Peacekeeping forces for Ukraine: what could they look like

One of the most difficult questions in the already difficult negotiations on a possible peace in Ukraine: how to guarantee that a country that has been attacked by Russia and has been resisting its aggression for almost four years will not be attacked again in the foreseeable future? How and what security guarantees should be provided to Kiev so that the price of a new attack becomes too high for Russia?

In the old world order, such missions were almost always the responsibility of the United States. However, the situation has now changed - US President Donald Trump has stated several times that, in his opinion, it is European countries that should take responsibility for Ukraine's security. For his part, he has only proposed that the US provide weapons and equipment for this - but that other partners pay for them.

Merz: "This is very close to NATO forces"

On December 15, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz received Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Berlin. The day before, the Ukrainian leader discussed the US ceasefire and peace plan with US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner - the talks also took place in the German capital. Merz and Zelensky were later joined by heads of state and government from other EU countries.

They issued a joint statement in which they stressed, in particular, the need to create a European multinational force in Ukraine, which would be formed on a voluntary basis within the framework of a "coalition of the willing" and would be supported by the United States. Merz later added that this would be very close to the deployment of NATO forces. The task of these forces, which, in addition to EU countries, could include representatives of Canada and Australia, would be to support the Ukrainian armed forces. The statement also said that the security of airspace and navigation should be guaranteed.

France and Great Britain - for, Germany - waiting

The President of Ukraine also assessed these intentions in a similar way.

"We have just heard from the American side that the United States is ready to provide security guarantees that are in accordance with Article 5 of the NATO Treaty," Zelensky said in Berlin.

This article of the Treaty states that in the event of an attack on one of the NATO countries, all member states of the bloc will consider this an attack on themselves. That is, Ukraine, since it is not a member of NATO, according to the proposed approach, can receive security guarantees similar to those that NATO member countries have.

France and the UK have repeatedly stated their readiness to participate in the deployment of a military contingent in Ukraine. However, Germany continues to take a cautious stance - even despite the Chancellor's latest diplomatic initiative to hold a summit in Berlin. Government circles have repeatedly stated in recent days that the Berlin Declaration leaves open the question of which partners should do what in this coalition.

NATO troops in Ukraine - Russia categorically opposes

Among the countries that signed this declaration are Germany, France, the UK, Poland, Italy, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. In Germany, the decision to send German troops to Ukraine must be approved by the Bundestag. It can be assumed that the opposition party "Union 90/The Greens", which strongly supports Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression, would support such a proposal.

So many questions remain unanswered. And the question of how Russia can be forced to agree to such security guarantees remains completely unclear. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it clear on several occasions that NATO troops would be absolutely unacceptable in the territories that Moscow has encroached on since the peace treaty. Nothing has changed in that regard, and Merz is very aware of that.

"Putin must say yes at some point"

"You saw that in Russia's reaction. This will not mean the end of this war. We must continue together," the chancellor told ZDF. However, he added: "Putin says no to many things, but at some point he must also say yes."

In this confusing overall situation, it seems clear: first there must be a ceasefire, and then an agreement on security guarantees. At the moment, the US seems ready to agree to a plan according to which the troops for the international mission will be provided primarily by Europe, with the Americans supporting them.

And it seems too early to talk about further ideas, including the plan to create a demilitarized zone in Ukraine. So there are still many dilemmas, even if there seems to be a shift and convergence in attitudes that have long been rigid, at least in Europe and the US. However, a ceasefire before Christmas, which some had hoped for in recent weeks, seems less realistic with each passing day.