Pro-Russian Telegram channels are synchronously spreading panic and predicting conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina

The Russian militarist Telegram channel Ribar sent a message to its millions of readers stating that “the region is being pushed into escalation,” following the decision of the Prosecutor’s Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina on Wednesday to issue an arrest warrant for Dodik, RS Prime Minister Radovan Višković, and the President of the National Assembly of Republika Srpska (NSRS) Nenad Stevandić, who are suspected of committing the crime of “attacking the constitutional order.”

“Republika Srpska is facing unprecedented pressure, in fact, it is being pushed to form its own structures and declare independence,” the post read, which was further copied and shared on other influential channels.

A number of other smaller channels began publishing similar messages almost at the same time, calling BiH a “time bomb,” after having been silent about events in BiH for some time, since the beginning of the latest crisis caused by Dodik.

The activation of pro-Russian Telegram channels is not coincidentally happening at the same time as the undermining of the constitutional order of BiH, believes Sead Turčalo, dean of the Faculty of Political Sciences in Sarajevo.

"We know that it is a network that includes at least 23 influential channels with almost half a million followers across the region. The main function of these channels is to create a separate media space in which the narrative about the independence of the RS becomes normalized and accepted. This is not about a spontaneous awakening, but about a carefully designed and coordinated propaganda operation whose goal is to prepare the ground for political moves like the ones we are witnessing in the RS," says Turčalo.

The views of the Fishermen almost always coincide with the views and goals of the Kremlin. Ribar is already trying to make a bigger impact in Republika Srpska through efforts to start a school of journalism. The first man of Ribara, Mihail Zvinchuk, who was put on the list of sanctions by European Union countries for supporting actions that undermine and threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine, visited Republika Srpska. Zvinchuk is connected to the authorities in Moscow, and experts consider his actions to be the megaphone of the Kremlin authorities.

This channel also puts into context the increase in the number of EUFOR soldiers and the description of "the most acute crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the last 30 years".

 

Other smaller, but still significant channels whose influence Detektor has previously written about, which have hundreds of thousands of readers, publish similar content independently of Ribar.

 

The Balkanska spletnica channel, with its 30,000 readers, writes that “you should not trust analysts who claim that nothing is happening,” and that “you will not be surprised later.”

“The time bomb set by the Dayton Agreement of 1995 will explode sooner or later. And now it is only a matter of time,” writes the Telegram channel.

Telegram is a perfect platform for spreading such messages, Turčalo explains, because it does not have strict content control and the usual fact-checking mechanisms.

“What is particularly worrying is precisely the synchronization of anti-constitutional activities with inflammatory messages about the collapse of the state, which appear simultaneously on these channels. "This is how, in real time, the perception is being formed that the independence of RS is not only possible but almost certain, and the only solution is even more dangerous because this inflammatory rhetoric is directly linked to Moscow's official policy, because some of the key actors on Telegram channels are already well-known Russian propagandists, including people connected to Putin's party or even former Russian officials like Sergei Baburin, who openly advocates international recognition of RS," says Turčalo.

“This clearly tells us that the situation is not just an internal crisis, but part of a broader plan to destabilize the region. Russia has been using such media strategies for years, always with the aim not only of undermining Euro-Atlantic integration but also of any stabilization of the region,” he adds.

On Thursday, the Balkan website shared a text from the “Social Upad” group, which also announces an escalation.

“The situation in BiH is on the verge of uncontrolled escalation. Sarajevo is demanding the arrest of the RS leadership, Banja Luka is announcing the adoption of a new Constitution. (…) Sarajevo may request EUFOR’s assistance in conducting the operation (…) using the adoption of the new Constitution as a pretext. If this really happens, BiH will find itself in the most serious military-political crisis since 1992,” the publication states, which analyzes the possibility that SIPA will not be ready to detain Dodik.

In our language area, Telegram functions almost as a parallel reality in information, in which citizens seek content that matches their views and as such is a problematic tool for shaping public discourse in the Balkans, believes analyst and digital forensics expert Nataša Kilibarda.

“This is precisely the sphere where the unhindered spread of nationalist, pro-Russian and Eurosceptic narratives, often fueled by information and disinformation campaigns, falls. Various domestic and foreign actors, connected to local ruling structures, use Telegram for propaganda and mobilizing support through anti-Western and pro-Russian messages,” says Kilibarda.

 

Serbski vestnik, another Telegram channel in Russian, also published a text on Wednesday stating that “the laws of the RS, which are valid on the territory of the Serbian entity, will be enforced by Serbs.”

 

“This means that Dodik can only be arrested by force, by sending police/special forces/army, which will be met by special units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Serbia, including anti-terrorist and well-trained ones. The failed state of Bosnia and Herzegovina is falling apart before our eyes,” it states.

The same words, or rather the spread of this content, were taken over by Dejan Berić and published with his 110,000 followers. He is one of the most famous Serbian volunteers in the Russian army, and his channel is the most visited pro-Russian Telegram in BiH, Serbia and Montenegro.

Some channels use the hashtag “#RSexit”, a term first used by Dodik and which has previously appeared when spreading disinformation and news containing announcements of the secession of Republika Srpska from BiH.

In this context, Serbski vestnik explains that “Republika Srpska according to Dayton can have its own army” and that, according to the proposal of the new Constitution of Republika Srpska, this becomes possible again. This is a reaction to the first of two special sessions of the National Assembly of Republika Srpska on the adoption of the new Constitution of RS.

“Article 116 of the RS states that Banja Luka will have its own army, and Article 115 states that the RS can declare military neutrality or enter into military alliances with other states. So, #RSexit is closer than it seems,” the post says.

Kilibarda reminds us that, given the long history of ethnic tensions and political instability in our region, such messages easily find fertile ground, and thanks to their private and decentralized nature, they become a central place for campaigns that use emotions, fear and insecurity to shape public opinion.

“Telegram channels are part of a networked ecosystem where individuals, anonymously or under pseudonyms, very well-coordinated and almost synchronized, amplify the same narratives, creating the effect of ‘echo chambers’ in which users constantly receive confirmation of their views,” says Kilibarda.

Other pro-Russian Telegram channels that have been focusing on the possible arrest of Milorad Dodik since Wednesday have been previously identified by Detektor and other independent media outlets as prone to spreading disinformation. Among them are Istocni front, Bunt je stani duhu, Istok Info, and others.