Shoigu line. Why is Russia building fortifications in Crimea?

 

This geolocation has already led to derisive comments on social networks. They say, to which front does Sergei Shoigu actually fly! In fact, he flies over Crimea!

However, I'm sure flying over Crimea is no walk in the park for the Russian Defense Minister. After all, fortifications are now being created in the Crimea, precisely in the same district of Armenia. And yes, these fortifications were inspected by Sergej Shoigu from a helicopter. So I wouldn't be ironic about this flight. Shoigu's trip appears to show that Russian authorities are indeed preparing to defend Crimea from advancing Ukrainian troops.

 

At first glance, such creation of the "Shoigu Line" may look like reinsurance. So far, neither the entire Kherson region nor the entire Zaporozhye region has been liberated - and without that liberation, it is hardly worth counting on the offensive of the Ukrainian army in Crimea. But I think that the head of the Russian military department should show the President of Russia Vladimir Putin his zeal for the protection of Crimea. After all, for the Russian president, all the occupied territories of Ukraine in 2014-2022. are rather a bonus to Crimea. But Crimea itself is the very "sacred" that made it possible to get the support of the vast majority of Russians and start the creation of a "post-Crimean" Russia - a frankly authoritarian, and now, after the attack on Ukraine, a frankly totalitarian state. Therefore, for Putin, it is not only the control over Crimea that is important, but also the model of Russia that was created after the occupation of the peninsula.

But does it make sense to build fortifications that should protect Crimea from a possible Ukrainian offensive? From the official point of view, from the point of view of demonstrating loyalty to the "master", of course, it exists. And Šojgu, as is known, is an official, not a commander.

And from a military point of view, the need for such fortifications is very questionable. As I said before, the operation to liberate Crimea cannot be carried out alone. The minimum conditions for such an operation are the liberation of the entire south of Ukraine, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. This is the return of control over Kahovka, Melitopolje, Energodar. It is about destroying the land corridor from Russia to Crimea, the creation of which was one of the tactical goals of Vladimir Putin's "special operation" against Ukraine.

 

But all this will probably mean the defeat of the Russian army. If the armed forces of Ukraine succeed in liberating the south, this, I am sure, cannot but lead to such a defeat, to the complete demoralization of the Russian army and society as a whole. This does not mean that Vladimir Putin will automatically lose power. But it means that the Russian president may look differently at the political and military situation that will develop as a result of the failure of his Ukrainian "special operation".

Yes, it is clear that in this situation Putin can again insist on the "red lines", on the "territorial integrity of Russia", on the fact that this "territorial integrity" includes Crimea, and if the loss of the south of Ukraine and the Donbas can still be turned a blind eye , then the liberation of Crimea is a direct path to a nuclear strike. But it is not necessary to build fortifications only for a nuclear attack.

Therefore, in fact, Russia should not only protect Crimea at all, but all its other territorial "acquisitions". If the Ukrainian army succeeds in liberating the south of Ukraine and begins to liberate the Donbas from Russian troops and their mercenaries, if the Russian army and Ukrainian collaborators suffer a general defeat, the issue of liberating Crimea from the invaders may no longer be a military issue, but a political issue. We will be dealing with a weakened Russia, for which it will be important to end the war, and not to try to continue military operations in a situation that is inherently unfavorable. But, I repeat, only in this case. If Russia is entrenched in the south of Ukraine, then the Russian occupation of Crimea in the foreseeable future, I think, will not change anything.

But even in this situation, it seems that "Shoigu's line" is only needed by Shoigu himself. And Putin, who will see how reliably Crimea is protected from the Ukrainians and how hard his faithful defense minister is trying. Although if I were Putin, I wouldn't worry about Crimea at all.