Moscow Works to Reclaim Europe

Kremlin-aligned experts increasingly emphasize the need to repair ties with Europe. But they are not seeking a rapprochement; they want something very different.

Shortly after the New Year, a noteworthy article surfaced on the Military Review website, which is closely associated with the Defense Ministry. In reviewing the year, Russian military analysts began to discuss potential conflicts between France, Great Britain, and the United States.

They concluded that “under present conditions, the possibility of France fully reverting to Gaullism is not exhausted.” The authors expressed hope for a “more independent stance by France,” rather than one “imposed by the Anglo-Saxons”, anticipating a deepening alignment between Paris and Beijing. In this course of events, a “triumvirate of Russia, China, and France” might emerge in the future.

This, like a lot of Russian speculation, may seem odd. But there is some reason for the Kremlin to hope for cracks in the Western alliance. While France has not been at the forefront of the pro-Ukrainian cause, President Macron has certainly become more determined to resist the Kremlin’s aggression.

Russian sympathizers among his far-right opponents in Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally are currently leading the polls with the left-wing alliance, including the communists, second. The president’s approval rating is dismal.

Similarly, commentators on the business newspaper Vzglyad see hope in Germany. They anticipate that amidst strikes and an economic crisis, the current government might step down and that a new administration would be compelled to reduce assistance to Ukraine (set to be $8.7bn this year.) Here too, there is a Russia-friendly far-right party rising in the polls, though the AfD faces serious problems of its own, including a possible ban.

Russia has long sought to divide and weaken the Western alliance, with the KGB penetrating deep into the French government in the 1960s — as in the Sapphire scandal — and supporting those Gaullists wanting to leave NATO. Some 12,000 Stasi agents were active in West Germany during the Cold War — even penetrating the Chancellor’s office in 1974 — and the Russians have continued to achieve notable success in intelligence operations against the now-unified state.

Russian geopolitical thinkers now accept that the 2022 plan to bring Western Europe to heel through energy cuts was a failure. Instead, they explore alternative methods to influence individual Western countries, often under the pretext of “restoring relations.”

Encouraged by the blockage of Western support for Ukraine by one member of the European Union (EU) and a minority of Congress, there is no willingness to negotiate, but rather to have Western Europe subordinated to or at least cowed by, Russia.

Alexander Rahr, Chairman of the Eurasian Society, suggested that such restoration of relations on Russia’s terms might occur “through some Eastern European countries, where a tendency towards traditional values is emerging.”

Statements expressing Russia’s desire for “positive relations with Europe” can even be heard on the propaganda radio Sputnik, and experts from the main Russian analytical center, the Valdai Club, sound surprisingly cordial when they claim that the BRICS countries “do not articulate goals that could be considered a direct challenge to the West.”

It is noteworthy that in the first year of the war, most major Russian media outlets predicted a further deterioration in relations between Russia and the EU, potentially leading to a total rupture.

A year ago, Russian political scientists asserted that “relations between Russia and the West have already reached a point of no return, with no preconditions for the resumption of a full-fledged strategic partnership.”

However, they conceded that “the history and culture of Europe are familiar and relatable to Russians since school,” and that Russian youth is “integrated into the global world, where the rules of communication are familiar and understandable to them.”

That is despite every effort on the regime’s part to shut them off from pernicious Western influences and to rewrite school texts — a Kremlin aide wrote a history textbook for 16-18-year-olds last year.

This recognition of Western influence may in part be a recognition of reality. Nearly two years of war have demonstrated that not only young people, but also Russian elites are unwilling to give up European goods and, more significantly, the Western lifestyle.

Independent journalists report that the entire social life of the elites in modern-day Moscow is either based on the imitation of Western brands or relies on contraband delivery of sanctioned goods.

However, this does not imply that the Kremlin will alter policies to improve relations with Europe. Instead, it signifies an escalation of Russia’s disruptive efforts to fracture the Western bloc and support Moscow-friendly forces in European countries.

This is corroborated by a Washington Post report focusing on Russia’s extensive influence operations in France. Specifically, the materials indicate that Jean-Luc Schaffhauser, a politician formerly representing Le Pen’s party and closely associated with Russia, exerted efforts to bring a network of former generals to power in the event of a crisis and political collapse in France.

According to the report, he personally assured Russian authorities that he would promote a slate of West European far-right leaders willing to engage with Moscow. Against this backdrop, the speculation of Russian military analysts regarding the potential creation of a “triumvirate of Russia, China, and France” no longer appears quite as delusional.

The reinforcement of Russia’s strategy to divide Europe is further detailed by a 2023 report titled “Russia’s Policy towards the Global Majority,” authored by leading Kremlin political analysts Dmitry Trenin, Sergey Karaganov, and Alexander Kramarenko.

The authors acknowledge that the world is not divided into two competing camps. Instead, they recognize that non-Western countries, “with rare exceptions, are not allies of Russia,” and that the “conflict in Ukraine has not split the world into two camps.”

While recognizing that the “global majority” is not inherently anti-West,” the report nonetheless encourages Russia to establish “situational alliances based on interests” with non-Western countries. They emphasize that the “goal of Russia’s foreign policy and foreign economic activities is to break the West’s resolve for confrontation and convince Western capitals to peacefully retreat. This is also the objective of active and initiative policies towards the Global Majority.”

So while the world is not divided into two camps, that’s nonetheless the hope of Russian strategists. Every relationship should be aimed at weakening Western resolve. “As our overall influence grows, the countries of the Global Majority may become a crucial factor in weakening the cohesion of the West,” the report states.

Kremlin analysts are determined to use their allies as weapons against the West, fully aware that these countries do not seek such a confrontation. As always with the regime’s approach to outsiders, it is cynical yet troublingly effective.

Kseniya Kirillova is an analyst focused on Russian society, mentality, propaganda, and foreign policy. The author of numerous articles for the Jamestown Foundation, she has also written for the Atlantic Council, Stratfor, and others.   

Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.