Russia and NATO talk about nuclear deterrence. Is nuclear war threatening?

This statement was made a few days after the meeting of defense ministers of NATO countries in Brussels, where the policy of the Alliance in the field of nuclear deterrence was specifically discussed.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reminded at the press conference that this organization unites countries with nuclear weapons that are modernizing and conducting tests, and this is a response to Russia's actions in this field.

The BBC tried to understand what modern nuclear deterrence is like in Europe and what consequences these "clarifications" and "reminders" might have.

The possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine has been discussed since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February 2022. Russia justified this by transferring nuclear munitions to Belarus and by arranging exercises with the withdrawal of nuclear forces to positions.

For its part, NATO, albeit more moderately, openly reminds of the existence of its own nuclear weapons in Europe and talks about deterring Russia.

Since the Cold War, when we talked about nuclear deterrence, we meant strategic weapons – intercontinental missiles and warheads capable of destroying another country.

But now Europe, too, is talking about a smaller-scale deterrent using tactical nuclear weapons (TWW) — lower-power, carrier-mounted warheads with a shorter range.

However, despite these limitations, there can be more problems with it. At least because the role of TYAZ in modern warfare, the number and purpose are not very clearly stated.

Retention

There are three countries with strategic nuclear weapons in NATO - USA, Great Britain and France.

In addition, the US deploys tactical nuclear weapons to five NATO member states as part of the Joint Nuclear Missions Agreement.

US tactical nuclear bombs are believed to be stored in Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and Turkey. These weapons are under American control, and the troops of these countries cannot use them without American permission.

Tactical nuclear weapons may be in France. The 2020 French Nuclear Deterrence report, prepared by the British House of Commons, said France had fewer than 300 nuclear warheads at the time - all deployed and operational.

"France's nuclear deterrent includes submarine and air components, giving it both strategic and tactical nuclear capabilities," the document said.

The fact that in NATO countries, deterrence is provided not only by strategic weapons, but also by TYAZ, which is located in Europe, has been said a lot. But in recent years, it has been mentioned more and more often, especially after a series of statements by the Russian leadership, the transport of tactical weapons to Belarus, and demonstration exercises of tactical nuclear forces.

On June 12, 2024, the Secretary General of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, speaking at a briefing before the start of the meeting of NATO defense ministers, linked nuclear deterrence to Russian activity.

"NATO's nuclear deterrent is our main security guarantee, our main deterrent is what has been developed over the years in agreements on joint nuclear missions, where the United States has nuclear weapons in Europe [...] What we have seen in recent years or months is dangerous nuclear rhetoric from the Russian side. We saw that Russia announced the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, and we also saw several exercises, nuclear exercises by the Russian side," Stoltenberg said.

Five days earlier, speaking at the Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia was using tactical nuclear weapons as a deterrent to European countries.

"Our tactical nuclear weapons are three times more powerful, four times more powerful than the American bombs against Hiroshima and Nagasaki. We have many times more on the European continent. Even if the Americans bring theirs from the United States, we still have more if it comes to that, don't God, no matter how much I want, I will cross myself to reduce the victims, but they can grow to infinity," Putin said at the time.

A non-strategic weapon

Tactical nuclear weapons are usually called "non-strategic", and this wording is perhaps more accurate, since there is no clear definition of a nuclear weapon - any nuclear weapon that is not strategic is considered tactical.

Until now, it has not been agreed that weapons of a certain power and range can be officially considered tactical.

TYAZ was presented in a number of different types at different times. Nuclear can be land-, air- and sea-based ballistic and cruise missiles, artillery shells, torpedoes, and there are completely exotic mines and anti-aircraft missiles.

Unlike strategic nuclear weapons, tactical nuclear weapons are not regulated by international agreements at all. Also, there are no contracts that would regulate the method of its delivery.

In 1987, the USSR and the USA signed the Treaty on the Elimination of Medium- and Short-Range Missiles. The production, testing and deployment of missiles with a range of 500 to 5,000 kilometers (medium range) and 150 to 500 kilometers (short or shorter range) is prohibited.

This range probably also applied to nuclear missiles. But the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate and Short-Range Missiles did not take into account TYAZ, whose range was often less than 500 kilometers, a Russian specialist in the field of strategic nuclear forces explained to the BBC on condition of anonymity. Therefore, it is hard to believe that this document was somehow regulated by TYAZ.

On May 29, 1990, the presidents of the USSR and the United States, Mikhail Gorbachev and George W. Bush, agreed to reduce tactical nuclear weapons in Europe and reduce their combat readiness, but these were unilateral initiatives, not a bilateral agreement.

On September 17, 1991, Bush announced the removal of all artillery shells and warheads of tactical missiles on the territory of the United States of America with their further elimination, removal of TLW from ships, submarines and naval aircraft, as well as the destruction of part of the warheads at sea.

The Russian Foreign Ministry later announced that Russia had met its commitments, including reducing its nuclear arsenal by more than 50 percent for tactical missiles and naval aircraft, air defense missiles and aerial bombs.

However, their total number remained unknown.

The level of ignorance is illustrated by the online guide "Status of the World's Nuclear Powers", published by the "Federation of American Scientists" (an American non-governmental organization that specializes in nuclear arms control research).

According to this guide, the US may have 100 tactical nuclear munitions in service in a deployed state, most likely B61 aerial bombs.

