Russian tactics against Moldova reveal what threatens BiH's European future

The streets of Chisinau are bustling despite the low temperatures, while many citizens of the Moldovan capital hide their concerns about the country’s future in their daily lives. The recent presidential elections, the EU referendum, and the gas crisis have shown how strong Russian influence is in the country, and experts feel that the fight for democracy is just beginning, as crucial parliamentary elections await them this fall.

“We had campaigns on television, hundreds of Telegram and TikTok channels, Facebook pages, but also local politicians who lied about the EU and European values every day,” says Mihai Avasiloaie as we talk to him in downtown Chisinau in February 2025 about the turbulent end of the previous year.

His organization StopFals analyzes Moldovan public space and has recorded numerous messages that targeted people’s emotions and fears. All in an effort to thwart a referendum in which Moldovans voted on whether they wanted their country to remain on the path to the EU.

"They used many escalation channels. Some of the fake news reached the mainstream media, and some were spoken by politicians - local and those in Moscow. But it is the spread of the same narratives every day, which, interestingly, follow the events in the country very carefully," adds Avasiloaie.

Precisely because of these tactics, they believe in Kišnjevo, Russian propaganda managed to turn the referendum on the country's future into a battle for the defense of democracy.

And the Russian heritage can be seen at every step when walking through the country's capital. The taxis we use to drive to the next interlocutor bear YandexGo marks on them - a Russian international corporation specializing in the management of Internet services, and almost all taxi drivers do not speak any language other than Russian. It is unusual for them when they hear the Bosnian language, which is very similar to their own, and they quickly become interested in our visit to Kišnjevo.

Near the Valea Morilor lake, in a dilapidated courtyard that looks more like a family home than an office, we meet Andrei Curarau from WatchDog, an organization that works to build resilience to disinformation and manipulative messages. He says it’s clear that the Moldovan media has been infiltrated by Russian money, influence and spokespeople, whose goal is to bring Moldova back into the Russian embrace after the country, like Bosnia and Herzegovina, opened accession talks with the EU last year.

 

“There’s not a week that goes by without Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova mentioning us. Last week, they produced 700 news stories in Russian media about Moldova. Imagine, for such a small country. Because people trust these media, and our diaspora often follows them,” Curarau adds.

Pro-Russian actors in the country have realized that they cannot immediately produce a positive image for Russia, so they have given up trying and focused on short-term actions by criticizing the government and the EU, fabricating stories about refugees from Ukraine who want everything for free in their country. And then they used the recent increases in food and fuel prices to blame Ukraine for starting the war and that Russia was not actually the bad side of the story.

“And whenever you see that a popular conversation is about some hate speech, a social issue, you can see some kind of Russian influence behind it. Because often the same Telegram channels spread the news to their audience, and then share it on TikTok, Facebook and other networks,” Curarau points out.

The fear of the war spilling over from Ukraine into Moldovan territory is further heightened by the constant threat from Transnistria, a puppet autonomous pro-Russian region in the east of the country. This particular entity, on whose borders armed Russian soldiers walk, is one of the most powerful weapons of Russian propaganda in the country in an attempt to distance it from NATO and the EU, but also to maintain tensions.

Lilia Cravcenco-Zaharia, Executive Director of Transparency International Moldova, believes that disinformation campaigns have led to deep divisions in the country, and that the ratio of pro-European and pro-Russian forces is approximately equal. That is why she is pessimistic, because during the crucial referendum only the diaspora helped her homeland stay on the EU path.

“Now we have an energy crisis from Transnistria and many people, especially from settlements further from Chisinau, believe that Europe and the Americans created this crisis and are waiting for the Russian Federation to help us and save us,” adds Cravcenco-Zaharia.

For her, the situations in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Moldova are remarkably similar, due to the existence of a large number of myths and fake news about what the EU brings to these countries, and she blames this mostly on the insufficient level of education and low level of media literacy in society.

"There are many myths that Europe will bring in homosexuals, that it will abolish some laws, even that it will forbid you to speak your native language. And then politicians and public figures go from settlement to settlement and scare people about gays or about NATO with all these conspiracies," says Kravcenko-Zaharia.

