"Russia through Serbia is trying to preserve the potential to harm Europe": How do analysts see the relationship between the two countries?

 

In a recent statement to the Serbian media, Aleksandar Bocan Harchenko said, among other things, that Russia's position is that the Kosovo problem should be resolved only after the end of the war in Ukraine, which is the opposite of how the West sees the resolution of relations between Belgrade and Pristina.

 

The President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić and Bocan Harčenko met on Tuesday, and in the official press release it was revealed that the conversation was about current events in Kosovo and the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, as well as bilateral relations and economic cooperation, writes Glas Amerika.

 

Also, in the congratulatory letter that Russian President Vladimir Putin sent to Aleksandar Vučić on the occasion of Serbia's Statehood Day on Tuesday, it is emphasized that Moscow considers Serbia its reliable partner and that it appreciates Belgrade's balanced foreign policy course:

 

"We support your efforts aimed at protecting the territorial integrity of the country and solving the Kosovo issue," Putin wrote and emphasized that "he is convinced that the further development of the Russian-Serbian strategic partnership fully corresponds to the interests of our brotherly nations."

 

In an interview for Voice of America, Filip Balunović from the Belgrade Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory points out that it was only a question of when Russian diplomacy would become more actively involved in this area:

 

"Russia only communicated through the channel of its ambassador what we already know, which is that Russia, like some other countries in the West, is interested in our region, and not because it wants to help, it may not necessarily want to do anything, but he wants to respect his interests. And to maintain its influence on European soil".

 

Reminding that Serbia and BiH, i.e. Republika Srpska, are the only two European countries where Russia can remain a serious international actor, Balunović also believes that it is an interesting moment when Moscow appears on the scene:

 

"The timing is interesting, I think it is timely - before the debate about whether something like that will be signed or not heats up, they decided to intervene, especially after Kurti's statement, which, I must admit, was unexpected for me , which is that they will accept this agreement in principle. We will see how things will unfold when it comes to some more concrete steps that Prishtina will take, but it certainly brings to the surface everything that has been known for a long time under the grain," says Balunović.

Even for the director of the Center for Practical Politics, Dragan Popović, the Russian ambassador's message is not a big surprise, and in his opinion, it only confirms that Russia is using all the problems in the Balkans to maintain instability and that it constantly maintains the potential to harm Europe.

 

The Balkans is the soft underbelly of Europe and, along with Moldova, it is the only area in Europe where Russia can exert some influence, but even there its possibilities are limited:

 

We slightly overestimate the possibility of Russia causing a conflict without cooperation with the regime in Serbia. So it's a different matter if the regime in Serbia judges that the conflict suits it, then we talk about other things, but Russia itself is not, it seems to me, so powerful that it can cause a conflict on its own, but of course it is powerful enough to maintain tensions", says Popović in an interview for The Voice of America points out:

 

"All in all, it seems to me that the attitude that it is least in Russia's interest to ever end any of the conflicts in the Western Balkans, and especially not a potentially explosive conflict like Kosovo, is not something very new."

 

 

Is it still possible to sit on more than one chair?

 

Whether the Tadić-Vučić policy of sitting on multiple chairs is slowly coming to an end with open messages from Moscow is a big question - as Filip Balunović believes, who points out that only Vučić knows whether "it has burned down to the nails or the ankles".

 

There is an increasingly sharp debate in the country about Kosovo, and on the other hand, Balunović believes, Vučić's main desire is to remain in power and from that point of view, "this limbo of his and playing between several poles is something we can expect in the coming period as well":

 

"I do not ignore his ability to politically reinvent or reinvent himself, to somehow rise from the ashes and increase his power again at the expense of this or that. This current situation is much more serious than some of the internal political situations he was in in the past, I can't say that I am sure that he will fall, nor that he will have any benefit, but I think that he will have a lot of problems to explain to his voters any a turn towards the West", says Balunović, while Dragan Popović believes that exactly such a position is something that suits Aleksandar Vučić:

 

"If you want to build an autocratic government, then you definitely need that kind of constant conflict. So, that you are constantly in the middle of some kind of big international storm, that you are threatened, that there is danger, so there must not be peace, people must not think that what they bring to the table, what they earn is a key issue. If they think that, the government is in trouble for obvious reasons. As long as they think that their biggest problem is some kind of imaginary fight for Kosovo or for Republika Srpska, the government is not much threatened, but it is getting stronger and stronger".

 

On the other hand, Popović does not believe that this situation will force Brussels and even Washington to play harder with the President of Serbia on the issue of sanctions against Russia and on other issues on which they do not agree with Serbia:

 

"I do not rule out that the pressure may increase in the future. Perhaps, above all, from the USA, I have some doubts that Europe has that kind of strength, but above all, if the USA decides to increase the pressure a little - it can lead to some results when it comes to the Serbian-Kosovo agreement, but also when it comes to sanctions against Russia. Otherwise, I say again, despite all the fences, what we are seeing now in the past year - I don't see any great power, primarily from Western countries, to influence Aleksandar Vučić".

 

For Filip Balunović, the real question is why the West, in this case Brussels above all, does not offer Serbia something more than the "take it or leave it" policy that has been current in recent months:

 

"I don't think that what some circles in Serbia are probably hoping for will happen, which is for the West to offer something a little more, above all when it comes to European integration and something more concrete. I don't think that will happen. And I'm surprised, considering that the West also knows if they really care about solving the Gordian knot, I'm surprised that they don't give at least something. At least something. Is it a date, is it a projection, etc., but here I leave the possibility that the response of Brussels or Berlin or Paris, or all of them together, will be something a little more tangible on the side of the benefits that Serbia could have in terms of European integration".