Russians will strike at water resources. What scenarios are possible and what should Ukrainians prepare for?

Russia shifts the focus of attacks from energy to water. The consequences can vary—from water and heating interruptions to the shutdown of sewage systems and, consequently, the disruption of normal life in entire cities. LIGA.net consulted experts to find out what Ukrainians should expect.

Water or electricity: which is more difficult to "fix"?

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyydeclaredthat Russia is preparing a new wave of attacks on critical infrastructure. The priority targets now include not only energy facilities but also water supply systems, with attempts to create problems with access to water for Ukrainians. According to Zelensky, communities must take this risk into account and prepare for it at the level of infrastructure and response plans. Meanwhile, the state is strengthening its air defense.

Ukrainian cities have already experienced water supply disruptions, but mostly as a consequence of blackouts, they were not critical. The operation of water utilities was possible to restore thanks to backup power, including generators. However, a scenario in which water supply disappears for a prolonged period – for days or weeks – has fundamentally different consequences. Unlike electricity, which can be partially compensated at the household or business level (generators, batteries, alternative sources), water remains a much more centralized system. Its supply depends on complex infrastructure: water intakes, pump stations, treatment facilities, main pipelines, and drainage systems.

As explained by the Director of Information Policy at the "Ukrvodokanalekologiya" Association, Viktoria Yakovleva, water utilities are essentially an underground engineering system composed of thousands of kilometers of networks. It is difficult to destroy with a single blow, but in the event of multiple damages, it becomes very challenging to repair: restoration requires time, equipment, and access to the damaged areas.

Another key feature is double vulnerability. On one hand, it's the physical infrastructure that can be damaged by shelling. On the other, it's a system almost entirely dependent on electricity. Pumps that maintain pressure in the network do not work without power. Thus, even attacks on the energy sector automatically impact water supply. In other words, strikes on different types of infrastructure can amplify each other. If shelling of energy infrastructure affects the power situation at the regional or national level, then in the case of water, the consequences are more local but can be critical for a specific city.

Damage to a key facility—such as a pumping station or a main water pipeline—can result in a complete loss of water in a particular metropolis. The water supply system is also inextricably linked with the sewerage system. Wastewater removal requires the continuous operation of pumping stations, and in the event of their stoppage, there is a risk of rapid accumulation of sewage and a violation of sanitary safety.

Domino Effect for Ukrainian Cities

In the event of attacks on water infrastructure, it is not just about the absence of water from the tap. The consequences affect several systems at once. As Konstantin Kovalchuk, Deputy Minister of Community and Territorial Development of Ukraine, explains, not only water pipelines are at risk, but the entire complex of facilities: water supply systems, wastewater systems, dams, and other engineering structures. In case of damage, simultaneous disruptions in electricity and water supply are possible.

The key issue lies in the interdependence of systems.

1. Electricity = water.Water utilities depend on electricity. Without power, pump stations stop, the system pressure drops, and water stops flowing into homes.

2. Water = warmth.In most cities, centralized heating is based on the circulation of hot water. Without feeding the system, it loses pressure, which stops the heat supply.

3. Frost = infrastructure destruction.In winter, the remaining water in the pipes freezes, which can lead to their damage. This complicates and prolongs the system restoration.

4. Sewerage = sanitary safety.The most critical element is drainage. If the sewage pumping stations stop, the sewage system ceases to function.

According to Oleg Popenko, the head of the Union of Public Utilities Consumers, the shutdown of the sewage system is the point after which a city effectively loses its ability to function normally. Unlike water supply, which has temporary alternatives (such as water delivery, springs, and pumps), there are practically no backup solutions for sewage on the scale of a large city.

According to Popenko's assessment, in the event of prolonged disruptions (up to several weeks or a month, depending on the system's condition), this could lead to the complete degradation of urban infrastructure. This means that due to the cascading failure of electricity, water, heating, and sewage, the city becomes uninhabitable: basic services cease to function, and the risks of accidents, diseases, and the actual collapse of infrastructure increase.

Who will suffer the most and how the systems are responding

The risk of attacks on water infrastructure is not tied to specific cities. More precisely, it is impossible to predict accurately. Kostiantyn Kovalchuk notes that the entire territory of Ukraine is under threat since strikes on critical infrastructure occur across the country. Frontline regions face higher risks due to the increased intensity of attacks, but overall, no region can be considered completely secure.

