Russia's political war in the Balkans: How Putin is using Vučić and Dodik to undermine the region

 

The analysis was written for the Foreign Policy Research Institute by Ivana Stradner, who studies Russian security strategies and military doctrines as well as Russian influence in international organizations.

 

Unlike the brutal territorial conquest and destruction in Ukraine, Russia's methods in Southeast Europe are more subtle, Stradner says, and use information and psychological warfare techniques instead of traditional military power.

 

In addition to "provocative moves by Serbia," which she describes as Russia's main ally in the region, the author also looks at Milorad Dodik's moves toward secession of the Republika Srpska entity from Bosnia and Herzegovina.

 

Dodik, who is the president of Republika Srpska, passed a series of laws in 2023 that would have removed Republika Srpska from the state judiciary, tax system and armed forces of BiH. In 2024, he went further, proposing a referendum on the independence of the RS entity from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Dodik's efforts to undermine Bosnia and Herzegovina. brought the country into conflict with the high representative, who declared the laws unconstitutional. Although he has now been convicted of violating the constitution and banned from politics for six years, Dodik is only redoubling his efforts. Republika Srpska recently proposed legislation to withdraw from the court that found Dodik guilty," he points out.

 

Stradner further states that Dodik continues to have close support from Vučić, who called the conviction "shameful" and "illegal", and from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has close ties with Republika Srpska.

 

Putin has met with Dodik several times since the invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Dodik's verdict "a purely politically motivated move targeting Dodik personally and all patriotic forces of Serbia, which is unacceptable". The Russian Foreign Ministry announced that Russia was trying to "neutralize threats to interethnic dialogue, peace and stability" in the Balkans. Dodik's secessionist aspirations were supported by Russian nationalist philosopher Aleksandr Dugin, who stressed that Dodik "has been attacked and there is no other solution than joining Serbia.

Stradner also recalls the meetings between the leaders of Bosnian Serbs and the Russian president.

 

Namely, Putin and Dodik met in Kazan, Russia, in February 2024. During that meeting, Dodik stated that he was "trying to discourage any possibility of [Bosnia and Herzegovina] joining the sanctions against Russia". After their meeting, Putin awarded Dodik the Order of Alexander Nevsky for his "contribution to the development of cooperation between the Russian Federation and Bosnia and Herzegovina and to strengthening the partnership with Republika Srpska". At a second meeting, Putin told Dodik: "We [Russia] are grateful to you for what you are doing in the spiritual sphere and for supporting our ties through the ministries of foreign affairs". Russia is providing Dodik with valuable political and diplomatic protection in exchange for his continued service in disrupting the fragile political settlement in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the author of the analysis believes.

 

Political Objectives of Russian Political Warfare in the Balkans

"Russia has several objectives for interfering in the Western Balkans. First, if Russia can cause chaos on the southeastern edge of Europe, it can likely help to reverse or resolve any such conflict. This gives Russia an advantage over the West: if Russian cooperation is essential to mediating conflicts in the Balkans, Putin can demand concessions from NATO, perhaps on Ukraine, in exchange for calming tensions in the Balkans. The threat of conflict in the Balkans also increases tensions in the already tense NATO alliance. There are already divisions among allies over how to respond to the war in Ukraine and how much support to give to Kiev. Another conflict, even closer to the heart of Europe, would make cooperation within NATO even more challenging, especially if it involved Kosovo, given that several NATO countries do not recognize Kosovo's independence," warns Stradner.

 

In addition, he continues, Russia also sees the Western Balkans as a means to complicate the narrative around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Russia points to the Western support that led to Kosovo’s independence as an excuse for occupying Ukrainian territories.

 

“Instability in the Western Balkans presents a win-win scenario. If the status quo persists, NATO and the European Union will be unable to stop the chaos and instability there and will appear powerless and unscrupulous. If forced to bring Russia to the negotiating table, Putin will use the region to make concessions elsewhere. Alternatively, if a hot war breaks out and NATO responds to the challenge by successfully intervening against Serbia or its proxies, this would still represent a serious distraction from defending Ukraine and would benefit Russia’s military position there,” Stradner concludes.

 

Information Warfare: Media and Religion Manipulation

Russian involvement in the Western Balkans is not backed by traditional military force. There is no occupying army; no territorial claims. Instead, Russia uses the information space as a means of manipulation, the author explains.

Serbia, she recalls, has welcomed Russian media into its airwaves. Not only do Russian state media outlets Sputnik and RT operate in the country, but Serbian media outlets have also picked up and spread many of their claims, including disinformation that Ukraine attacked Russia in 2022, as well as conspiracy theories about American "biological laboratories" in Serbia. Russia also operates through social media platforms, especially Telegram.

 

"These narratives are particularly useful for Vučić's government as it faces one of the largest anti-government and anti-corruption protest movements in the history of Serbia," he points out, noting that pro-government media consistently seek to demonize demonstrators as foreign agents and imply that they are working on the orders of Western powers.

 

Russia, Stradner points out, has repeatedly spread rumors, backed up by Serbian authorities, that Western powers are planning to stage a "color revolution" or a "Maidan-style coup" in Serbia, referring to a broader conspiracy theory that US influence was responsible for pro-democracy movements in Ukraine in 2004 and 2014.

