Russia withdraws troops. How the defeat of the Kremlin in Syria will affect the war in Ukraine

The burden on Putin's back. How the flight of Russians from Syria began

Russia withdraws troops from Syria. At least two large amphibious ships were involved, says a LIGA.net interlocutor in the Main Intelligence Directorate.

According to one version, after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime, the Russians expect to continue to control only two important facilities in Syria.

"The Russians had naval bases on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea. Khmeimim air base, where the main headquarters of the Russian forces were. Dozens of smaller formations and Wagner bases in the desert where they tried to control the Syrian oil fields and pipelines. They had spy towers in Damascus, Tartus , Latakia, where they engaged in radio-reconnaissance," a retired member of the navy, manager of the security programs of the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI", told LIGA.net Pavlo Lakijchuk.

Most likely, most of the Russian troops will end up in Ukraine. But the bonuses that Ukraine receives from the strategic defeat of Russia overshadow all the shortcomings on the battlefield, emphasizes Igal Levin, an officer of the Israel Defense Forces, for LIGA.net.

On November 27, 2024, the Syrian resistance movement launched a large-scale offensive against Assad's government forces in the western part of Aleppo province. In just two days - on November 29 - the rebels entered the city of Aleppo for the first time since 2016.

On December 8, the rebels captured Damascus and announced the fall of the Assad regime.

Against the background of these events, Russia has asked Turkey to ensure the safe withdrawal of its troops from Syria. According to Turkish media, Russian troops plan to withdraw from the territory of Syria, retaining control over only two important facilities: the naval base in Tartus and the Khmeimim air base.

In the base in the port of Tartus, according to the media, Russia kept six warships, including a submarine. Among them were two frigates of the "Gorshkov" class, one frigate of the "Grihorovich" class, two auxiliary vessels and a submarine.

It was Tartus that became one of the foundations of the Russian presence in Syria, explains Pavlo Lakijčuk for LIGA.net. In the port of Tartus, Russia received the 720th point of material and technical support from the Soviet Union. By 2015, the Russians had significantly expanded it to a size comparable to the geoport at the Novorossiysk Naval Base, which is the main base of the Black Sea Fleet.

Syrian ports were closely connected with Novorossiysk: the so-called "Syrian Express" went to Tartus and Latakia since 2015.

 

"Civilian bulkers carrying weapons and ammunition to Syria were first loaded into Novorossiysk. Then the Russians tried to use large landing ships and auxiliary ships of the Black Sea Fleet for this. Something was constantly going to Syria this way. Whether it was for the Khmeimim air base or for the development of Tartus, ammunition, equipment, Wagner units deployed around - you name it," says Lakijchuk.

After the full invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the "Syrian Express" went in the opposite direction, Lakijchuk continues. When the Russian dictator Putin realized that he lacked the strength to conquer Ukraine, he began to take out of Syria both what the Russians had brought there and what Assad was willing to share with them.

The Russians have weakened their group in Syria to the extent that, in principle, it has become possible to overthrow the Assad regime, an interlocutor in the GUR of the Ministry of Defense adds for LIGA.net:

"They lost control over the regions. And when they realized that the situation could not be contained, they simply began to evacuate their contingent and the top of the Syrian regime, including Assad, whom they themselves "almost destroyed" on December 8.

This is how the Syrian adventure became a burden on Putin's back, Lakijchuk believes:

"When Assad came to Moscow to seek rescue, Putin made it clear that he had other priorities... If he wanted, it was possible to fly Russian paratroopers into Syria, but these paratroopers are now stationed near Pokrovsk and in the Kursk region ".

What is happening with the Russian group in Syria

The further fate of these facilities is questionable, says Lakijčuk. According to him, there are various data on the likely development of events: from the fact that the rebels gave Putin 48 hours to withdraw the troops, to the fact that there will be an agreement on the extension of the use of the base by Russia.

"For now, the evacuation of the Russian army continues in full swing," says a retired member of the navy.

It is still difficult to determine the exact number of military personnel that the Russians have already evacuated from Syria, a GUR interlocutor told LIGA.net.

In order to evacuate personnel and equipment from Tartus, according to intelligence data, two large amphibious ships were engaged. "I am sure that some additional means of transport will be used," adds the representative of the special service.

"Everything they brought will not fit on two amphibious ships," confirms Lakijchuk. "Each large amphibious ship can accommodate up to 750 people. And in this case we are also talking about equipment, and its quantity is difficult to calculate - because it's not about standard equipment, now they're evacuating the most valuable, the most secret."

How will it affect the war in Ukraine

According to LIGA.net interlocutors, the withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria will not significantly affect the course of hostilities in Ukraine.

 

First of all, it is unlikely that everything the Russians took from Syria will end up in Ukraine, Israel Defense Forces officer and military observer Yigal Levin explains to LIGA.net. "Part of the forces could be transferred to Libya," Levin believes.

Second, the Russian contingent in Syria due to the war in Ukraine was insignificant.

"Several hundred specialists remained there. This is no longer the same contingent as in 2015-2016. They quantitatively do not affect anything, no matter where they are transferred," emphasizes Levin.

Everything that the Russians could have taken from Syria and transferred to Ukraine has already been taken and transferred, an interlocutor in the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications confirmed for LIGA.net:

"The contingent that remained in Syria is not large enough to create serious problems for the defense forces of Ukraine."

The basis of Russian troops in Syria were ships and aviation - planes and helicopters, adds Levin:

"But you shouldn't think that there were any super-pilots there. All combat-capable Russian pilots have been fighting against Ukraine for a long, long time."

However, strategically, Ukraine received several significant bonuses. In particular, the number of risks for the Black Sea is decreasing, Lakijčuk believes.

The Russians, preparing for an attack on Ukraine, drove a large group of their ships into the Mediterranean Sea, recalls Lakijchuk. But they could not use them in the occupation of Ukraine - thanks to the fact that Turkey, invoking the Montreux Convention, closed the Black Sea Bosphorus and Dardanelles to warships.

"This entire Russian armada from the Pacific and Northern fleets hung in the Tartus area for another two years. If the Turkish side decided to open the Black Sea Strait for some reason, they would pose a significant threat to Ukraine," explains Lakiychuk. "Now Tartus can hardly be a springboard to the Black Sea. We can breathe a sigh of relief here".

The very psychological fact that Russia has lost an entire country with a loyal regime in the Middle East overshadows all the negativity that "one and a half Russian pilots" can bring, Levin adds. It shows that Russia can be beaten.

"We understand this not only from Syria or some other regions," the representative of the intelligence services explains to LIGA.net "The Defense Forces of Ukraine deal with this 24/7".