Russia — More Than a Local Difficulty
The Kremlin’s aggression may be focused on Ukraine, but its fingerprints are found on many of the world’s crime scenes.
It is a mistake commonly made to argue that Russia presents only a localized threat. It is wrong and it needs to be squashed because the Kremlin’s menace is not limited, it affects the whole planet. This is key to understanding the modern world and denying it would cause serious repercussions.
Of the four members of the “Axis of Upheaval”, Russia is the most active agent of malign disruption. Experts acknowledge Russia as an “architect of destabilization and chaos.” It wages a war of aggression in Ukraine, supports frozen conflicts, helps Houthis target commercial and Israeli shipping in the Red Sea, supports a civil war in Sudan, and generally undermines Middle Eastern and African stability for commercial and strategic gain.
To understand the sources of Russia’s conduct, we must recognize that the ideology of Russian imperialism drives its foreign policy, stimulating its ambition to recreate an empire of subservient states. To achieve security in Europe, we must therefore defeat Russian imperialism. Only then can Russia’s imperial drive be redirected to more useful purposes, something every other former European colonial power accepted decades ago.
Imperialism, extending a state’s dominion by direct territorial acquisition or by gaining political and economic control of other polities by coercion, supposedly ended after the post-World War Two decolonization of the British, French, Dutch, and Portuguese overseas empires.
The 1991 fall of the Soviet Union likewise represented another imperial breakup with 14 separate nations, Georgians, Armenians, Estonians, and others, regaining independence. However, Russia never came to terms with this decolonization and soon resumed a drive to restore the empire.
Moscow intends to restore hegemony, if not direct rule, in former Soviet republics and Warsaw Pact states, coerce or beguile the rest of the world to accept this hegemony and restore relations with authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and Africa that were interrupted after the fall of communism. If Russia restores its Eurasian empire, it will strengthen China, Iran, and North Korea — the other members of the Axis of Upheaval — regenerate war across Eurasia, and undermine US interests and global international order.
Ukraine, for historical, ideological, economic, political, and strategic reasons is at the epicenter of Russia’s imperial quest. Putin et al believe that Ukraine (and the entire Soviet Union) is “historical Russia.” So, if Ukraine falls, all those territories including Central and Eastern Europe will be in their gunsights.
Russia is already waging political warfare against all of Europe replete with attacks on civilian and maritime infrastructure, assassinations, increased espionage, information, and cyber warfare, lawfare, and disruptions of energy supplies to deter support for Ukraine. It understands — even if the West does not — that if Ukraine wins, which is possible given steady Western support despite claims to the contrary, not only is Putin’s regime weakened, but European security will be regenerated.
Since Russian imperialism is incompatible with international security and entails permanent war or cold war throughout Eurasia, if not globally, this war’s outcome will decide European, not only Ukrainian and Russian, security.
Africa too is a staging ground for Russian imperialism. The Kremlin is building a network across the Sahel and potentially North Africa based not on ideology but on its strategic and commercial interests. Russian mercenaries (de facto members of its military intelligence apparatus) support dictatorial regimes in exchange for access to gold, diamonds, and other natural resources, including rare earths. Gold from Sudanese mines makes its way to Russia thus circumventing international sanctions.
And that is only one example of Russian exploitation. Russian mercenary atrocities fuel local insurgencies and motivate recruits to join Salafist terrorist groups in the Sahel. But beyond seeking lasting economic and political influence in the best tradition of 19th-century imperialism, Russia’s military covets Africa because it seeks bases along its coast from which to threaten NATO and the US.
It is true that Russia’s recent loss of its Syrian bases portends the loss of its logistics lynchpin for its Africa operations. Without naval and airbases, Moscow cannot continue its African operations as before. That is why Moscow is trying to expand its presence in Libya. The US and allies should pressure Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar (who holds US citizenship) not to provide Russia with bases in eastern Libya to replace those lost in Syria.
Russian imperialism is far from quiescent. The new Russo-Iranian Treaty formalizes a long-standing multi-dimensional military, political, and economic cooperation, it also contains language that might indicate a future Russian base or at least expanded port access in Iran. And Russia did previously have an air base in Iran. Likewise, Iran’s recently disclosed underground air base appears to be built to accommodate Russian advanced fighter jets that Iran now claims to be receiving. Furthermore, Russia has long supported all of Iran’s terrorist proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and now the Houthis by giving them weapons and political support.
Neither are Russian ambitions confined to the Middle East and Africa. Russia also seeks bases in Myanmar, the Indian Ocean, and Latin America. Moreover, its cooperation with China in Europe and Asia clearly destabilizes international security.
Support for Ukraine, leading to its victory, is well within our capabilities and in our interests. Defeating Russian imperialism in Ukraine and elsewhere will restore European security, reduce the China threat, and help pacify the Greater Middle East.
This would diminish the burdens on US forces while strengthening those of our allies. Ensuring the defeat of Russian imperialism in Ukraine represents the only outcome that will advance American security and foster an era of genuine peace through strength.
Stephen Blank and Philip Wasielewski are Senior Fellows, Foreign Policy Research Institute.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.