Russia's War Against the World: Will Ukraine Become a Decisive Front?

"Russia's economy works more intensively for the war than the stronger and more stable economy of the USSR"

The demonstrative launch of a Russian ballistic missile carrier over Ukraine, the
relevant warnings from the US embassy the day before, the return of nuclear
rhetoric to the delusions of demagogues from the Kremlin, evoke memories of
social science studies.

The text is a little long, but the conclusions and proposals require detailed explanations. To look to the future, we need to understand the context.

Theory and practice of games

Game theory gained popularity in the middle of the last century. After all, a whole
series of theories and applied explanations, which are designed to describe,
and even better to predict the behavior of actors, especially in international
relations.

Many have heard of the "prisoner's dilemma", when a rational, selfish
choice leads to harmful consequences. Also popular is the "game",
which is often used to describe the crisis in the Caribbean. The associative
description of the game is to find out which of two drivers racing towards each
other will turn first.

Khrushchev is thought to have been the first to deviate during the Caribbean crisis. For Putin, it has become one of the points: he wants to "play through"
not only the Cold War and the collapse of the USSR, but also the Caribbean
crisis and "détente". He considers himself cooler than the Soviet
party bonzos - and tries to show that he will not be refused.

How dangerous can it be?

 Nuclear blackmail has always been in Russia's
arsenal of aggression. In 2022, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine pushed the
Russians out of Kiev, Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv and launched an offensive in
the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, the Kremlin threatened nuclear retaliation so
convincingly that then-British Prime Minister Liz Truss (if the British media
is to be believed) even also dealt with the paths of radioactive fallout.

But then the difficult position of the nuclear powers worked. And not only the USA, France and Great Britain, which, according to experts' assumptions, warned of devastating conventional retaliation. But so did China and India, which warned of the prospect of total isolation for Russia and even agreed to include in G20 summit documents the unacceptability of the use of nuclear weapons and the threat of such use.

In two years, the intensity of nuclear blackmail has been significantly reduced.
Experts have even spoken of a "boiling the frog" scenario: weakening
Russia so much that if Putin decides to use nuclear weapons, the system would
not be able to do so. Whether due to technological or human factors. As it was during the collapse of the USSR.

But the temperature of the sanctions proved insufficient to reach this level of
degradation already in 2024.

However, the Russian leadership, imposing the "long war" on the world, fell
into a trap that seemed to have emerged from illustrations in game theory
textbooks.

An ear of corn on clay tracks

The economy of Russia works "for the war" more intensively than the morep owerful and stable economy of the USSR. Losses of a thousand soldiers a day place very high demands, even in the face of a system of fear that forces them

to "cannon fodder attacks". Time is not working against Russia yet -
it will simply run out of time in Russia. Therefore, Ukraine and its allies
should bet on complete exhaustion and desperation.The creeping "bulldozer
tactics".

The Kremlin is not interested in a Korean or Finnish-style truce, where the West
agrees to occupy the currently occupied Ukraine, but does not allow the rest to
be taken over.

After all, Putin said it directly at the Valdai Forum. After all, in his irrational
world, he did not come because of Donbass, Crimea and the land corridor. He revives the empire. And a "freeze" with effective guarantees of aid to Ukraine would mean the end of these dreams. How the Minsk agreements stopped
the 2014-15 blitzkrieg.

Therefore, neither Trump, nor even Xi yet have arguments that would outweigh the loss of the meaning of his existence for Putin.

Therefore, the question should not be asked "how to stop the war", but "how
to stop Russia".

"Coward's Bulldozer"

To stop the bulldozer, you must crush its mechanism and deprive it of fuel and
lubricant. This means new opportunities for Ukraine on the battlefield and
tougher sanctions against the Russian economy.

The Kremlin understands that. Therefore, they react nervously to all signs of
increased aid to Ukraine from the West. Therefore, the nuclear threat was
brought out of the drawer again. The nuclear doctrine has been rewritten. They
threaten with their "miracle" ballistics (somewhere towards the part
of Ukraine that is not covered by Western air defense - because these systems
were developed specifically to fight against large cans).

In terms of game theory, Putin got behind the wheel of the "chicken
mobile" and drove into the oncoming lane. Where will it lead?

