On China’s Increasing Influence in the Balkans

China’s presence in the Western Balkans has been manifested in the economic dimension for many years, and the influence of the Beijing administration in the region has remained limited in this process. However, China has started to emerge as an important actor in the region in the last decade. This is, of course, one of the most important geopolitical issues driving the European Union (EU). To increase its global influence, Beijing is becoming a key player in various sectors such as infrastructure, media, and energy in the Western Balkans, as in many regions. In addition, China’s inter-institutional relations and economic influence in some Western Balkan countries appear to be growing. Beijing is also increasing its soft power through education and culture.

On the other hand, the stagnation of the EU membership processes of the Western Balkan states and the fact that their development levels are not the same as other European countries facilitate the increase of China’s influence in these countries.

The countries of the region are trying to cope with many economic and political problems, have difficulties in accessing European markets, face the issue of migration, face internal problems, and try to overcome the problem of insufficient investment. Moreover, the EU’s negative attitude towards the Western Balkan states regarding membership opens space for China and similar countries.

China is advancing its relations with the countries of the Western Balkans bilaterally on the one hand and within the framework of the 16+1 with the countries of Eastern and Central Europe on the other. Although China prefers to develop its relations through diplomatic means at this point, it also communicates with non-governmental organizations, local structures and non-state institutions operating in the countries of the region.

In essence, this situation provides China with an opportunity to influence the local population and the people of the region. Yet China’s growing influence is galvanizing the EU. Beijing’s interests and Europe’s strategic, security and economic interests conflict due to China’s growing influence.

The prospect of China’s growing global influence in the short and long term is driving the EU towards the Western Balkans region. The granting of candidate status to Bosnia and Herzegovina is one example.^[1] It is possible to foresee that such incidents may be observed more frequently in the future.

China has different policies and relations with countries in the region. There are advanced economic and political relations with some states and economic and strategic relations with others. In addition, China builds strong relationships with academia, research centers and private companies in the countries where it operates. This reveals Beijing’s interest in the Western Balkans.

The ongoing war in Ukraine is deeply affecting China-Western Balkans relations. Because the war has the potential to affect regional dynamics due to both the sanctions imposed on Russia and the increasing threat from Russia. Therefore, EU countries will raise the issues of membership and candidacy more frequently to attract the states here to their side. As is well known, the relations between the countries of the region and the Union regarding EU membership have not progressed for almost a decade. However, the Ukraine war and the growing interests of China and Russia in the region are mobilizing the EU.

Serbia is China’s most important ally in the Western Balkans. Even though the absence of a clear step from Europe on EU membership for nearly ten years has brought Belgrade closer to Beijing and Moscow, Serbia maintains a policy of staying in balance. However, it may be difficult to maintain this situation in the future. Because relations with Russia lead to a weakening of ties with Western countries. Therefore, there may be a process that will force Serbia to make a choice.

As is well known, Serbia has continued to maintain and expand economic, political, and social relations with China, while continuing negotiations with the EU. The development of these relations, which started with important infrastructure projects in Serbia by China, continues with ties in various fields. Chinese companies are active in many fields such as steel, tire production, energy, and renewable energy. Huawei, one of China’s most important companies, has a significant research reach in the country. China’s opening of the largest cultural center in the country can also be considered as an indicator of the level of bilateral cooperation.

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the situation is slightly different. China’s investments in this country, which suffered greatly during and after independence in the 1990s, have been welcomed. The fact that a route for EU membership was not fully established by the European side also allowed China to increase its influence. The development of economic relations between the parties has also increased the Chinese influence in the country. One example is China’s increasing presence in the country’s energy sector in 2010 and beyond. Another example is the establishment of Confucius Institutes in two different cities and cooperation in the field of education.

Albania is a country with relatively weaker relations with China in the region. Yet this country had deep cooperation with China during the Cold War. However, as the population in Albania has become poorer due to communism, the Tirana administration has started looking for new investors and partners. Although China also has significant economic cooperation with Albania, due to its strategic and geopolitical interests, the Tirana government has moved closer to Western countries, especially the United States (US). Albania, which does not want to lose its place in the West, which has become even stronger after its membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), therefore implements a balanced policy against China.

North Macedonia is one of the countries in the region cooperating with China. At this point, North Macedonia, which is strategically located on the southern route of the Belt and Road Project reaching Europe, could turn this feature into an advantage in its relations with China. Therefore, relations between the two countries are developing. This indicates that North Macedonia is ready to receive more investment and business interest from China.

On the other hand, Kosovo is one of the few countries not only in the Western Balkans but also worldwide where China has no economic footprint. China’s condemnation of Kosovo’s declaration of independence in 2008, which is an important issue for its ally Serbia, is a major obstacle to the development of relations. Also, the Pristina administration is not expected to improve its relations with Beijing due to its pro-Western attitude.

As a result, China’s growing influence in the Western Balkans affects EU interests both positively and negatively. Negative situations have been mentioned above. Undoubtedly, in the Western Balkans, there is a complete absence of a suitable infrastructure for the admission of these non-EU member states to membership. For this reason, it can be seen as positive for the EU that China invests in infrastructure in these countries and gives loans to the countries of the region for various projects. In addition, the entry of these countries into the EU may be promising for China. Because the membership of these countries to the EU may open the door for China to further increase its influence in Europe.