As for other countries, including Russia, there is no information. If Vladimir Putin is to be believed, "there are many times more of them on the European continent, and even if the Americans bring theirs from the USA, there will be many times more".

However, as in the case of US arsenals, no independent source can confirm this.

Unlike nuclear weapons, strategic nuclear weapons were subject to control under the implementation of the Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty, which stipulated not only threshold levels, but also mutual inspections of nuclear facilities.

A dangerous weakness

Since tactical nuclear weapons are not intended for the destruction of enemy states, but for use on the battlefield, their relatively low power is one of the essential characteristics.

However, as military experts point out, the relatively small force of TYAZ is dangerous because politicians or the military may decide to use it, thinking that it will not cause a full-scale nuclear war.

"At the same time, a number of tactical munitions have charges that are equal in power, and sometimes even exceed the charges of strategic systems," another Russian expert, who also wished to remain anonymous, explained to the BBC.

This is especially true of Russian tactical nuclear munitions, the power of some of which can be quite high.

If we take into account the words of Vladimir Putin that Russian tactical nuclear weapons are "three times more powerful, four times more powerful than the American bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki", then their power can be from 50 to 80 kilotons.

 

At the same time, the US, modernizing its nuclear bombs, is trying to reduce their power, while increasing their accuracy.

The latest modification of the American aircraft bomb B61-12 uses a charge of variable power - from 0.3 to 50 kilotons.

However, this lack of TYAZ, which experts have talked about a lot, is exactly what is being commented on in NATO, constantly reminding that implementation issues are discussed collectively, and that politicians are involved in this process.

Both Russia and NATO say the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons are defined in doctrinal documents that are open and available for study.

Policy change

The role of tactical nuclear weapons, as opposed to strategic ones, has long remained expedient - it was seen as an effective means of waging war, where the main weapon would be conventional weapons.

In other words, both in the USA and in the USSR it was considered more powerful artillery, whose task, for example, was to clear the way for a tank offensive. Alternatively, a group of warships could be destroyed at sea by a nuclear missile.

Since it was not, in fact, part of strategic deterrence, it was not a completely prohibited tool in the military's mind, unlike strategic weapons. Strategic arsenals were not intended for war, but to deter war.

Attitudes towards tactical nuclear weapons have changed over time, and now they have become a component of nuclear deterrence, and they have retained their shortcomings - a certain non-transparency of the arsenal, and even the relatively low power of some systems.

The change in relation to TAZ happened earlier, but the biggest factor that actually caused the accelerated construction of the European TAZ deterrent system was the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

On March 24, 2022, at its extraordinary summit, NATO decided to significantly strengthen its "long-term deterrence and defense posture" and develop "the full range of ready forces and capabilities needed to support credible deterrence and defense." This applied to all types of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons.

At the Vilnius summit in 2023, NATO member states confirmed that they will do everything necessary for the reliability, effectiveness and security of the nuclear deterrent mission.

These include modernizing NATO's nuclear capabilities and "updating planning to increase the flexibility and adaptability of the Alliance's nuclear forces."

Both Russia and NATO insist on the defensive nature of their nuclear forces, on clear political control and adherence to doctrinal documents.

But at the same time, both NATO and Russia are improving their arsenals, openly conducting training, and finally, they are increasingly talking about it at the official level and in the press.

 

So the question arises…

...Is there a possibility of a nuclear war in Europe

From time to time materials appear in the Russian press about hypothetical scenarios of the first use of nuclear weapons by NATO or Ukraine.

Some commentators especially pointed out that among the F-16 fighters that the Western countries will transfer to Ukraine, there will also be planes from the Netherlands, a country that participates in the American program of joint nuclear missions.

The Netherlands is transferring its air force to the new F-35 fighters, which have been given the ability to carry nuclear ammunition, and the old F-16s will indeed be transferred to Ukraine.

But this transfer is not due to the characteristics of the fighters, but due to the fact that the Netherlands has them (as well as Belgium, Norway and Denmark - countries that also promised planes to Ukraine).

NATO leadership usually emphasizes that nuclear weapons possessed by member states can only be used for defense.

Speaking at a forum in St. Petersburg and saying that Russia will always be guided by nuclear doctrine, Vladimir Putin referred to the possibilities of a warning system, to a missile attack by Russia and the United States, and whether the Americans will push Europe into a nuclear conflict with Russia.

And this is not the first time that Putin openly talks about a possible confrontation with the West.

However, NATO believes that Russia actually has no intention of using nuclear weapons.

"We consider it unlikely that Putin will use nuclear weapons in this conflict. And we have no information that he has decided to use this or that weapon of mass destruction, chemical, biological or radioactive. But at the same time, Russian rhetoric remains quite threatening. We consider it irresponsible for the head of any nuclear power [to say such words] in this context," a NATO representative told the BBC.

Meanwhile, in Kiev, they think differently. Alexander Litvinenko, secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, said in an interview with the Times that he does not rule out that Putin could use tactical nuclear weapons if the Russian military is defeated in Ukraine.

A Russian military expert, who spoke to the BBC on condition of anonymity, said the Kremlin's determination should not be underestimated.

"I don't really understand what this trust is based on. We are sure that Putin will not use nuclear weapons... Why?" he asked.