Putin is going against NATO: Moscow has started preparing Lukashenka for war with the Alliance

 

Alexander Lukashenko, who meets personally with the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin almost every month, traveled to Russia again. This time, the politician's visit lasted more than three days and included an official and an unofficial part. It should be noted that the local propaganda specifically apostrophized their joint visit to the island of Valaam. Before the Soviet invasion of 1939-1940. year, the archipelago that includes this island belonged to Finland. What did the Kremlin agree with Lukashenka and what could be the consequences of communication between the two allies in the war against Ukraine.

 

Putin and Lukashenko are starting to put pressure on Poland

 

In recent days, Putin is returning more and more to his personal vision and interpretation of history. On July 21, during an online meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, he mentioned that Poland got part of the western countries thanks to Joseph Stalin.

"The western territories of today's Poland are Stalin's gift to the Poles. Have our friends in Warsaw forgotten about that? We will remind them," Putin said.

He also stated that Poland occupied the Vilnius region, which was part of Lithuania, and that the country participated in the division of Czechoslovakia, as a result of the Munich conspiracy with Hitler. And today it is allegedly ready to occupy the neighboring country, if such an opportunity arises.

It should be noted that Putin made similar excursions into history on the eve of the invasion of Ukraine. At that time, there were arguments that Ukraine does not exist as a country, but that everything that exists on the territory of the country was founded and built by the USSR.

 For his part, Lukashenko played with words, saying that the fighters of the private mercenary army "Wagner" want to go on an excursion to the Polish cities of Warsaw and Ryasiv (the latter is relatively close to the border with Ukraine - 102 kilometers to Krakow is the checkpoint).

The "Wagners" started stressing us, they want us to go west. Let us... I say, why do you want to go west? "We are going on an excursion to Warsaw and Ryaszew". And they have this inside, Ryashiv is trouble. Of course, we didn't want to move them there, because they are in a bad mood," Lukashenko said.

It should be noted that the city of Ryashiv is the main railway junction and transport hub, which are involved in the transfer of Western aid to Ukraine.

 

The threat from the east: where the war between the Russian Federation and NATO may begin

 

The presence of the private mercenary army "Wagner" on the territory of Belarus has been confusing the Polish national security and defense forces for some time. An additional military brigade has already been created, which has been transferred to the eastern border of Poland.

Lukashenko did not ignore this issue either, showing Putin a map of the transfer of Polish troops to the borders of the Union - one brigade each near Brest and Grodno.

After Lukashenka's statements about the "desire of a private mercenary army "Wagner", Poland decided to form a new military engineering unit near the Suwal corridor. This was announced by the Minister of Defense of Poland, Mariusz Blaszczak.

Let us remind you that the so-called Suval Corridor is a territory that simultaneously connects the territory of the Baltic countries with Poland and the rest of the NATO countries, and also separates the territory of the Russian Kaliningrad region and Belarus.

By the way, Business Insider called this territory the most problematic in 2018 due to the fact that there is about 100 kilometers of the common border with Belarus in this place. At that time, the Suval Corridor was called the most likely place where Russia's war with NATO would begin.

 

There is too much Poland in the conversation: who and why creates IPSO

 

Focus has already announced that the mercenaries of "Wagner" moved with him to the territory of Belarus after the failed rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Kremlin reported that it funded the mercenaries from the state budget, but later said it had nothing to do with the mercenaries. Under Russian and Belarusian law, private military companies are illegal.

Analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War believe that the presence of "Wagner" and Prigozhin on the territory of Belarus is what worries the Russian president. This explains Lukashenko's three-day visit to Russia to discuss important issues in more detail. At the same time, analysts are sure that Lukashenko's statements about the "trip to Warsaw and Ryashiv" are part of an informational and psychological special operation against the West.

The artificial nature of the psychological pressure is indicated by a strong information campaign about the preparations of the "Wagners" for the invasion of Poland.

Russian human rights defender, founder of the Gulagu.net organization Volodymyr Osechkin, known for his sensational insights about the nuclear attack on Ukraine, said that mercenaries are preparing for military operations on the territory of Europe. In an interview with "Gordon", he said that mercenaries have been recruiting new candidates for further special operations in Poland since the beginning of July.