 

"Russian information operations find fertile ground in Serbia because Russian interests fundamentally coincide with those of Vučić and his right-wing nationalist supporters, including the Serbian Orthodox Church. High on the agenda of Serbian nationalists is the return of Kosovo, home to ancient Orthodox monasteries and the site of the Battle of Kosovo in 1389, a founding moment in Serbian national myth. Many Serbian nationalists echo the Russian concept of a 'Russian Peace' with a 'Serbian Peace' (Serbian World), which would unite all Serb-populated areas in Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and other neighboring states," the text states.

 

The Church’s Influence

All things considered, Stradner continues, it is not surprising that the Serbian Orthodox Church plays a central role in Russian information operations in the Balkans.

 

“Since the 1990s, it has provided justification for Serbian nationalist violence across the former Yugoslavia and retains significant power in the Western Balkans. In April, the Patriarch of the Serbian Orthodox Church, Porfirije, visited Moscow, meeting with Putin and the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church, Kirill. The leaders praised each other for their commitment to traditional values that the West has allegedly abandoned. Porfirije also expressed hope that the ‘Serbian world’ will join a ‘new political realignment’ with Russia in the future. This ‘Serbian world’ includes Serbs outside Serbia’s borders, and Porfirije further thanked Putin for supporting Serbia’s demands for Kosovo,” Stradner points out.

 

 

The close ties between religious and ethnic identity in the Western Balkans mean that such issues quickly merge with each other and contribute to the region's political instability. Shortly after the patriarchs' meeting in Moscow, Dodik caused "renewable outrage" by suggesting that Bosnian Muslims should "return to the Orthodox faith" as a solution to the country's political divisions, she recalled.

It's time for decisive moves by the West

Despite close ties with Russia, Vučić has often managed to promote an image of himself as a moderate, balancing on a tightrope between Russia and the West, the author points out.

 

Serbia, she argues, has become a significant channel through which Russia can evade sanctions imposed on it by the United States and European countries, and the European Union has repeatedly confronted Serbian complicity in violating sanctions - its latest round of sanctions includes measures against some Serbian companies, and the Serbian government has issued passports to dozens of Russians with ties to the Kremlin, the Russian defense industry, and Russian intelligence services.

 

"The West must understand that Vučić's pro-Western moves are just a front: he is happy to talk about getting closer to the European Union when it can bring economic aid, but has no interest in respecting European standards of democracy or the rule of law. Therefore, all his pro-European moves are half-measures, aimed at dragging the West in and strengthening the power of his regime. Instead of trying to win Serbia over with promises of EU membership, the West must take a tougher stance, threatening sanctions on key officials. In Bosnia, Dodik and his allies are particularly vulnerable, with Putin distracted in Ukraine and Vučić dealing with a large opposition movement at home. The opportunity will not last forever: Western powers must act decisively," Stradner underlines.

 

She also recalls the fact that NATO has strengthened its forces in Kosovo, while the European Union is increasing the scope of its peacekeeping mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

 

However, she points out, the West must transfer the fight to the information space.

 

"Instead of merely taking defensive action against Russian influence operations, NATO's hybrid warfare teams should target Serbian nationalists, driving a wedge between them and their Russian patrons. They should emphasize that Russia will not be of any help as an ally if war breaks out; Putin is too distracted by his own war in Ukraine to materially assist Serbia in its conflict with NATO," he adds.

 

Finally, he highlights another important piece of information, which could be used in favor of the West.

 

Namely, in May 2025, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) accused Serbia of "attempting to stab Russia in the back," claiming that Serbian defense companies were supplying weapons to Ukraine with "one obvious purpose: to kill and maim Russian soldiers and civilians." In a statement, the SVR accused "Serbian defense contractors and their patrons" of profiting "from the blood of their fraternal Slavic peoples."

 

"Although Russia tries to portray itself as the protector of its 'Slavic brother', the statement of the SVR is far from the truth. The West should use information operations to target the nationalist audience in Serbia that still believes in ethnic unity between Russia and Serbia. They should remind the Serbs that Russia participated in the NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo, only leaving it in 2003. NATO's information warfare teams should ask Serbian nationalists: 'Where was Russia? 1999 to protect his Slavic brothers from NATO?' Yugoslavia's requests for military support from Russia were met with incomplete S-300 systems that were not even functional. Serbian nationalists should be reminded that in May 1992, Russia voted in favor of a UN Security Council resolution imposing sanctions against Yugoslavia. Moscow also supplied weapons to Croatia during the Yugoslav wars, and in 1999, it was Moscow's disapproval that prevented Yugoslavia from joining the Slavic Union between Russia and Belarus. Information warfare teams should do everything they can to confront nationalist Serbs with the reality of Russia's ambivalence towards the real fate of Serbia," Stradner underlined.

 

The author believes that Washington should not hesitate to use the sanctions that Joe Biden approved in 2021 against individuals who "threaten the peace, security, stability, or territorial integrity" of the region, and for the US sanctions to have maximum impact, the United Kingdom and the European Union should join Washington's efforts.

 

"Only by resolutely opposing Russian political warfare in the Western Balkans and by engaging firmly with the Vučić government will the West be able to preserve the fragile peace there, guarantee the region's democratic future, and deter Putin's chaos," she concludes.