At the same time, the scale of the consequences depends on the size of the settlement. According to Oleh Popenko, large cities are the most vulnerable. In metropolises, the sewerage system is centralized and complex, and its shutdown creates problems that cannot be quickly resolved by alternative means. Unlike small communities, where the system's scope is smaller and some issues can be resolved locally (for example, by pumping), in large cities this is technically almost impossible. A separate factor is critical facilities. Primarily, hospitals and other social institutions suffer from the disruptions.

How communities prepare for challenges

The government and communities are already preparing for possible scenarios. According to Kostiantyn Kovalchuk, resilience plans have been developed and approved for each region, outlining four main directions:

• engineering protection of critical infrastructure;

• development of distributed generation;

• backup power supply for water and heat supply facilities;

• decentralization of systems.

In case of damage, standard response scenarios are applied:

• delivery of drinking and technical water;

• use of alternative sources (wells, spring water points);

• water supply according to schedules.

These mechanisms have already been used in certain regions during previous attacks on infrastructure. At the same time, according to experts, even with response plans in place, prolonged disruption of water supply and sewage systems remains one of the most challenging issues for urban infrastructure.

What a City Without Water Looks Like: The Case of Mykolaiv and Donetsk

Water resource management expert and PhD in geography Maryana Hinzula explains that threats to Ukraine's water infrastructure are not new. The water supply system is an extensive network of water intakes, pumping stations, and treatment facilities, capable of withstanding local disruptions, yet recovery from large-scale damage requires time and resources.

The nearest example of a prolonged water crisis is the occupied Donetsk. The city has lacked stable centralized water supply for over a year. Similar issues are spreading to other occupied territories of the Donetsk region, where residents are forced to search for water on their own. In Donetsk, conflicts over access to water are being recorded, including theft of supplies and physical altercations between people. The occupation authorities apply pressure on those residents who publicly speak about the problem. This case demonstrates that in the event of a prolonged loss of centralized water supply, the issue transcends the communal sphere and shifts into the humanitarian domain: access to water becomes a key survival factor.

As another example, Hinzul cites Mykolaiv, which experienced a prolonged lack of centralized water supply in 2022–2023 after a direct damage to the water pipeline. The city survived thanks to water deliveries and reserves. For one person's sanitary needs, the expert says, approximately 20 liters per day is sufficient, whereas the normal usage in an apartment with a water supply is over 140 liters.

How to Prepare the Community

In Ukrvodokanalkologiya, they say that in addition to the physical protection of facilities, it is necessary to ensure energy independence by installing generators and cogeneration units that allow pumping stations to continue operating even during a complete blackout.

In the long term, it is necessary to create alternative water intakes, develop a network of fountains and water stands, and also duplicate key elements by creating backup systems or facilities – for example, additional pumping stations, power sources, or pipelines, so that the failure of one component does not paralyze the entire system. It is also important to build reserves – from equipment and reagents to fuel and repair materials – calculated for at least several months of autonomous operation.

In the event of damage to the automated control, the system should be ready to operate in "manual mode." This refers specifically to SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition – a system that allows for remote monitoring and control of engineering processes such as pumps or networks in real time).

A separate layer of security is the physical protection of critical objects – pumping stations and nodes – as much as technical conditions allow. At the same time, as Oleg Popenko emphasizes, the most sensitive element remains the sewage pumping stations, as their stoppage poses the most serious risks for the city. That is why, along with basic solutions, it is worth developing mobile solutions as well – temporary wastewater pumping systems and mobile sanitary complexes, which can at least partially back up the system when it fails.

How Ukrainians should prepare

At the household level, the options are, of course, more modest, but even basic preparation can significantly reduce the risk of being completely without water. First and foremost, it's important to ensure a supply of drinking and technical water for at least a few days. If possible, it's better to identify alternative sources in advance—wells, pumps, or local boreholes (for the private sector).

Experts recommend purchasing hydro-accumulators with a volume of approximately 100–200 liters: they allow you to store water during supply times and cope more calmly with outages. And finally, it's worth having a simple but clear action plan—understanding where exactly to get water in case of interruptions, knowing delivery points, nearby sources, and being aware of possible supply schedules if they are implemented.