Peace mission for Ukraine: how realistic is it?

 

One of the topics of discussion during the meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on December 12 in Warsaw was the possibility of inaugurating a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire with Russia. This was announced the day before by several European media. And although Tusk said at a joint press conference with Macron, after the meeting, that there are currently no plans for Poland to participate in such a mission, he confirmed at the same time that the politicians had discussed it, without providing other details.

Instead, Macron, speaking to reporters, did not directly talk about a potential peacekeeping mission, only emphasizing the need to establish "long-term peace" and "long-term security", which must be achieved through the joint efforts of Ukraine, the United States of America and Europe.

"Of course, long-term peace in Ukraine means long-term security in Europe," the French president said.

And such security, according to him, is impossible without coordination between European countries regarding security guarantees for Ukraine after the end of the war.

 

Brussels and Kiev are open to sending peacekeepers

 

Meanwhile, the European Commission has offered to help discuss a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine to secure a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. The spokeswoman of the EU's high representative for foreign policy, Kaye Kallas, said on December 12 that "the EU is ready to coordinate efforts in this direction." Instead, Kallas herself said on the sidelines of a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Berlin that "there is nothing to talk about" until Russia ends its attack on Ukraine. Speaking about the possibility of sending soldiers to Ukraine, she added that "it is up to each European country to decide whether to include soldiers and in which process."

Meanwhile, the idea of a potential peacekeeping mission after the end of the war was open in Ukraine. Ukrainian resident Volodymyr Zelensky said at the beginning of the week:

"We can think and work in Emmanuel's position," referring to the French president.

According to him, such a mission could guarantee Ukraine's security during the transition period - before joining the EU and NATO.

"Understanding our future, these would be very effective guarantees," Zelenskyy added.

 

A peacekeeping mission for Ukraine for 40,000 soldiers?

 

Ahead of the meeting between Macron and Tusk in Warsaw, the Reuters news agency, citing a source among French diplomats, reported on the idea of "creating a coalition of five to eight European countries that do not depend on NATO, but have bilateral agreements with Ukraine and are determined to act". It is known that a potential mission to Ukraine was recently the subject of negotiations between France and Great Britain. In addition, Emmanuel Macron discussed the idea with the leaders of the Scandinavian and Baltic countries and Poland during the NB8 summit in Sweden at the end of November, according to the Polish publication Rzeczpospolita.

 

Before the meeting between Macron and Tusk in Warsaw, it was reported that France has a rather concrete proposal regarding a potential mission in Ukraine. It is, they say, a mission that may consist of five brigades (around 40,000 soldiers), one of which could be commanded by Poland, quotes Elie Tenenbaum, an expert of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), as the publication states. According to journalists, he is working on a relevant project.

At the same time, Politico wrote that the information about the existence of such a project and its discussion in Warsaw was confirmed by an unnamed EU diplomat and a French official. However, there is no official confirmation of this, and DW's inquiry to Eli Tenenbaum remained unanswered at the time of publication.

Austrian military expert Gustav Gressel is convinced that there was a misunderstanding in the discussion about the peacekeeping mission for Ukraine, and obviously the specific plans referred to by the media are irrelevant. According to him, the project of the French institute concerns the situation during the war in Donbass, ie until 2022, when the length of the front was 420 kilometers.

"After Russia's complete invasion of Ukraine, this idea, of course, disappeared, and not only because the front became much longer and there are no troops in Europe that would really somehow protect it with the help of permanent peacekeeping troops," says Gressel.

In addition, according to the opinion of the expert, after seeing "how Russia behaves with the OSCE and the OSCE monitoring mission (in Donbass. - Ed.)", Europe already "has no illusions" about the possibility of sending a mission to Ukraine with a single mission. OSCE or UN mandate. After all, this will require the consent of Russia and China in the UN Security Council, which is "extremely unlikely".

 

Mission for Ukraine in an unknown format

 

Therefore, in what format and under whose mandate the potential peace mission should work, it is not yet known. Macron spoke for the first time about sending Western soldiers to Ukraine back in February of this year. A little later, he called on the EU countries to "not be cowards" and to support Kiev, "without setting any restrictions."

However, this idea did not find widespread support, but it caused a heated debate at the level of the EU and NATO. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski welcomed Macron's initiative, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz categorically rejected it and later repeated his position. The last time was last week, when the head of the German Foreign Ministry, Annalena Berbock, did not rule out the involvement of German soldiers in a potential peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, answering questions from journalists. According to her, Ukrainian partners are discussing international presence to ensure a ceasefire.

According to Gustav Gressel, the European partners are not talking so much about peacekeeping troops in the classical sense of the word, but about a presence like the one that Western NATO countries have on the territory of the Eastern Allies - to deter Russia.

"That is, the troops that will be stationed in Ukraine as a measure within the framework of security guarantees for post-war Ukraine, as the German brigade is now stationed in Lithuania," says the expert. At the same time, he notes that it would be an "absolutely new situation", because Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so it is unclear who and how should act if "Russia decides to protest and attack" these troops.

 

All eyes are on Donald Trump

 

For now, observers are united in one thing: the talks between European leaders regarding Ukraine are aimed at forming a common approach to the moment when Donald Trump takes over the presidency of the United States. After all, he wants an "immediate truce" and the start of negotiations between

Ukraine and Russia, as he recently wrote on his own social network Istina. In addition, Trump has already hinted at the possibility of reducing military aid to Ukraine and once again threatened to withdraw the US from NATO if the other members of the Alliance do not increase the defense budget.

"So we have to work very closely with the Americans and, of course, with Ukraine to find a way that takes into account the interests of Ukraine, its sovereignty, the interests of Europeans and their security," French President Macron said after meeting with Tusk.

At the beginning of December, he met with Trump in Paris, the meeting was also attended by Volodymyr Zelensky.

As reported by the American edition of the Wall Street Journal, citing high-ranking American officials who were familiar with the meeting in Paris, Trump advocated that the Europeans play a major role in protecting and supporting Ukraine. In addition, he advocated sending European troops to Ukraine to secure a possible ceasefire, assuming US support, but excluding the involvement of US troops, the publication noted.

 

France's proactive position

 

Among European countries, France has taken a leading role and is trying to proactively prepare a plan or measures that the EU could take with regard to the war in Ukraine, so that it is not unprepared when Trump takes office, says Gustav Gressel.

"But nothing has been decided yet. That is, there are no clear, written, planned military scenarios, this is still a probing phase," explains Gressel.

However, the main condition for all further plans is the cessation of active hostilities, and this is possible only with Russia's consent, Gressel emphasizes.

"Biden wanted a truce too, but he didn't get it from Putin. I don't see any movement on the part of Russia. As long as they are gaining territory, while they are on the "victory path", so to speak, even if it is a few meters or hundreds of meters to the west, and that is the case, I do not believe that Putin will agree to serious negotiations", concludes the expert.