Operation in the Kursk region: Is Ukraine changing its strategy?

 

Ukraine may have taken the "first step" towards changing its strategy to repel a Russian attack. This is how Jen Spindel, a professor at the University of New Hampshire in the USA, assessed the current events in the Kursk region in an interview with DW.

"Ukraine cannot continue to wage this war as it has done for the past two years. It simply does not have the resources for it - people or weapons," notes the American foreign and security policy expert.

Spindel believes that the Ukrainian "operation" in the Kursk region could be an attempt to change the strategy from "a war against equals to a war of attrition, an asymmetric war." She and her colleagues called for such an approach in a May article in the American magazine Foreign Affairs entitled "How Ukraine Can Achieve More with Less."

"Ukraine shows that Russian territory is no longer inaccessible and that Ukraine will attack Russia in order to force it to divert part of its forces from bombing and destruction in Ukraine," says the expert.

 

Why did Ukraine enter the Kursk region?

 

Three days after the beginning of the raid by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region, there is still little official information about what is happening on the Ukrainian side. Russian sources reported that on the morning of August 6, the forces of the Ukrainian army, using both Ukrainian and Western armored vehicles, entered the territory of the Kursk region, advanced to a depth of about 10 kilometers and dug in. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced that the advance has stopped, and fighting continues in two districts - Suzansk and Korenjevsko.

 

This is the first such direct attack by Ukraine on the territory of the Russian Federation since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February 2022, and not on the occupied territories. In 2023, similar, but smaller-scale operations in the Belgorod region were carried out by armed formations composed of Russians fighting on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The army of the Russian Federation captured two areas along the border in the Kharkiv region in May 2024 before being stopped.

Austrian military historian, Lt. Col. Markus Reisner believes that the Ukrainian operation was carefully planned, while the Russian intelligence service, in his opinion, achieved a "complete failure." He says that Ukraine won a "pure informational victory" because attention is now focused on Kursk, and not on the Donbas, the cities of Toretsk and Khasiv Yar, where "the situation is escalating" for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

If Ukraine manages to hold on to areas in the Kursk region for some time, it could force Russia to regroup and "reduce pressure" on the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass, Reisner believes.

Gustav Gressel, a Berlin-based expert at the think tank European Council on Foreign Policy (ECFR), is more skeptical.

 

"Good for morale, for a war without major consequences" - this is how he evaluates the events in the Kursk Oblast for Ukraine. "There are no signs that Russia will withdraw its forces from the east of Ukraine in order to stop the Ukrainian operation", believes Gresel, "Russia will primarily benefit from stretching the front at the expense of Russian territory, because it will lead to excessive stretching of Ukrainian forces".

Experts also mention other goals of Kiev - improving the position in possible future negotiations with Russia and the desire to demonstrate to the West that Ukraine is able to successfully oppose the Russian army, after the failed counter-offensive in the summer of 2023.

"Perhaps the Ukrainian leadership wants to show Russia, and above all - the West, that the forces are not exhausted and that in the case of continuing the delivery of weapons, Ukraine can still win the war," believes German political scientist and publicist Winfried Schneider-Deters.

 

What will the USA and other partners of Ukraine say?

 

Ukraine has so far refrained from similar attacks due to the position of its Western partners, primarily the United States of America, notes Schneider-Deters. Fearing an escalation from the Russian Federation, Washington, Berlin and others have banned Ukraine from using their weapons donated to Ukrainian forces on Russian territory. Only in the background of the Russian offensive near Kharkiv, the US and other countries eased restrictions in May 2024, but only for strikes on military targets in border areas, but not with all types of weapons. For example, ATACMS missiles can be used by Ukraine only on its territory occupied by the Russian Federation.

So far, the US has been restrained in its response to the events in Kursk, but experts like Jen Spindel are confident that "there have been many high-level talks" between Washington and Kiev and that "in the coming hours and days, efforts will be focused on diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions" - as far as is now possible.

 

How far can the armed forces advance in the Kursk region?

 

According to Spindel, Ukraine's operation in the Kursk region does not aim to "reach Moscow". The expert points out that the further the armed forces advance, the greater the risk that Russia will succeed in cutting off the group's supplies. In her opinion, in order to achieve military goals, Ukraine does not need to go deep into the Russian Federation, but needs to "advance to the place where the strikes are carried out and where the weapons are stored."

At the same time, Ukraine should maintain a balance and take into account the position of the USA, according to Spindel. So far, in her opinion, Ukraine has progressed "enough for the operation to be sensitive for the Russian Federation, but not enough for the fears" of the US and other partners of Ukraine about a possible escalation. In general, Spindel does not expect the events in the Kursk region to bring about "significant changes" in the course of the war. She believes that "such operations will increase, but Ukraine will seek the effect of surprise". According to experts, this is called "taking Russia out of balance".