It is members of minority communities, such as LGBT, who are among those who feel the consequences of disinformation and propaganda the most. Angelica Frolov from the organization Genderdoc-M, with whom we speak in a specially secured house on the outskirts of Chisinau, says that today members of this community are used as an internal enemy.

“They scare people that LGBT monsters will come who will take away their children, destroy their families. And then the frightened people naturally vote for those who spread such rumors, and they need it because it is the easiest way to get public money,” says Angelica.

The security used by her organization clearly shows that the threats against members of the organization are not just messages sent by foreign agencies to scare Moldovan citizens. The building where her organization’s offices are located has prominent LGBT community symbols on it, and it is entered through a wide metal door that cannot be entered without an announcement.

Amidst the tensions over the pro-European referendum, along with regular hate speech on the internet, this community has also become the victim of a wider campaign of fake bomb threats. The festival they organized was almost canceled after the threat, which forced them to find a new location at the last minute and increase security for the participants. Angelica blames Russia and its information warfare for such actions.

“This is the first time something like this has happened, but it was before the referendum itself. That’s why I think it’s them, and they were drawing attention to LGBT organizations in order to use them against Moldova’s integration into the EU,” she adds.

But they are not the only organization to have faced false reports. Just like in Bosnia, last year, schools, courts, and the airport in Chisinau were among the victims of false bomb threats.

Across from the national library in Moldova, we meet Mihai Lupascu, director of the state agency for cybersecurity. Although his agency is supposed to be about defending technology and the future, their offices are in an older, socialist-looking building whose interior resembles a bunker.

As we walk down a dimly lit hallway, Mihai tells us how, a few months ago, they were confronted with fake email accounts that were used to flood police agencies with false bomb threats and futilely check empty buildings.

“We see these as mechanisms that increase pressure on society and try to create social unrest and anxiety, in order to increase tension among citizens affected by the threats,” Lupascu says.

They have not been able to uncover motives, but believe that in some cases it was to delay hearings in important judicial processes or simply to create chaos. For him, the tips are just one of the tools from the world of cyber threats that Russia uses in Moldova. Much more often they record cyber attacks that are directed against state institutions and the number of which has increased since the country began negotiations with the EU, which he calls hybrid warfare.

The most common attacks are politically motivated DDoS attacks that hackers use to target governments and create distrust in institutions, especially by spreading messages about the consequences of attacks via social media.

“And when an attack occurs, a photo showing that a government system is inaccessible immediately starts circulating on Telegram channels of groups known to be supported by Russia. So, we know who the attackers are because they don’t even hide it,” Lupascu explains.

In addition, last year they recorded several large “hack and publish” attacks, one of which occurred during the presidential elections, when the emails of all members and employees of parliament were attacked, and then all their data was published.

For him, it is important for Moldova to move closer to European cybersecurity laws because of such threats. He also expects concrete steps to be taken to protect critical infrastructure. And the importance of integrating into EU trends as quickly as possible is also emphasized by other interlocutors, who state that this is a turning point that will determine the fate of Moldova, but also of all other countries trying to join the Union, such as BiH.

“I think it is very important that our authorities monitor Russian activities here, because I think the biggest battle will be this year, during the parliamentary elections, because last year’s elections were just a small skirmish,” says Cravcenco-Zaharia.

In a city whose center, streets, and all institutions are decorated with the flags of the European Union, concern, like a bad omen, grows daily. Citizens, especially those who see their future in progress and accession to the Union, fear that one morning, like the Ukrainians, they will see the Russian army or the government in parliament on the streets of their cities.

WatchDog experts agree with this, who see the greatest threat for the future in new provocations, protests, but also in undetected agents of Russian propaganda. Therefore, they advise their own authorities, but also the authorities of countries that have recently begun their European path, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, to investigate all their vulnerabilities and face them as soon as possible, because this is what will be used against them.

"Never think that Russia won't do something, because we always thought they were calculated, that they thought a lot about plans. But after Ukraine, anything is possible. They will even do confusing things, they just care about creating chaos and exerting their influence," says Curarau.