Sanctions and Russia. "Anushka" has already spilled the oil

 

They said that an oil spill occurred during routine work on the power unit of the Portova Gasovoda station Sjeverni tok — 1. Therefore, Gazprom announced that it will stop the work for an indefinite period, with the explanation that it is impossible to repair it due to Western sanctions against Russia.

Moscow is resorting to the obvious gas blackmail of the European Union. She issues an ultimatum — either lift the sanctions or there will be no gas.

 

Sanctions produce results

 

At the beginning of September, the Bloomberg agency published the data of a closed report on the true state of the Russian economy. A secret report was prepared for the Russian government, which shows the extremely negative impact of Western sanctions imposed on the Russian economy due to the invasion of Ukraine. The prognosis is very disappointing, I would say catastrophic.

 

A hard winter awaits Russia. And then two or even three years of deep recession, with an annual economic decline of more than 11 percent. Therefore, even by 2030, the Russian economy will not reach the pre-war level. Nothing like this has happened in Russia since the collapse of the USSR.

Today, the Russian Federation is already feeling the cumulative effect of the sanctions. During more than 200 days of the great war, the coalition of states led by the USA (a kind of Ramstein sanctions) has already introduced seven packages of sanctions against Russia. And the eighth is currently being considered and prepared.

Instead, they become extremely nervous in the Russian Federation and resort to the strategy of internal unrest in European countries, terror in the Zaporizhzhya nuclear plant, and already open gas blackmail.

 

The masks have fallen

 

Russian rhetoric is more or less unambiguous and predictable - lies plus blackmail. Pro-Russian forces have gathered across the EU. We are watching how pro-Russian canned goods are opened in one or another European country. Demonstrations are being organized demanding the lifting of sanctions and an understanding of the prices of gas and energy, and thus the increase in the prices of consumer goods.

All this is moderated by the Kremlin. Similar actions and statements are actively rebroadcast on all three main federal propaganda channels of the Russian Federation. Look, say the Russian propagandists, the Europeans are finally enlightened and are demanding that our sanctions be lifted.

Although in reality the prices are not rising because of Western sanctions against Russia, but because of Russian gas blackmail of Europe.

 

Why is the aggressor state so worried?

 

The answer lies in those sanctions that have already been introduced, as well as in monitoring their negative impact on the Russian economy. Such a document is prepared every two weeks by the Kyiv School of Economics for the Jermak-McFaul international working group for the strengthening of sanctions against the Russian Federation.

 

We remind you that this working group was created at the initiative of the president and is the main expert platform for creating a list and order of sanctions against Russia for a major attack on our country. The group includes leading international and Ukrainian experts. The group's action plan for anti-Russian sanctions includes oil and gas, transportation, financial, individual sanctions, as well as sanctions against large Russian state monopoly companies.

 

In addition, the sanctions provide for strict control and maximum limitation of high-tech exports from developed countries to Russia, including dual-use technologies that can be used for the production of weapons or military equipment.

 

According to this action plan, the sanctions will also cover countries that cooperate with Russia in the sanctioned sectors or with the sanctioned nomenclature of goods and services - these are so-called secondary sanctions. And the countries and businesses that will cooperate with the Russian Federation in the sectors and areas that are still allowed, must submit all documents to the competent authorities.

It is important that the Plan envisages deepening the coordination of the implementation of sanctions between countries at each stage of its implementation.

Due to the entire package of sanctions in the oil and gas sector - and soon there will be an embargo on Russian oil - after the ban on the import of Russian coal from August 1 to the EU and from August 10 to Great Britain, the export of Russian coal by sea actually stopped.

 

The sanctions that came into force prohibit EU operators from securing coal supplies, preventing their diversion to China and India, where coal is otherwise in high demand.

In addition, an agreement was reached, especially within the G-7, to limit the price of Russian oil. We can say that the civilized world has decided to stand firm on sanctions, implement this price cap and deny Russia revenues from oil and gas.

And we are already watching the price of oil start to fall.

In the financial sector, sanctions were imposed on a number of Russian banks from the TOP-30, state-owned Russian and Belarusian companies.

The assets of the top management of the Russian Federation, high-ranking officials and their relatives were also frozen. The purchase of Russian securities, even on the secondary market, is prohibited worldwide.

Switzerland has expanded the scope of the ban on receiving deposits from Russia, both for individuals and legal entities. Australia has announced its intention to ban the import of Russian gold, which the US, EU, Canada and the UK have already done.

 

As for individual sanctions, the list already includes about a thousand Russian officials of the highest level, and it starts with 13 high-ranking officials and their relatives, among whom is Alina Kabaeva - Putin's lover.

Regarding secondary sanctions, US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo warned Turkish companies that they risk being hit by US sanctions if they do business with sanctioned Russian individuals.

In addition, many global oil traders and banks have terminated cooperation with the Indian oil refining company Nayara Energy, a branch of Rosneft.

Among the transport sanctions is the ban on access of Russian ships to EU and US ports. Norway continued the existing ban on access to its ports.

