Putin overestimates the price of Ukraine. Why hopes for a peace agreement with the Russian Federation are utopia

Details of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's "victory plan" have not been made public. But Zelensky openly stated: only a strong Ukraine can force Russian President Vladimir Putin to sit down at the negotiating table.

He is right to some extent. As long as Putin believes he can overcome Western support for Ukraine, his war of attrition will continue. The question is how to change his calculations.

Every sane person wants an end to hostilities. To date, around a million people have died or been injured. The war led to mass displacement of the population and widespread destruction of property and infrastructure. This has created new geopolitical instability and disrupted an economy that serves as a global supplier of basic necessities. The impulse to throw in the towel, to accept Putin's conditions, stop the carnage and prevent further escalation, is understandable.

But is such an agreement even possible?

Putin occasionally pretends to be interested in negotiations, but his price—Ukraine renouncing its claims to four illegally annexed regions, plus Crimea, and abandoning hopes of joining NATO—reveals his insincerity. On the contrary, the entire Russian economy has been reoriented to support the war, it continues to buy weapons and technology from rogue countries, and Putin's goal remains the same: Ukraine must be reduced to the level of a Russian vassal.

No matter how desirable a ceasefire is, it will pose enormous risks for Ukraine. First, the pause will give the Russian military time to recruit replacements for the roughly 30,000 soldiers it loses each month, plan new mobilizations, address operational deficiencies and replenish weapons stockpiles. Putin will most likely use such a truce to simply plan new attacks, as he has done many times in the past - especially after his previous invasion of Ukraine in 2014.

In addition, the pause could threaten Ukraine's international support, making it even more difficult to protect it from a resurgent Russia. Many Western allies are already looking for an excuse to divert funds from Ukraine to domestic needs; yes, Germany plans to significantly reduce such aid in the budget for next year. A cessation of hostilities may serve as adequate cover.

Putin has long bet that the West will tire of supporting Ukraine, that the Russian public will remain passive and that his military will receive enough funding to continue fighting. A botched ceasefire could make all these bets more likely to pay off and leave both Ukraine and the West in an even worse position than if hostilities continued.

 

Therefore, the goal of the US and its allies should be to provide maximum support to Ukraine in the negotiations before they begin.

For starters, the West must recognize that any significant funding cuts now will not end the war, but will only strengthen Putin. The funding should continue to strengthen Ukraine's air defense capabilities, increase the supply of ammunition and other weapons, and remove most restrictions on the use of long-range missiles. Only a concerted effort is likely to change Putin's calculations of benefits and costs.

Next, the allies must agree on reliable security guarantees for Ukraine. This is not an easy task, because NATO - for obvious reasons - does not want to extend its open protection to a country that is not a member of the Alliance. Perhaps nuances and ambiguities should be shown. But a collective pledge, explicit or otherwise, to defend Ukrainian-controlled territories must be on the table to deter further aggression.

During his bloody reign, Putin was always ready to break truces, agreements and reject his promises, if he saw a strategic benefit in doing so. There is every reason to believe that he will do the same this time. Without proper precautions, the ceasefire will not end the war, save lives and benefit ordinary Ukrainians. It will have the opposite effect.