Until now, Western governments operate in the paradigm of avoiding nuclear
escalation. Therefore, the statements that at least three times only the lack
of resources prevented Ukraine from achieving a decisive advantage, if not
victory, are not devoid of meaning.

 At the same time, the risk assessment of escalation is accepted by people who still operate within the logic of the
"Cold War" era. Thus, the West is restrained by self-restraint, which
arises from the reluctance to get involved in the conflict and the transition
from "supporting Ukraine" (with what can be given) to "defeating
Russia" (with correspondingly ambitious goals and many times higher tasks
for the economy, military industry and sector defense and security).

It turns out that Russia and its authoritarian allies are a level higher in the
escalation of the conflict than the West. Moreover, one of the fields of
conflict is the Russian attack on Western societies, their morals and values
​​through the support of populist movements, which have become the
"disgusting crocodile" of the modern political landscape,
significantly reducing the quality of public administration and politics in
which they win - and diverting forces and resources where there is still a
heavier power.

In a game theory analogy, Putin hits the gas – and the faces try to avoid him. In
the KGB, Putin was taught to exploit the "weaknesses of the democratic
system". He uses it.

In Western countries, Russians are trying to impose zugcwang, a choice between
"bad" and "even worse." They are trying to link aid to
Ukraine and pressure on Russia to the alleged "increasing danger to
Western countries". They form a virus of opinion about "peace"
at the price of giving Ukraine into "Russia's sphere of influence".
However, such a path creates even worse threats to the world and makes
escalation inevitable.

Itis not for nothing that the threat of using nuclear weapons is classified as a
separate type of impermissible act. After all, if nuclear blackmail becomes the
norm, the rational move for all countries capable of acquiring nuclear weapons
is to do so. Accordingly, the risk of using this weapon, its use by terrorists,
various accidents, leaks, etc. increases. It also nullifies the political
weight of the alliance and the reputation of Western countries and the
"civilized approach" as such, which is based on "refusal to use
force or the threat of such use". The world is returning to the chaos of
the "rights of the strong", and in the future Western countries will
have to fight - in full or hybrid form - just for existence, place and role in
the world.

There is a serious problem with these statements, although quite logical. Their
conclusion is the need for a significant change in behavior, priorities and
policies of Western countries. Getting out of the comfort zone, revitalizing
the defense-industrial complexes, increasing defense expenditures in the GDP
and budget structure.

The motivation for such changes may be precisely the development of the situation
in Ukraine. When, instead of the Russian-inspired feeling of Russian
"invulnerability" and "promiscuity" of resistance, will the
understanding of the reality of victory as stopping the aggressor be formed.
The "bulldozer" of Russian aggression may not turn around - but it
will stop.

This forms quite concrete conclusions and tasks for Ukraine.

Unity as a need for survival

In 2021-2022. year, the general expectation in the world was the decline and

disappearance of Ukraine. The Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukrainian society
surprised the world. This surprise was enough for system help.

But that wasn't enough to stop the bulldozer. Because of this, fatigue accumulates,
which needs a "new miracle" to overcome.

And now the "miracle" must be shown by the Ukrainian political class.

Gathering, unifying and responding to threats to the country. By breaking the chain of
"doom" that Russia is twisting, forming a feeling of "futility
of effort".

The situation in Ukraine shows that the methods used by the current government no
longer work. The system of making and implementing decisions has exhausted
itself and does not provide adequate answers to the challenges of the
situation.

A government of national unity does not mean satisfying the ambitions of
politicians. It is a tool for coordinating actions and optimal use of resources
available in society. Ukraine can no longer have children on the principle of
"pianist plays as he can". The possibilities of "victory not
thanks to, but in spite of" have been exhausted - because the enemy
prevails in resources, and the allies need additional motivation to secure
additional resources.

Therefore, Ukraine can win only by ensuring unity not at the level of slogans and
"marathons", but in determining the optimal political and management
decisions and directing resources to their implementation.

This is the only way to a scenario where Putin and his accomplices will play a
"prisoner's dilemma" in The Hague, betraying each other. Other
scenarios are sad for the world and deadly for Ukraine.