Regarding the export of high technologies to Russia, the USA has issued new licensing conditions for the export of computer microcircuits not only to Russia, but also to China (including Hong Kong).

Norway has banned four organizations from exporting dual-use goods and technologies, expanded the list of goods and technologies prohibited for export to the Russian Federation, which can contribute to the military and technological strengthening of the aggressor state.

These are the main lines of sanctions that the Jermak-McFaul group recommended to be imposed against Russia and which have been implemented. There is simply no physical possibility or need to list the entire list and the intensity of the impact of these sanctions on Russia.

The effect of sanctions

 

The result of the sanctions is already quite tangible and painful. The Russian Ministry of Finance recently reported the largest drop in Russian budget revenues in the last 11 years. In July, the Russian budget fell by 26 percent on an annual basis. Revenues from oil and gas taxes fell by 22 percent, and non-oil and gas by 29 percent. VAT collection was reduced by 40 percent, and income tax by 32 percent.

According to the results from July, the current deficit is equal to 33 percent of the monthly budget of the Russian Federation. All these are visible evidences that the sanctions imposed against Russia are working quite well.

In addition, for the first time in more than 20 years of Putin's rule in the Russian Federation, the popularity rating of the federal channels has declined. That is, the refrigerator of the Russian citizen, which began to be emptied, began step by step to win its positions on television that is full of propaganda.

 

 

That's why the Kremlin is now hysterical. That is why the Kremlin resorts to the most brutal blackmail, behaving like a terrorist. Among the proposals is a section on recognizing the Russian Federation as a state sponsor of terrorism.

This has already been done by the parliaments of Lithuania and Latvia, for which we are grateful to these brave countries that border the Russian Federation and are under constant threat.

But the key decision and leadership is the USA. There is a rather difficult and substantial discussion going on there. The resolution recognizing Russia as a sponsor of terrorism was adopted by the US Senate, and this issue is also being considered in Congress.

The State Department has been silent on this issue for about a month and a half. US President Joe Biden broke his silence. He stated that Russia should not be recognized as a state sponsor of terrorism. White House spokeswoman Karin-Jean-Pierre followed the arguments in support of the American president's position.

But despite that, on Wednesday, August 14, US Senators Richard Blumenthal (Democratic Party) and Lindsey Graham (Republican Party) presented another bill on recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.

 

Unlike the resolution previously passed by the Senate, which was a recommendation, the new bill, if passed, would require President Biden's administration to recognize the Russian Federation as a state sponsor of terrorism. Thus, if the decision is adopted, the Russian Federation will receive the appropriate status and join Cuba, North Korea, Iran and Syria.

Later, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said at a briefing that US President Biden's administration is talking to Congress about the possibility of imposing such sanctions on Russia that would be similar to declaring the state a sponsor of terrorism.

While a harsh but rather productive discussion is taking place in the US, we are witnessing a radical change in the attitudes of many countries.

If at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, some EU countries took a position of waiting and refraining from anti-Russian economic sanctions, and even more so from supplying Ukraine with weapons, now they have stopped waiting.

If Russia does not provide gas, then Germany will not shut down its nuclear power plants in the winter. This will happen despite the fact that Germany's energy strategy for decades envisaged a complete rejection of nuclear energy.

Moreover, German gas storages are 82 percent full, and the German government has allocated 60 billion euros in aid to households and businesses to help with rising gas prices.

However, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, made the biggest impression, who the other day gave a speech on the state of the Union in the European Parliament and announced a strategy to combat Russian aggression and blackmail with gas. She noted that Russia launched this war not only against Ukraine, but also "against our energy industry, against our economy, against our values."

Ursula von der Leyen called Russia's behavior a war against Europe's future. The President emphasized that the EU will support small businesses and change the rules of the game for companies on the energy market. More precisely, she announced a deep reform of the energy sector, which, according to the European Commission, has ceased to be a market. After all, due to the increase in gas prices, electricity bills for European companies have increased several times, sometimes 10 times, and the European Commission plans to intervene in the formation of prices.+

Also, according to her, the European Commission has a plan for additional taxation of those energy companies that make excess profits — and this will enable an additional 15 billion euros to be collected. It will not be a surprise if such companies, by a "strange" combination of circumstances, have end users residing in Moscow or St. Petersburg.

 

So, in this story, Anushka-Gasprom-Kremlin-Putin, for the completeness of their historical myth about Moscow as the Third Rome and the first capital of their hybrid half-empire, they only needed to sprinkle oil or olive oil on their heads, declaring themselves the emperor of all emperors . But it will definitely not be easier for the Russian economy, which is flying into the abyss.

 

Or simply start and end the war against Ukraine, go outside the internationally recognized state borders of Ukraine, appear before international courts and pay compensation for the damage caused. And don't stick your imperial nose at us ever again.

While a sharp, but, in my opinion, quite productive discussion is taking place in the USA, I want to remind you that we have already witnessed a radical change in the attitudes of many countries.

If at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, some EU countries took a position of waiting and refraining from anti-Russian economic sanctions, and even more so from supplying Ukraine with weapons, now they often play a waiting game.