.

"There is a growing realization in Europe that Russia is a constant security threat and is unlikely to disappear in the foreseeable future. As, for example, happened with the threat of ISIS after several years of countermeasures," suggests Juurvee.

The position of the West is influenced by several factors at once, former foreign minister Pavel Klymkin adds for LIGA.net.

First, at the level of the army and representatives of the security sector, there is a realization that there are no formal or informal red lines.

Second, there is a growing understanding in Europe that anything can happen in the United States - Trump, not Trump. At some point, Europe must take on much greater responsibility, says Klymkin.

"Europe is not ready for this. But I don't rule it out, it will be necessary to be ready," says Klymkin.

Third, all this is happening against a very nervous, often populist political background in the EU, says the former head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. But there is a sense among politicians and parts of the military community that the stakes could one day be raised.

At the same time, the Baltic and Scandinavian countries are much more serious about the Russian threat:

"Northern Europe is now playing the role that Central Europe used to play. They have even changed their roles in a way," he is convinced.

 

What will happen if the Kremlin decides to attack NATO

 

Currently, there is little possibility that Russia will attack one of the NATO countries, according to Norwegian analyst Friis.

However, Russia's relentless influence campaigns, espionage and digital attacks will continue and will likely intensify as election cycles begin in the West.

 

"The risk of Russian aggression is small, because Russia has tied up its maneuver units in Ukraine," agrees Juurvee.

So, a lot depends on how the war in Ukraine will end and in what condition the Russian military forces will be then.

"Even 25 percent of the forces mobilized by Russia against Ukraine would pose a threat if they were deployed on the border with a NATO country. Therefore, we are preparing for that every day," says Juurvee.

Now everything produced by the Russian military-industrial complex is consumed in Ukraine, agrees Paasikivy.

"If the situation in Ukraine worsens, the Russians will be able to increase their armed forces and get some surplus military equipment. And then it will become a real threat," adds the lieutenant colonel of the Swedish army.

The only question is when they will be able to attack.

"Estonians say: three to five years. German analytical centers say six to 10 years," says the lieutenant colonel. "But the problem is not when the Russians will be ready. The problem is when we will be ready."

The saddest thing about the state of the European armed forces, in his opinion, is the acute lack of defense capabilities that need to be increased in order to "be ready before the Russians".

When/if Russia decides to attack one of the NATO countries, it will inevitably lose, all surveyed experts agree.

"NATO is much stronger when it comes to conventional weapons. Even if we spent a lot of ammunition in Ukraine, the technological advantage remains on NATO's side," assures Friis.

The risk lies in the potential for nuclear escalation in such a scenario, adds an analyst from the Norwegian Institute of International Relations. No one wants that, but in dramatic circumstances the situation often develops with its own dynamics from which it is difficult to escape.

"If you compare the overall military potential of NATO and Russia, there is no doubt that NATO is many times superior. One can question whether Russia will be able to create a local and temporary advantage in any particular region," agrees Juurvee.

Or the Russians will manage to tear the Alliance apart, adds Paasikivy:

 

"What will happen after January 2025 with the new American president? And with Mr. Orban and Mr. Fitz, the repetition of Putin in the European Union and NATO? So the question is, will we be united or not".

 

"There is no cohesion - then there is no Article 5. If the Russians are fighting against individual European countries or a group of countries, they will obviously have a better chance than if they are fighting against the US-backed Alliance," explains Paasikivy.

Splitting scenarios can be different. One option is for the Russians to start putting pressure on the Svalbard islands in the Arctic.

"These islands are Norwegian, but they are demilitarized," explains Paasikivy. "If the Russians do something in Svalbard, it's a problem for those interested in the Arctic: the United States, Canada, Great Britain, Norway, the Scandinavian countries. But will it be a problem for Turkey, Montenegro or the rest of the Alliance?"

"Go hand in hand." How the increase in own defense capability will affect the support of Ukraine.

 

The development of Europe's own defense will not affect the support of Ukraine by its partners, Brussels analyst Biskop is convinced.

"They go hand in hand," Bishop explains.

"I don't see a conflict between strengthening our national defense and supporting Ukraine. When, for example, the government gives money to NAMMO to increase the production of artillery shells, it benefits Norway, Ukraine and NATO," adds Friis.

According to him, by 2026 Norway's defense spending should reach two percent of GDP. An additional increase is expected after the new long-term plan, which the government is currently working on.

Estonia is accelerating the pace of strengthening its own military - it now spends about three percent of GDP annually. At the same time, the country is still finding the means to allocate one percent of GDP to support Ukraine.

"Of course, this is a heavy burden on our taxpayers," Juurvee admits, but no cuts to the defense budget have been proposed.

Sweden, too, is working to strengthen its military potential. But, as Paasikivy says, the country's defense capabilities are a military bonsai.

 "Looks good. It's well preserved. But it's very small."

 

Sweden's support for Ukraine will be small, but still stable, he assures: "As long as Ukraine fights for survival, independence and freedom, Russia is less of a threat to us. If we let Ukraine die, we will have to fight alone."