Public opinion in Serbia - 'Putinophiles' satisfied
Only one third of Serbian citizens would currently vote for Serbia's entry into the European Union, and as many as 51 percent would vote against it.
Recently, several public opinion surveys have been conducted in Serbia regarding citizens' attitudes towards EU integration and the attitude towards war conflicts in Ukraine. The results are very devastating, when it comes to "Europhiles", while "Putinophiles" can rejoice.
Only one third of Serbian citizens would currently vote for Serbia's entry into the European Union, and as many as 51 percent would vote against it. And this in a situation in which the president of Serbia constantly, but visibly disingenuously, talks about the fact that Serbia's membership in the EU is a strategic goal and the only path it is taking. Opponents of the EU are strongly motivated by the war in Ukraine and homogenized in support of Russia, but a good part of the opponents of European integration are more and more present in Serbia due to the increasingly obvious attitude of Brussels to extend the Union's expansion as long as possible.
When we add these two things together, it is clear that the anti-European mood, or Euroscepticism, has become the dominant political orientation in Serbia. In addition to Brussels, the main culprit is, of course and obviously, the current government in Serbia embodied in Vučić. On the fingers of one hand, we can list government representatives who openly advocate for EU membership. Vučić, we repeat, does not do this sincerely, and for every one of his provocative stories about Serbia's European path towards the EU, we get several cannon shots on Brussels from his closest circle.
"Losing in clusters"
Miroslav Lajčak also points to the guilt of Brussels, who says that he understands the criticism directed at the European Union and claims that Brussels remains indebted to the region. According to him, "Brussels got a little lost in the clusters", and the issue of EU enlargement was reduced to a technical process. Admittedly, he does not understand the constant messages from the region that only the EU is responsible, and constantly blaming Brussels is not a ticket to the EU.
An additional problem for Serbia is the burden of Kosovo on its own back. We all knew, and the government kept it quiet for years, that the recognition of Kosovo is the main condition for Serbia's admission to the EU. When they saw that the negotiations with Pristina were almost non-existent, the international community began to talk about it more and more openly, and Vučić seemed surprised, if not to say, stunned.
How could Vučić imagine that Serbia could become part of the modern European family without recognizing Kosovo. The fact that some EU member states did not recognize Kosovo's independence is not an argument that can help Serbia. The intention of Brussels is clear and there really shouldn't be any dilemma.
That things will only get more complicated in the future is clearly stated by the statement of the President of Serbia regarding the position of the European Parliament that Serbia and Kosovo should recognize each other. The President of Serbia said loud and clear that Serbia will not even consider this message, idea, proposal or request.
The question of neutrality
The question of self-proclaimed neutrality is just ridiculous. Serbia defined itself as a neutral country. Then she slightly revised her position and tied her neutrality exclusively as a military issue. Vučić cut through these dilemmas in public when he said that Serbia is not politically neutral, because it opted for the EU, but it is military and that it does not want to belong to any military alliance. Slovenian President Borut Pahor showed understanding for such a position, who more than benevolently said that Brussels does not mind Serbia's insistence on military neutrality, but that if Belgrade aspires to the EU, then it must harmonize its foreign policy with the policy of the alliance of which it wants to be a member. . However, he clearly said that it is not the time to sit on two chairs.
The argument that Belgrade uses, that Serbia is not a member of the EU and that there is no need to harmonize its foreign policy with that of Brussels, is counterproductive and naive. Does this mean that if Serbia became a member of the EU today, it would immediately impose sanctions on Russia the next day, regardless of the "century-old brotherhood with the Russian people".
The story with Serbia and the EU is therefore extremely problematic. A whole decade of dishonesty from both Belgrade and Brussels can hardly be quickly minimized. This is the attitude of public opinion and no one can change it overnight. Not even that almighty Vučić, who says one thing and does another. If he were to launch all his capacities and resources into a counter-offensive and firmly, decisively and unwaveringly stand by the EU, he would not succeed, because he has caused a lot of damage so far. A man cannot fight against himself. He is basically not European, and so is his closest environment. And the question is whether he wants that. His actions so far show that he reduced everything to calculation. It is as if he is waiting for his relationship in the world of change, for Russia and China to become what the USA and the EU are today. Many believe that.
In order to change that, a serious reset of the entire country is needed. It will be difficult to reach him, especially in the circumstances in which the EU and the USA are seen as not very friendly phenomena. What Vučić lacks is determination. It is completely legitimate to choose that China and Russia, but then it breaks down and bears all the consequences that this decision brings with it. The weather in the world is such that sitting on more than one chair is not allowed. We, so small, cannot push our spite indefinitely. It is smarter to break, than to continue crushing yourself and others. But the decision requires courage, which Vučić does not have, nor will he ever have.