Russia intensifies strikes on Ukraine: what is Putin's goal?

On Friday morning, July 11, Russia launched a drone strike on Odessa. Local media reported that the strike hit the building of the territorial procurement center and residential buildings. Kharkiv was also hit by a drone attack. According to the head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration (OVA), Oleg Sinegubov, several buildings were damaged by shelling, including a maternity hospital. The day before the strike, at least two people were killed in a massive night raid on Kiev, and destruction was reported in several districts. The mayor of the Ukrainian capital, Vitali Klitschko, reported the destruction of an ambulance station in the Podilsky district.

These attacks were the latest in a series of massive combined strikes by Russia in recent times. What happened in Kiev on the night of July 4 was called the "night of hell" in the Ukrainian media. Then the Russian military launched an attack with more than 500 drones, as well as Kinzhal and Iskander missiles.

In this context, even US President Donald Trump, who previously called himself a mediator in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, expressed his disappointment with Russia. He also intensified his rhetoric against the Kremlin.

"If you want to know the truth, Putin throws us a lot of nonsense. He is always very kind, but it turns out that it means nothing," the US president said the day before.

Soon after these words, according to Reuters, the US resumed deliveries of some types of weapons to Ukraine. According to the agency's sources, these include artillery shells and mobile rocket artillery systems.

 

Russia can produce tens of thousands of drones per month

 

Russia has the ability to carry out such massive strikes thanks to its recently established drone production, which means Russia no longer has to rely on Iran, as it did in 2022.

"Russia has been using drones since 2022, but the scale has changed," says military technology expert David Gambling. "They are now producing thousands of drones per month, possibly tens of thousands. That is enough to overload most defense systems designed to intercept missiles."

Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian General Staff added in an interview with DW that Russia would not have been able to carry out such massive strikes on Ukraine without the help of other countries. He draws attention to the fact that China supplies Russia with parts used in the production of drones, and North Korea supplies it with ballistic missiles. "So we see that Russia is counting on allies in this case," Reisner concludes.

 

Russian pressure on Ukraine through terror

 

After another attack on the capital, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky commented on the reasons why Russia could have intensified the shelling of the city. According to him, Putin's goal is "to make our people suffer, to make them flee Ukraine, to destroy houses, schools - life itself - everywhere, not just on the front line," Ukrainian publication NV quoted him as saying.

The Kremlin itself, judging by press reports, is counting on this way to break through Ukrainian defenses in the coming months. The New York Times reported this the day before, citing sources close to the Kremlin.

Colonel Marcus Reisner believes that the Kremlin is trying to achieve two goals at the strategic level with its latest combined attacks on Ukraine. First, to destroy the Ukrainian military-industrial complex. Second, Putin, according to him, is trying to influence Ukrainian society by shelling civilians.

"At the same time, targeted attacks are being carried out on the civilian population, which is being further weakened through terror," Reisner believes. "Indirectly, this is also an attempt to put pressure on the Ukrainian government through society."

 

Is Russia's summer offensive starting?

 

Many military experts expect Russia to launch a new offensive this summer. German political scientist Andreas Heinemann-Grüder believes that the increased combined attacks on Ukraine recently could be part of this offensive campaign.

Russia aims to disable Ukraine's air defenses to the point where they cannot make up for the losses with supplies from the West. This could also indicate, Heinemann-Grüder believes, that Russia is preparing for some kind of "decisive battle" in the belief that by the end of this year or early next year it will be able to pressure Ukraine and subdue it to its demands.

 

Defense companies' fears

Political analysts in an interview with DW express their belief that the West must act more decisively to take the initiative away from Russia on the battlefield. At a conference on the reconstruction of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine has found a solution to repel Russian attacks - according to him, these are interceptor drones. At the same time, the Ukrainian president noted that the country urgently needs significant investments in the defense sector.

Colonel of the Austrian General Staff Markus Reisner admits that Ukraine has achieved good results in the production of its own drones, but in his opinion it cannot do without Western support.

"Ukraine needs Western support with special weapons systems, especially the Patriot air defense system," Reisner says.

On the eve of the meeting, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that Germany is ready to buy Patriot from the United States for Ukraine.

In order to provide truly effective assistance, the West, in supplying weapons to Ukraine, needs to overcome its own fear that these weapons will fall into the hands of Russia, believes political scientist Andreas Heinemann-Gruder. Some Western defense companies, according to him, are afraid that in this way they will lose their technological advantage. In addition, according to experts, defense companies are afraid that the creation of joint ventures with Ukraine will lead to a decrease in the prices of their products.

"In my opinion, such thoughts should be discarded," concludes the political scientist.