Kremlin threats: why Putin wants to escalate the situation around Poland

 

In an interview with Focus, the president of the Board of Directors of the Center for Applied Political Research "Penta" Volodymyr Fesenko confirms that the escalation of the situation around Poland is more reminiscent of IPSO (information-psychological special operation - Ed.) - Putin's favorite tool as an old special agent. This operation was created so that both Putin and Lukashenko participated in it.

"Some Russian commentators and observers assume that the threat of an attack on Poland is a kind of feature of Putin's election campaign in the presidential elections in 2024. The factor of the presence of "Wagners" on the border with the EU is a kind of hybrid means of psychological pressure. They want to force the West to negotiate in fear of war in Europe. Some western politicians are afraid of such a development of the scenario, this IPSO is aimed at them - to feel the state,

mood, thoughts. "Earlier, Karaganov threatened a nuclear attack on Poznań, now well-prepared assault troops," he tells Focus.

The expert notes that the topic of the threat of the "Wagnerians" in Belarus began to spread, almost on June 25, immediately after the end of Prigozhin's failed coup attempt.

 

Will NATO use Article 5 in the event of a "Wagner" invasion?

 

For Lukashenko, the private mercenary army "Wagner" now performs two main tasks: first, it trains the Belarusian army. Without exaggeration, the "Wagners" are currently one of the strongest assault units in the world. Second, they solve Lukashenko's internal problems, such as the fight against partisans, opposition resistance movements.

 "The words and actions of the two politicians are a kind of trolling of Europe, there is a direct threat to transfer hostilities to its territory through a proxy formation. "Wagner" has no legal relationship with either Belarus or the Russian Federation, in fact it is an illegal criminal group that can to invade the territory of NATO members. That is, the well-known Article 5 of the Alliance Charter cannot be applied here. All these problems must be solved independently by Poland and the Baltic countries, if we are talking about the Suwal corridor. Poland has already reacted to this by creating an additional military brigade and redeployed the engineering battalion to the border. I remind you that the main task of such battalions is supply for the removal of minefields, "said military expert Oleg Starikov to Focus.

 

Three days in Moscow: what Putin and Lukashenko agreed on

 

Starikov pointed out that Lukashenko's multi-day visit to Putin was aimed at discussing several components at once. First of all, the Kremlin seriously believes that a direct escalation with NATO cannot be avoided in the future. That is why the question of opposing the Alliance was discussed, because Belarus is on the front line of defense of the so-called "Union".

"In Belarus they are publicly demonstrating forces that can be used against NATO. Putin, not out of his kindness, gave Lukashenko the Iskander-M OTRK, capable of carrying nuclear warheads. It is said that Belarusian Su-25s have been modernized to carry nuclear warheads , after all, tactical nuclear weapons are already on the territory of Belarus. Let's also recall the S-400 air defense systems that the Kremlin handed over to Belarus. It seems that the Main 12 administrations of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation have begun to deploy the arsenal on the territory of Belarus - this will mean that puts nuclear weapons on the territory of the republic into combat readiness. Lukashenko really wants to have the keys to this arsenal, because without them his territory will simply be used as a launch pad," says Starikov.

He believes that the information and psychological campaign against Poland should provoke the population to put pressure on the authorities regarding the issue of more arming of the army. Specifically, this request will be transferred to NATO, which is already involved in technical assistance to Ukraine. Then there can be a discussion about who the Alliance should help more at this time.

At the same time, Fesenko reminds that there are risks for Lukashenko in such a political game.

"There are risks here for Lukashenko. If he decided to play with Putin in a hybrid war format, we should not forget that there are many willing people who would be happy to go on an excursion to Minsk," says the political scientist.

He assumes that an offensive should not be expected against Ukraine or Poland. In Belarus, there are "Wagner" mercenaries, they are well trained and have a lot of experience, but without the heavy military equipment necessary for military operations. So, in the end, we can only expect borderline provocations, but nothing more.